Non-parametric change-point detection in streaming time series data is a long-standing challenge in signal processing. Recent advancements in statistics and machine learning have increasingly addressed this problem for data residing on Riemannian manifolds. One prominent strategy involves monitoring abrupt changes in the center of mass of the time series. Implemented in a streaming fashion, this strategy, however, requires careful step size tuning when computing the updates of the center of mass. In this paper, we propose to leverage robust centroid on manifolds from M-estimation theory to address this issue. Our proposal consists of comparing two centroid estimates: the classical Karcher mean (sensitive to change) versus one defined from Huber's function (robust to change). This comparison leads to the definition of a test statistic whose performance is less sensitive to the underlying estimation method. We propose a stochastic Riemannian optimization algorithm to estimate both robust centroids efficiently. Experiments conducted on both simulated and real-world data across two representative manifolds demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method.

Simulating and controlling physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) are crucial tasks across science and engineering. Recently, diffusion generative models have emerged as a competitive class of methods for these tasks due to their ability to capture long-term dependencies and model high-dimensional states. However, diffusion models typically struggle with handling system states with abrupt changes and generalizing to higher resolutions. In this work, we propose Wavelet Diffusion Neural Operator (WDNO), a novel PDE simulation and control framework that enhances the handling of these complexities. WDNO comprises two key innovations. Firstly, WDNO performs diffusion-based generative modeling in the wavelet domain for the entire trajectory to handle abrupt changes and long-term dependencies effectively. Secondly, to address the issue of poor generalization across different resolutions, which is one of the fundamental tasks in modeling physical systems, we introduce multi-resolution training. We validate WDNO on five physical systems, including 1D advection equation, three challenging physical systems with abrupt changes (1D Burgers' equation, 1D compressible Navier-Stokes equation and 2D incompressible fluid), and a real-world dataset ERA5, which demonstrates superior performance on both simulation and control tasks over state-of-the-art methods, with significant improvements in long-term and detail prediction accuracy. Remarkably, in the challenging context of the 2D high-dimensional and indirect control task aimed at reducing smoke leakage, WDNO reduces the leakage by 33.2% compared to the second-best baseline.

Trend filtering simplifies complex time series data by applying smoothness to filter out noise while emphasizing proximity to the original data. However, existing trend filtering methods fail to reflect abrupt changes in the trend due to `approximateness,' resulting in constant smoothness. This approximateness uniformly filters out the tail distribution of time series data, characterized by extreme values, including both abrupt changes and noise. In this paper, we propose Trend Point Detection formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), a novel approach to identifying essential points that should be reflected in the trend, departing from approximations. We term these essential points as Dynamic Trend Points (DTPs) and extract trends by interpolating them. To identify DTPs, we utilize Reinforcement Learning (RL) within a discrete action space and a forecasting sum-of-squares loss function as a reward, referred to as the Dynamic Trend Filtering network (DTF-net). DTF-net integrates flexible noise filtering, preserving critical original subsequences while removing noise as required for other subsequences. We demonstrate that DTF-net excels at capturing abrupt changes compared to other trend filtering algorithms and enhances forecasting performance, as abrupt changes are predicted rather than smoothed out.

In this study, we consider the infinitely many-armed bandit problems in a rested rotting setting, where the mean reward of an arm may decrease with each pull, while otherwise, it remains unchanged. We explore two scenarios regarding the rotting of rewards: one in which the cumulative amount of rotting is bounded by $V_T$, referred to as the slow-rotting case, and the other in which the cumulative number of rotting instances is bounded by $S_T$, referred to as the abrupt-rotting case. To address the challenge posed by rotting rewards, we introduce an algorithm that utilizes UCB with an adaptive sliding window, designed to manage the bias and variance trade-off arising due to rotting rewards. Our proposed algorithm achieves tight regret bounds for both slow and abrupt rotting scenarios. Lastly, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm using numerical experiments.

We propose a multiresolution Gaussian process to capture long-range, non-Markovian dependencies while allowing for abrupt changes and non-stationarity. The multiresolution GP hierarchically couples a collection of smooth GPs, each defined over an element of a random nested partition. Long-range dependencies are captured by the top-level GP while the partition points define the abrupt changes. Due to the inherent conjugacy of the GPs, one can analytically marginalize the GPs and compute the marginal likelihood of the observations given the partition tree. This property allows for efficient inference of the partition itself, for which we employ graph-theoretic techniques. We apply the multiresolution GP to the analysis of magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings of brain activity.

Change-point detection (CPD) is crucial for identifying abrupt shifts in data, which influence decision-making and efficient resource allocation across various domains. To address the challenges posed by the costly and time-intensive data acquisition in CPD, we introduce the Derivative-Aware Change Detection (DACD) method. It leverages the derivative process of a Gaussian process (GP) for Active Learning (AL), aiming to pinpoint change-point locations effectively. DACD balances the exploitation and exploration of derivative processes through multiple data acquisition functions (AFs). By utilizing GP derivative mean and variance as criteria, DACD sequentially selects the next sampling data point, thus enhancing algorithmic efficiency and ensuring reliable and accurate results. We investigate the effectiveness of DACD method in diverse scenarios and show it outperforms other active learning change-point detection approaches.