Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning algorithms to fit predictive models that help decision-makers reason about likely future outcomes, but we show that this approach is unreliable, and sometimes even dangerous. The key issue is that supervised learning algorithms are highly sensitive to the policy used to choose actions in the training data, which causes the model to capture relationships that do not generalize. We propose using a different learning objective that predicts counterfactuals instead of predicting outcomes under an existing action policy as in supervised learning. To support decision-making in temporal settings, we introduce the Counterfactual Gaussian Process (CGP) to predict the counterfactual future progression of continuous-time trajectories under sequences of future actions. We demonstrate the benefits of the CGP on two important decision-support tasks: risk prediction and "what if?" reasoning for individualized treatment planning.

The amount of data available in the world is growing faster than our ability to deal with it. However, if we take advantage of the internal structure, data may become much smaller for machine learning purposes. In this paper we focus on one of the fundamental machine learning tasks, empirical risk minimization (ERM), and provide faster algorithms with the help from the clustering structure of the data. We introduce a simple notion of raw clustering that can be efficiently computed from the data, and propose two algorithms based on clustering information. Our accelerated algorithm ClusterACDM is built on a novel Haar transformation applied to the dual space of the ERM problem, and our variance-reduction based algorithm ClusterSVRG introduces a new gradient estimator using clustering. Our algorithms outperform their classical counterparts ACDM and SVRG respectively.

We introduce convolutional DRAW, a homogeneous deep generative model achieving state-of-the-art performance in latent variable image modeling. The algorithm naturally stratifies information into higher and lower level details, creating abstract features and as such addressing one of the fundamentally desired properties of representation learning. Furthermore, the hierarchical ordering of its latents creates the opportunity to selectively store global information about an image, yielding a high quality'conceptual compression' framework.

The input-output mappings learned by state-of-the-art neural networks are significantly discontinuous. It is possible to cause a neural network used for image recognition to misclassify its input by applying very specific, hardly perceptible perturbations to the input, called adversarial perturbations. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the existence of these peculiar samples as well as several methods to mitigate them. A proven explanation remains elusive, however. In this work, we take steps towards a formal characterization of adversarial perturbations by deriving lower bounds on the magnitudes of perturbations necessary to change the classification of neural networks. The bounds are experimentally verified on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 data sets.

We present an architecture which lets us train deep, directed generative models with many layers of latent variables. We include deterministic paths between all latent variables and the generated output, and provide a richer set of connections between computations for inference and generation, which enables more effective communication of information throughout the model during training. To improve performance on natural images, we incorporate a lightweight autoregressive model in the reconstruction distribution. These techniques permit end-to-end training of models with 10+ layers of latent variables. Experiments show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard image modelling benchmarks, can expose latent class structure in the absence of label information, and can provide convincing imputations of occluded regions in natural images.

In this paper, we address the problems of identifying linear structural equation models and discovering the constraints they imply. We first extend the half-trek criterion to cover a broader class of models and apply our extension to finding testable constraints implied by the model. We then show that any semi-Markovian linear model can be recursively decomposed into simpler sub-models, resulting in improved identification and constraint discovery power. Finally, we show that, unlike the existing methods developed for linear models, the resulting method subsumes the identification and constraint discovery algorithms for non-parametric models.

We consider the problem of learning causal structures with latent variables using interventions. Our objective is not only to learn the causal graph between the observed variables, but to locate unobserved variables that could confound the relationship between observables. Our approach is stage-wise: We first learn the observable graph, i.e., the induced graph between observable variables. Next we learn the existence and location of the latent variables given the observable graph. We propose an efficient randomized algorithm that can learn the observable graph using O(d\log^2 n) interventions where d is the degree of the graph. We further propose an efficient deterministic variant which uses O(log n + l) interventions, where l is the longest directed path in the graph. Next, we propose an algorithm that uses only O(d^2 log n) interventions that can learn the latents between both non-adjacent and adjacent variables. While a naive baseline approach would require O(n^2) interventions, our combined algorithm can learn the causal graph with latents using O(d log^2 n + d^2 log (n)) interventions.

How do people learn about complex functional structure? Taking inspiration from other areas of cognitive science, we propose that this is accomplished by harnessing compositionality: complex structure is decomposed into simpler building blocks.

We study a stochastic and distributed algorithm for nonconvex problems whose objective consists a sum $N$ nonconvex $L_i/N$-smooth functions, plus a nonsmooth regularizer. The proposed NonconvEx primal-dual SpliTTing (NESTT) algorithm splits the problem into $N$ subproblems, and utilizes an augmented Lagrangian based primal-dual scheme to solve it in a distributed and stochastic manner. With a special non-uniform sampling, a version of NESTT achieves $\epsilon$-stationary solution using $\mathcal{O}((\sum_{i=1}^N\sqrt{L_i/N})^2/\epsilon)$ gradient evaluations, which can be up to $\mathcal{O}(N)$ times better than the (proximal) gradient descent methods. It also achieves Q-linear convergence rate for nonconvex $\ell_1$ penalized quadratic problems with polyhedral constraints. Further, we reveal a fundamental connection between {\it primal-dual} based methods and a few {\it primal only} methods such as IAG/SAG/SAGA.

Generalized Linear Bandits (GLBs), a natural extension of the stochastic linear bandits, has been popular and successful in recent years.