Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns. To address the non-stationarity, reversible instance normalization has been recently proposed to alleviate impacts from the trend with certain statistical measures, e.g., mean and variance. Although they demonstrate improved predictive accuracy, they are limited to expressing basic trends and are incapable of handling seasonal patterns. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a new instance normalization solution, called frequency adaptive normalization (FAN), which extends instance normalization in handling both dynamic trend and seasonal patterns. Specifically, we employ the Fourier transform to identify instance-wise predominant frequent components that cover most non-stationary factors. Furthermore, the discrepancy of those frequency components between inputs and outputs is explicitly modeled as a prediction task with a simple MLP model. FAN is a model-agnostic method that can be applied to arbitrary predictive backbones. We instantiate FAN on four widely used forecasting models as the backbone and evaluate their prediction performance improvements on eight benchmark datasets. FAN demonstrates significant performance advancement, achieving 7.76% 37.90% average improvements in MSE.

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the form of computational uncertainty, which enables--at the cost of quadratic complexity--an explicit tradeoff between computational efficiency and precision. Here we extend this development to model selection, which requires significant enhancements to the existing approach, including linear-time scaling in the size of the dataset. We propose a novel training loss for hyperparameter optimization and demonstrate empirically that the resulting method can outperform SGPR, CGGP and SVGP, state-of-the-art methods for GP model selection, on medium to largescale datasets. Our experiments show that model selection for computation-aware GPs trained on 1.8 million data points can be done within a few hours on a single GPU. As a result of this work, Gaussian processes can be trained on large-scale datasets without significantly compromising their ability to quantify uncertainty-- a fundamental prerequisite for optimal decision-making.

Current SOTA adversarially robust models are mostly based on adversarial training (AT) and differ only by some regularizers either at inner maximization or outer minimization steps. Being repetitive in nature during the inner maximization step, they take a huge time to train. We propose a non-iterative method that enforces the following ideas during training. Attribution maps are more aligned to the actual object in the image for adversarially robust models compared to naturally trained models. Also, the allowed set of pixels to perturb an image (that changes model decision) should be restricted to the object pixels only, which reduces the attack strength by limiting the attack space. Our method achieves significant performance gains with a little extra effort (10-20%) over existing AT models and outperforms all other methods in terms of adversarial as well as natural accuracy. We have performed extensive experimentation with CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and TinyImageNet datasets and reported results against many popular strong adversarial attacks to prove the effectiveness of our method.

For each prediction task, we select features that have a causal influence on the target of prediction.

This paper presents a method for estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and a prediction question and asked to generate a response. One interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM computes the posterior predictive of an unknown Bayesian model, which implicitly defines a joint distribution over observable datasets and latent mechanisms. This joint distribution factorizes into two components: the model prior over mechanisms and the model likelihood of datasets given a mechanism. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated response to the prediction question with low model likelihood given the mechanism. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating prediction questions and responses from the CGM and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method using large language models for synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks.

Selective rationalization explains the prediction of complex neural networks by finding a small subset of the input that is sufficient to predict the neural model output. The selection mechanism is commonly integrated into the model itself by specifying a two-component cascaded system consisting of a rationale generator, which makes a binary selection of the input features (which is the rationale), and a predictor, which predicts the output based only on the selected features. The components are trained jointly to optimize prediction performance. In this paper, we reveal a major problem with such cooperative rationalization paradigm -- model interlocking. Interlocking arises when the predictor overfits to the features selected by the generator thus reinforcing the generator's selection even if the selected rationales are sub-optimal. The fundamental cause of the interlocking problem is that the rationalization objective to be minimized is concave with respect to the generator's selection policy.