Causal probabilistic networks have proved to be a useful knowledge representation tool for modelling domains where causal relations in a broad sense are a natural way of relating domain objects and where uncertainty is inherited in these relations. This paper outlines an implementation the HUGIN shell--for handling a domain model expressed by a causal probabilistic network. The only topological restriction imposed on the network is that, it must not contain any directed loops. The approach is illustrated step by step by solving a. genetic breeding problem. A graph representation of the domain model is interactively created by using instances of the basic network components—nodes and arcs—as building blocks. This structure, together with the quantitative relations between nodes and their immediate causes expressed as conditional probabilities, are automatically transformed into a tree structure, a junction tree. Here a computationally efficient and conceptually simple algebra of Bayesian belief universes supports incorporation of new evidence, propagation of information, and calculation of revised beliefs in the states of the nodes in the network. Finally, as an example of a real world application, MUN1N an expert system for electromyography is discussed.IJCAI-89, Vol. 2, pp. 1080–1085

Proc. Eleventh Intl. Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (pp. 731-737). Detroit, MI: IJCAII.

In IJCAI-89, pp. 334–340.

"In propositional logic (zero order) a system of logical rules may be put under the form of a conjunction of disjunction, i.e. a “satisfiability” or SAT-problem. SAT is central to NP-complete problems. Any result obtained on SAT would have consequences for a lot of problems important in artificial intelligence. We deal with the question of the number N of solutions of SAT. Firstly, any system of SAT clauses may be transformed in a system of independent clauses by an exponential process; N may be computed exactly. Secondly, by a statistical approach, results are obtained showing that for a given SAT-instance, it should be possible to find an estimate of N with a margin of confidence in polynomial time. Thirdly, we demonstrate the usefulness of these ideas on large knowledge bases." Int. J. Patt. Recogn. Artif. Intell. 03, 53 (1989).

Proc. Eleventh Intl. Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (pp. 681-687). Detroit, MI: IJCAII.

In ISRR-89.

In IJCAI-89, Vol. 1, pp. 290-296.

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