Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they are designed to predict. Understanding the causal effect of predictions on the eventual outcomes is crucial for foreseeing the implications of future predictive models and selecting which models to deploy. However, this causal estimation task poses unique challenges: model predictions are usually deterministic functions of input features and highly correlated with outcomes, which can make the causal effects of predictions on outcomes impossible to disentangle from the direct effect of the covariates. We study this problem through the lens of causal identifiability. Despite the hardness of this problem in full generality, we highlight three natural scenarios where the causal effect of predictions can be identified from observational data: randomization in predictions, overparameterization of the predictive model deployed during data collection, and discrete prediction outputs. Empirically we show that given our identifiability conditions hold, standard variants of supervised learning that predict from predictions by treating the prediction as an input feature can find transferable functional relationships that allow for conclusions about newly deployed predictive models.

For these tasks, humans often start with a high-level algorithmic design and implement each part gradually. We introduce Parsel, a framework enabling automatic implementation and validation of complex algorithms with code LLMs. With Parsel, we automatically decompose algorithmic tasks into hierarchical natural language function descriptions and then search over combinations of possible function implementations using tests. We show that Parsel can be used across domains requiring hierarchical reasoning, including program synthesis and robotic planning. We find that, using Parsel, LLMs solve more competition-level problems in the APPS dataset, resulting in pass rates over 75\% higher than prior results from directly sampling AlphaCode and Codex, while often using a smaller sample budget.

Most cloud applications use a large number of smaller sub-components (called microservices) that interact with each other in the form of a complex graph to provide the overall functionality to the user. While the modularity of the microservice architecture is beneficial for rapid software development, maintaining and debugging such a system quickly in cases of failure is challenging. We propose a scalable algorithm for rapidly detecting the root cause of failures in complex microservice architectures. The key ideas behind our novel hierarchical and localized learning approach are: (1) to treat the failure as an intervention on the root cause to quickly detect it, (2) only learn the portion of the causal graph related to the root cause, thus avoiding a large number of costly conditional independence tests, and (3) hierarchically explore the graph. The proposed technique is highly scalable and produces useful insights about the root cause, while the use of traditional techniques becomes infeasible due to high computation time.

This paper studies Dropout Graph Neural Networks (DropGNNs), a new approach that aims to overcome the limitations of standard GNN frameworks. In DropGNNs, we execute multiple runs of a GNN on the input graph, with some of the nodes randomly and independently dropped in each of these runs. Then, we combine the results of these runs to obtain the final result. We prove that DropGNNs can distinguish various graph neighborhoods that cannot be separated by message passing GNNs. We derive theoretical bounds for the number of runs required to ensure a reliable distribution of dropouts, and we prove several properties regarding the expressive capabilities and limits of DropGNNs.

Fine-grained categories that largely share the same set of parts cannot be discriminated based on part information alone, as they mostly differ in the way the local parts relate to the overall global structure of the object. We propose Relational Proxies, a novel approach that leverages the relational information between the global and local views of an object for encoding its semantic label. Starting with a rigorous formalization of the notion of distinguishability between fine-grained categories, we prove the necessary and sufficient conditions that a model must satisfy in order to learn the underlying decision boundaries in the fine-grained setting. We design Relational Proxies based on our theoretical findings and evaluate it on seven challenging fine-grained benchmark datasets and achieve state-of-the-art results on all of them, surpassing the performance of all existing works with a margin exceeding 4% in some cases. We also experimentally validate our theory on fine-grained distinguishability and obtain consistent results across multiple benchmarks.

We propose a causal interpretation of self-attention in the Transformer neural network architecture. We interpret self-attention as a mechanism that estimates a structural equation model for a given input sequence of symbols (tokens). The structural equation model can be interpreted, in turn, as a causal structure over the input symbols under the specific context of the input sequence. Importantly, this interpretation remains valid in the presence of latent confounders. Following this interpretation, we estimate conditional independence relations between input symbols by calculating partial correlations between their corresponding representations in the deepest attention layer.

Although PIFu-based 3D human reconstruction methods are popular, the quality of recovered details is still unsatisfactory. In a sparse (e.g., 3 RGBD sensors) capture setting, the depth noise is typically amplified in the PIFu representation, resulting in flat facial surfaces and geometry-fallible bodies. In this paper, we propose a novel geometry-aware two-scale PIFu for 3D human reconstruction from sparse, noisy inputs. Our key idea is to exploit the complementary properties of depth denoising and 3D reconstruction, for learning a two-scale PIFu representation to reconstruct high-frequency facial details and consistent bodies separately. To this end, we first formulate depth denoising and 3D reconstruction as a multi-task learning problem.

Recognition of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals highly affect the efficiency of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). While recent advances of deep-learning (DL)-based EEG decoders offer improved performances, the development of geometric learning (GL) has attracted much attention for offering exceptional robustness in decoding noisy EEG data. However, there is a lack of studies on the merged use of deep neural networks (DNNs) and geometric learning for EEG decoding. We herein propose a manifold attention network (mAtt), a novel geometric deep learning (GDL)-based model, featuring a manifold attention mechanism that characterizes spatiotemporal representations of EEG data fully on a Riemannian symmetric positive definite (SPD). The evaluation of the proposed mAtt on both time-synchronous and -asyncronous EEG datasets suggests its superiority over other leading DL methods for general EEG decoding.

Text-guided image editing is widely needed in daily life, ranging from personal use to professional applications such as Photoshop.However, existing methods are either zero-shot or trained on an automatically synthesized dataset, which contains a high volume of noise.Thus, they still require lots of manual tuning to produce desirable outcomes in practice.To address this issue, we introduce MagicBrush, the first large-scale, manually annotated dataset for instruction-guided real image editing that covers diverse scenarios: single-turn, multi-turn, mask-provided, and mask-free editing.MagicBrush comprises over 10K manually annotated triplets (source image, instruction, target image), which supports trainining large-scale text-guided image editing models.We fine-tune InstructPix2Pix on MagicBrush and show that the new model can produce much better images according to human evaluation.We further conduct extensive experiments to evaluate current image editing baselines from multiple dimensions including quantitative, qualitative, and human evaluations.The results reveal the challenging nature of our dataset and the gap between current baselines and real-world editing needs.

The success of meta-learning on existing benchmarks is predicated on the assumption that the distribution of meta-training tasks covers meta-testing tasks. Frequent violation of the assumption in applications with either insufficient tasks or a very narrow meta-training task distribution leads to memorization or learner overfitting. Recent solutions have pursued augmentation of meta-training tasks, while it is still an open question to generate both correct and sufficiently imaginary tasks. In this paper, we seek an approach that up-samples meta-training tasks from the task representation via a task up-sampling network. Besides, the resulting approach named Adversarial Task Up-sampling (ATU) suffices to generate tasks that can maximally contribute to the latest meta-learner by maximizing an adversarial loss.