More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable initial distribution and the target distribution of interest which we simulate from approximately using a non-homogeneous Markov chain. To obtain an importance sampling estimate of the marginal likelihood, AIS introduces an extended target distribution to reweight the Markov chain proposal. While much effort has been devoted to improving the proposal distribution used by AIS, by changing the intermediate distributions and corresponding Markov kernels, an underappreciated issue is that AIS uses a convenient but suboptimal extended target distribution. This can hinder its performance.

The deductive closure of an ideal knowledge base (KB) contains exactly the logical queries that the KB can answer. However, in practice KBs are both incomplete and over-specified, failing to answer some queries that have real-world answers. However, experiments in this paper show that QE systems may disagree with deductive reasoning on answers that do not require generalization or relaxation. We address this problem with a novel QE method that is more faithful to deductive reasoning, and show that this leads to better performance on complex queries to incomplete KBs. Finally we show that inserting this new QE module into a neural question-answering system leads to substantial improvements over the state-of-the-art.

Existing approaches for training neural networks with user-level differential privacy (e.g., DP Federated Averaging) in federated learning (FL) settings involve bounding the contribution of each user's model update by {\em clipping} it to some constant value. However there is no good {\em a priori} setting of the clipping norm across tasks and learning settings: the update norm distribution depends on the model architecture and loss, the amount of data on each device, the client learning rate, and possibly various other parameters. We propose a method wherein instead of a fixed clipping norm, one clips to a value at a specified quantile of the update norm distribution, where the value at the quantile is itself estimated online, with differential privacy. The method tracks the quantile closely, uses a negligible amount of privacy budget, is compatible with other federated learning technologies such as compression and secure aggregation, and has a straightforward joint DP analysis with DP-FedAvg. Experiments demonstrate that adaptive clipping to the median update norm works well across a range of federated learning tasks, eliminating the need to tune any clipping hyperparameter.

Motivated by the prevailing paradigm of using unsupervised learning for efficient exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) problems [tang2017exploration,bellemare2016unifying], we investigate when this paradigm is provably efficient. We study episodic Markov decision processes with rich observations generated from a small number of latent states. We present a general algorithmic framework that is built upon two components: an unsupervised learning algorithm and a no-regret tabular RL algorithm. Theoretically, we prove that as long as the unsupervised learning algorithm enjoys a polynomial sample complexity guarantee, we can find a near-optimal policy with sample complexity polynomial in the number of latent states, which is significantly smaller than the number of observations. Empirically, we instantiate our framework on a class of hard exploration problems to demonstrate the practicality of our theory.

A fundamental procedure in the analysis of massive datasets is the construction of similarity graphs. Such graphs play a key role for many downstream tasks, including clustering, classification, graph learning, and nearest neighbor search. For these tasks, it is critical to build graphs which are sparse yet still representative of the underlying data. The benefits of sparsity are twofold: firstly, constructing dense graphs is infeasible in practice for large datasets, and secondly, the runtime of downstream tasks is directly influenced by the sparsity of the similarity graph. In this work, we present Stars: a highly scalable method for building extremely sparse graphs via two-hop spanners, which are graphs where similar points are connected by a path of length at most two.

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dynamical systems. In comparison to conventional parametric models, we offer the possibility to straightforwardly trade off model capacity and computational cost whilst avoiding overfitting. Our main algorithm uses a hybrid inference approach combining variational Bayes and sequential Monte Carlo.

Systematic literature reviews (SLRs) play an essential role in summarising, synthesising and validating scientific evidence. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in using machine learning techniques to automate the identification of relevant studies for SLRs. However, the lack of standardised evaluation datasets makes comparing the performance of such automated literature screening systems difficult. In this paper, we analyse the citation screening evaluation datasets, revealing that many of the available datasets are either too small, suffer from data leakage or have limited applicability to systems treating automated literature screening as a classification task, as opposed to, for example, a retrieval or question-answering task. To address these challenges, we introduce CSMED, a meta-dataset consolidating nine publicly released collections, providing unified access to 325 SLRs from the fields of medicine and computer science.

Web-crawled datasets have enabled remarkable generalization capabilities in recent image-text models such as CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image pre-training) or Flamingo, but little is known about the dataset creation processes. In this work, we introduce a testbed of six publicly available data sources---YFCC, LAION, Conceptual Captions, WIT, RedCaps, Shutterstock---to investigate how pre-training distributions induce robustness in CLIP. We find that the performance of the pre-training data varies substantially across distribution shifts, with no single data source dominating. Moreover, we systematically study the interactions between these data sources and find that mixing multiple sources does not necessarily yield better models, but rather dilutes the robustness of the best individual data source. We complement our empirical findings with theoretical insights from a simple setting, where combining the training data also results in diluted robustness.

Cross-domain disentanglement is the problem of learning representations partitioned into domain-invariant and domain-specific representations, which is a key to successful domain transfer or measuring semantic distance between two domains. Grounded in information theory, we cast the simultaneous learning of domain-invariant and domain-specific representations as a joint objective of multiple information constraints, which does not require adversarial training or gradient reversal layers. We derive a tractable bound of the objective and propose a generative model named Interaction Information Auto-Encoder (IIAE). Our approach reveals insights on the desirable representation for cross-domain disentanglement and its connection to Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE). We demonstrate the validity of our model in the image-to-image translation and the cross-domain retrieval tasks.

Molecular property prediction plays a fundamental role in drug discovery to identify candidate molecules with target properties. However, molecular property prediction is essentially a few-shot problem, which makes it hard to use regular machine learning models. In this paper, we propose Property-Aware Relation networks (PAR) to handle this problem. In comparison to existing works, we leverage the fact that both relevant substructures and relationships among molecules change across different molecular properties. We first introduce a property-aware embedding function to transform the generic molecular embeddings to substructure-aware space relevant to the target property.