Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be challenging to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include discriminative machine learning, hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, clustering algorithms, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We demonstrate the integration of CGPMs into BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform that can express data analysis tasks using a modeling definition language and structured query language. The practical value is illustrated in two ways.

Two seemingly contradictory theories attempt to explain how humans move to intercept an airborne ball. One theory posits that humans predict the ball trajectory to optimally plan future actions; the other claims that, instead of performing such complicated computations, humans employ heuristics to reactively choose appropriate actions based on immediate visual feedback. In this paper, we show that interception strategies appearing to be heuristics can be understood as computational solutions to the optimal control problem faced by a ball-catching agent acting under uncertainty. Modeling catching as a continuous partially observable Markov decision process and employing stochastic optimal control theory, we discover that the four main heuristics described in the literature are optimal solutions if the catcher has sufficient time to continuously visually track the ball. Specifically, by varying model parameters such as noise, time to ground contact, and perceptual latency, we show that different strategies arise under different circumstances.

Rapid categorization paradigms have a long history in experimental psychology: Characterized by short presentation times and speeded behavioral responses, these tasks highlight the efficiency with which our visual system processes natural object categories. Previous studies have shown that feed-forward hierarchical models of the visual cortex provide a good fit to human visual decisions. At the same time, recent work in computer vision has demonstrated significant gains in object recognition accuracy with increasingly deep hierarchical architectures. But it is unclear how well these models account for human visual decisions and what they may reveal about the underlying brain processes. We have conducted a large-scale psychophysics study to assess the correlation between computational models and human behavioral responses on a rapid animal vs. non-animal categorization task. We considered visual representations of varying complexity by analyzing the output of different stages of processing in three state-of-the-art deep networks.

Agentic AI is poised to take on a much more central role in the IT industry, according to a new report from Cisco. The report, titled "The Race to an Agentic Future: How Agentic AI Will Transform Customer Experience," surveyed close to 8,000 business leaders across 30 countries, all of whom routinely work closely with customer service professionals from B2B technology services. In broad strokes, it paints a picture of a business landscape eager to embrace the rising wave of AI agents, particularly when it comes to customer service. Also: Can you build a billion-dollar business with only AI agents (yet)? As soon as next year, according to the report, over half (68%) of all customer service and support interactions with tech vendors could become automated, thanks to agentic AI.

Neural networks augmented with external memory have the ability to learn algorithmic solutions to complex tasks. These models appear promising for applications such as language modeling and machine translation. However, they scale poorly in both space and time as the amount of memory grows --- limiting their applicability to real-world domains. Here, we present an end-to-end differentiable memory access scheme, which we call Sparse Access Memory (SAM), that retains the representational power of the original approaches whilst training efficiently with very large memories. We show that SAM achieves asymptotic lower bounds in space and time complexity, and find that an implementation runs 1,\!000\times faster and with 3,\!000\times less physical memory than non-sparse models. SAM learns with comparable data efficiency to existing models on a range of synthetic tasks and one-shot Omniglot character recognition, and can scale to tasks requiring 100,\!000 s of time steps and memories.

We provide two fundamental results on the population (infinite-sample) likelihood function of Gaussian mixture models with M \geq 3 components. Our first main result shows that the population likelihood function has bad local maxima even in the special case of equally-weighted mixtures of well-separated and spherical Gaussians. We prove that the log-likelihood value of these bad local maxima can be arbitrarily worse than that of any global optimum, thereby resolving an open question of Srebro (2007). Our second main result shows that the EM algorithm (or a first-order variant of it) with random initialization will converge to bad critical points with probability at least 1-e {-\Omega(M)} . We further establish that a first-order variant of EM will not converge to strict saddle points almost surely, indicating that the poor performance of the first-order method can be attributed to the existence of bad local maxima rather than bad saddle points.

We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any graphical model, can be optimized with respect to an arbitrary subset of its sampled variables. To carry out this optimization, we develop the first Bayesian optimization package to directly exploit the source code of its target, leading to innovations in problem-independent hyperpriors, unbounded optimization, and implicit constraint satisfaction; delivering significant performance improvements over prominent existing packages.

We introduce a new machine learning approach for image segmentation that uses a neural network to model the conditional energy of a segmentation given an image. Our approach, combinatorial energy learning for image segmentation (CELIS) places a particular emphasis on modeling the inherent combinatorial nature of dense image segmentation problems. We propose efficient algorithms for learning deep neural networks to model the energy function, and for local optimization of this energy in the space of supervoxel agglomerations. We extensively evaluate our method on a publicly available 3-D microscopy dataset with 25 billion voxels of ground truth data. On an 11 billion voxel test set, we find that our method improves volumetric reconstruction accuracy by more than 20% as compared to two state-of-the-art baseline methods: graph-based segmentation of the output of a 3-D convolutional neural network trained to predict boundaries, as well as a random forest classifier trained to agglomerate supervoxels that were generated by a 3-D convolutional neural network.

Sequence-to-sequence models have achieved impressive results on various tasks. However, they are unsuitable for tasks that require incremental predictions to be made as more data arrives or tasks that have long input sequences and output sequences. This is because they generate an output sequence conditioned on an entire input sequence. In this paper, we present a Neural Transducer that can make incremental predictions as more input arrives, without redoing the entire computation. Unlike sequence-to-sequence models, the Neural Transducer computes the next-step distribution conditioned on the partially observed input sequence and the partially generated sequence.

Influence maximization in social networks has typically been studied in the context of contagion models and irreversible processes. In this paper, we consider an alternate model that treats individual opinions as spins in an Ising system at dynamic equilibrium. We formalize the \textit{Ising influence maximization} problem, which has a natural physical interpretation as maximizing the magnetization given a budget of external magnetic field. Under the mean-field (MF) approximation, we present a gradient ascent algorithm that uses the susceptibility to efficiently calculate local maxima of the magnetization, and we develop a number of sufficient conditions for when the MF magnetization is concave and our algorithm converges to a global optimum. We apply our algorithm on random and real-world networks, demonstrating, remarkably, that the MF optimal external fields (i.e., the external fields which maximize the MF magnetization) exhibit a phase transition from focusing on high-degree individuals at high temperatures to focusing on low-degree individuals at low temperatures.