Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its power, the performance of IS is often highly sensitive to the choice of the proposal distribution and frequently requires stochastic calibration techniques. While the design and analysis of IS have been extensively studied in estimation settings, applying IS within stochastic optimization introduces a unique challenge: the decision and the IS distribution are mutually dependent, creating a circular optimization structure. This interdependence complicates both the analysis of convergence for decision iterates and the efficiency of the IS scheme. In this paper, we propose an iterative gradient-based algorithm that jointly updates the decision variable and the IS distribution without requiring time-scale separation between the two. Our method achieves the lowest possible asymptotic variance and guarantees global convergence under convexity of the objective and mild assumptions on the IS distribution family. Furthermore, we show that these properties are preserved under linear constraints by incorporating a recent variant of Nesterov's dual averaging method.

Earthquakes cause harm not only through direct ground shaking but also by triggering secondary ground failures such as landslides and liquefaction. These combined effects lead to devastating consequences, including structural damage and human casualties. A striking illustration is the 2021 Haiti earthquake, which initiated over 7,000 landslides covering more than 80 square kilometers. This catastrophic event resulted in damage or destruction to over 130,000 buildings, claimed 2,248 lives, and left more than 12,200 people injured [1]. Rapidly identifying where and how severely ground failures and structural damage have occurred following an earthquake is essential for effective victim rescue operations within the crucial "Golden 72 Hour" window, and plays a vital role in developing effective post-disaster recovery plans [2, 3]. Over the years, researchers have developed various approaches for estimating the location and intensity of earthquake-induced ground failures and building damage.

Complex systems with intricate causal dependencies challenge accurate prediction. Effective modeling requires precise physical process representation, integration of interdependent factors, and incorporation of multi-resolution observational data. These systems manifest in both static scenarios with instantaneous causal chains and temporal scenarios with evolving dynamics, complicating modeling efforts. Current methods struggle to simultaneously handle varying resolutions, capture physical relationships, model causal dependencies, and incorporate temporal dynamics, especially with inconsistently sampled data from diverse sources. We introduce Temporal-SVGDM: Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model for Multi-resolution observations. Our framework constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution, then couples these SDEs through a causal score mechanism where parent nodes inform child nodes' evolution. This enables unified modeling of both immediate causal effects in static scenarios and evolving dependencies in temporal scenarios. In temporal models, state representations are processed through a sequence prediction model to predict future states based on historical patterns and causal relationships. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, with robust performance under varying levels of background knowledge. Our model exhibits graceful degradation across different disaster types, successfully handling both static earthquake scenarios and temporal hurricane and wildfire scenarios, while maintaining superior performance even with limited data.

Video diffusion models (VDMs) have advanced significantly in recent years, enabling the generation of highly realistic videos and drawing the attention of the community in their potential as world simulators. However, despite their capabilities, VDMs often fail to produce physically plausible videos due to an inherent lack of understanding of physics, resulting in incorrect dynamics and event sequences. T o address this limitation, we propose a novel two-stage image-to-video generation framework that explicitly incorporates physics with vision and language informed physical prior . In the first stage, we employ a Vision Language Model (VLM) as a coarse-grained motion planner, integrating chain-of-thought and physics-aware reasoning to predict a rough motion trajectories/changes that approximate real-world physical dynamics while ensuring the inter-frame consistency. In the second stage, we use the predicted motion trajectories/changes to guide the video generation of a VDM. As the predicted motion trajectories/changes are rough, noise is added during inference to provide freedom to the VDM in generating motion with more fine details. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our framework can produce physically plausible motion, and comparative evaluations highlight the notable superiority of our approach over existing methods. More video results are available on our Project Page: https://madaoer.github.io/projects/

Bayesian optimization based on Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) has a theoretical guarantee for optimizing black-box functions. Black-box functions often have input uncertainty, but even in this case, GP-UCB can be extended to optimize evaluation measures called robustness measures. However, GP-UCB-based methods for robustness measures include a trade-off parameter $\beta$, which must be excessively large to achieve theoretical validity, just like the original GP-UCB. In this study, we propose a new method called randomized robustness measure GP-UCB (RRGP-UCB), which samples the trade-off parameter $\beta$ from a probability distribution based on a chi-squared distribution and avoids explicitly specifying $\beta$. The expected value of $\beta$ is not excessively large. Furthermore, we show that RRGP-UCB provides tight bounds on the expected value of regret based on the optimal solution and estimated solutions. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.

In this paper, we exploit the observation that stochastic variational inference (SVI) is a form of annealing and present a modified SVI approach -- applicable to both large and small datasets -- that allows the amount of annealing done by SVI to be tuned. We are motivated by the fact that, in SVI, the larger the batch size the more approximately Gaussian is the intrinsic noise, but the smaller its variance. This low variance reduces the amount of annealing which is needed to escape bad local optimal solutions. We propose a simple method for achieving both goals of having larger variance noise to escape bad local optimal solutions and more data information to obtain more accurate gradient directions. The idea is to set an actual batch size, which may be the size of the data set, and a smaller effective batch size that matches the larger level of variance at this smaller batch size. The result is an approximation to the maximum entropy stochastic gradient at this variance level. We theoretically motivate our approach for the framework of conjugate exponential family models and illustrate the method empirically on the probabilistic matrix factorization collaborative filter, the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, and the Gaussian mixture model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as computer-use agents, autonomously performing tasks within real desktop or web environments. While this evolution greatly expands practical use cases for humans, it also creates serious security exposures. We present SUDO (Screen-based Universal Detox2Tox Offense), a novel attack framework that systematically bypasses refusal trained safeguards in commercial computer-use agents, such as Claude Computer Use. The core mechanism, Detox2Tox, transforms harmful requests (that agents initially reject) into seemingly benign requests via detoxification, secures detailed instructions from advanced vision language models (VLMs), and then reintroduces malicious content via toxification just before execution. Unlike conventional jailbreaks, SUDO iteratively refines its attacks based on a built-in refusal feedback, making it increasingly effective against robust policy filters. In extensive tests spanning 50 real-world tasks and multiple state-of-the-art VLMs, SUDO achieves a stark attack success rate of 24% (with no refinement), and up to 41% (by its iterative refinement) in Claude Computer Use. By revealing these vulnerabilities and demonstrating the ease with which they can be exploited in real-world computing environments, this paper highlights an immediate need for robust, context-aware safeguards. WARNING: This paper includes harmful or offensive model outputs Our code is available at: https://github.com/AIM-Intelligence/SUDO.git

As the Information Retrieval (IR) field increasingly recognizes the importance of inclusivity, addressing the needs of low-resource languages remains a significant challenge. Transliteration between Urdu and its Romanized form, Roman Urdu, remains underexplored despite the widespread use of both scripts in South Asia. Prior work using RNNs on the Roman-Urdu-Parl dataset showed promising results but suffered from poor domain adaptability and limited evaluation. We propose a transformer-based approach using the m2m100 multilingual translation model, enhanced with masked language modeling (MLM) pretraining and fine-tuning on both Roman-Urdu-Parl and the domain-diverse Dakshina dataset. To address previous evaluation flaws, we introduce rigorous dataset splits and assess performance using BLEU, character-level BLEU, and CHRF. Our model achieves strong transliteration performance, with Char-BLEU scores of 96.37 for Urdu->Roman-Urdu and 97.44 for Roman-Urdu->Urdu. These results outperform both RNN baselines and GPT-4o Mini and demonstrate the effectiveness of multilingual transfer learning for low-resource transliteration tasks.

In this study, we establish a unified framework to deal with the high dimensional matrix completion problem under flexible nonignorable missing mechanisms. Although the matrix completion problem has attracted much attention over the years, there are very sparse works that consider the nonignorable missing mechanism. To address this problem, we derive a row- and column-wise matrix U-statistics type loss function, with the nuclear norm for regularization. A singular value proximal gradient algorithm is developed to solve the proposed optimization problem. We prove the non-asymptotic upper bound of the estimation error's Frobenius norm and show the performance of our method through numerical simulations and real data analysis.

Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi Institute for Data Science and Analytics, Bocconi University, Milan Abstract Accurate tuning of hyperparameters is crucial to ensure that models can generalise effectively across different settings. We construct a variational approximation to a hierarchical Bayes procedure, and derive upper bounds for the contraction rate of the variational posterior in an abstract setting. The theory is applied to various Gaussian process priors and variational classes, resulting in minimax optimal rates. Our theoretical results are accompanied with numerical analysis both on synthetic and real world data sets. Keywords: variational inference, Bayesian model selection, Gaussian processes, nonparametric regression, adaptation, posterior contraction rates 1 Introduction A core challenge in Bayesian statistics is scalability, i.e. the computation of the posterior for large sample sizes. Variational Bayes approximation is a standard approach to speed up inference. Variational posteriors are random probability measures that minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a suitable class of distributions and the otherwise hard to compute posterior. Typically, the variational class of distributions over which the optimisation takes place does not contain the original posterior, hence the variational procedure can be viewed as a projection onto this class. The projected variational distribution then approximates the posterior. During the approximation procedure one inevitably loses information and hence it is important to characterize the accuracy of the approach. Despite the wide use of variational approximations, their theoretical underpinning started to emerge only recently, see for instance Alquier and Ridgway (2020); Yang et al. (2020); Zhang and Gao (2020a); Ray and Szab o (2022). In a Bayesian procedure, the choice of prior reflects the presumed properties of the unknown parameter. In comparison to regular parametric models, where in view of the Bernstein-von Mises theorem the posterior is asymptotically normal, the prior plays a crucial role in the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior. In fact, the large-sample behaviour of the posterior typically depends intricately on the choice of prior hyperparam-eters, so it is vital that these are tuned correctly. The two classical approaches are hierarchical and empirical Bayes methods.