This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect potential model limitations or biases. This can be useful to find a practical compromise between efficiency--by providing informative predictions--and algorithmic fairness-- by ensuring equalized coverage for the most sensitive groups. We demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of this method on simulated and real data sets.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently achieved remarkable advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) due to their powerful ability of sequence dependence modeling. To date, existing DNN-based TSF methods still suffer from unreliable predictions for real-world data due to its non-stationarity characteristics, i.e., data distribution varies quickly over time. To mitigate this issue, several normalization methods (e.g., SAN) have recently been specifically designed by normalization in a fixed period/window in the time domain. However, these methods still struggle to capture distribution variations, due to the complex time patterns of time series in the time domain. Based on the fact that wavelet transform can decompose time series into a linear combination of different frequencies, which exhibits distribution variations with time-varying periods, we propose a novel Dual-domain Dynamic Normalization (DDN) to dynamically capture distribution variations in both time and frequency domains. Specifically, our DDN tries to eliminate the non-stationarity of time series via both frequency and time domain normalization in a sliding window way. Besides, our DDN can serve as a plug-in-play module, and thus can be easily incorporated into other forecasting models. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets under different forecasting models demonstrate the superiority of our DDN over other normalization methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Hank0626/DDN.

Time-series anomaly detection is a fundamental task across scientific fields and industries. However, the field has long faced the "elephant in the room:" critical issues including flawed datasets, biased evaluation measures, and inconsistent benchmarking practices that have remained largely ignored and unaddressed. We introduce the TSB-AD to systematically tackle these issues in the following three aspects: (i) Dataset Integrity: with 1070 high-quality time series from a diverse collection of 40 datasets (doubling the size of the largest collection and four times the number of existing curated datasets), we provide the first large-scale, heterogeneous, meticulously curated dataset that combines the effort of human perception and model interpretation; (ii) Measure Reliability: by revealing issues and biases in evaluation measures, we identify the most reliable and accurate measure, namely, VUS-PR for anomaly detection in time series to address concerns from the community; and (iii) Comprehensive Benchmarking: with a broad spectrum of 40 detection algorithms, from statistical methods to the latest foundation models, we perform a comprehensive evaluation that includes a thorough hyperparameter tuning and a unified setup for a fair and reproducible comparison. Our findings challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the superiority of advanced neural network architectures, revealing that simpler architectures and statistical methods often yield better performance. The promising performance of neural networks on multivariate cases and foundation models on point anomalies highlights the need for further advancements in these methods.

General-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) systems are built on massive swathes of public web data, assembled into corpora such as C4, RefinedWeb, and Dolma. To our knowledge, we conduct the first, large-scale, longitudinal audit of the consent protocols for the web domains underlying AI training corpora. Our audit of 14, 000 web domains provides an expansive view of crawlable web data and how codified data use preferences are changing over time. We observe a proliferation of AIspecific clauses to limit use, acute differences in restrictions on AI developers, as well as general inconsistencies between websites' expressed intentions in their Terms of Service and their robots.txt. We diagnose these as symptoms of ineffective web protocols, not designed to cope with the widespread re-purposing of the internet for AI.

Time series forecasting has been a widely explored task of great importance in many applications. However, it is common that real-world time series data are recorded in a short time period, which results in a big gap between the deep model and the limited and noisy time series.

Data science and engineering workflows often span multiple stages, from warehousing to orchestration, using tools like BigQuery, dbt, and Airbyte.

Spatio-temporal (ST) prediction has garnered a De facto attention in earth sciences, such as meteorological prediction, human mobility perception. However, the scarcity of data coupled with the high expenses involved in sensor deployment results in notable data imbalances. Furthermore, models that are excessively customized and devoid of causal connections further undermine the generalizability and interpretability. To this end, we establish a framework for ST predictions from a causal perspective, termed CaPaint, which targets to identify causal regions in data and endow model with causal reasoning ability in a two-stage process. Going beyond this process, we build on the front door adjustment as the theoretical foundation to specifically address the sub-regions identified as non-causal in the upstream phase.

Obtaining scalable algorithms for hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) is of significant interest due to the massive size of real-world datasets. At the same time, efficiently parallelizing HAC is difficult due to the seemingly sequential nature of the algorithm. In this paper, we address this issue and present ParHAC, the first efficient parallel HAC algorithm with sublinear depth for the widely-used averagelinkage function. In particular, we provide a (1 + ɛ)-approximation algorithm for this problem on m edge graphs using Õ(m) work and poly-logarithmic depth. Moreover, we show that obtaining similar bounds for exact average-linkage HAC is not possible under standard complexity-theoretic assumptions. We complement our theoretical results with a comprehensive study of the ParHAC algorithm in terms of its scalability, performance, and quality, and compare with several state-of-the-art sequential and parallel baselines. On a broad set of large publicly-available real-world datasets, we find that ParHAC obtains a 50.1x speedup on average over the best sequential baseline, while achieving quality similar to the exact HAC algorithm. We also show that ParHAC can cluster one of the largest publicly available graph datasets with 124 billion edges in a little over three hours using a commodity multicore machine.

In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decisionmaking. Recognizing the complementary roles of point and interval predictions, we introduce Self-Calibrating Conformal Prediction, a method that combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction to deliver calibrated point predictions alongside prediction intervals with finite-sample validity conditional on these predictions. To achieve this, we extend the original Venn-Abers procedure from binary classification to regression. Our theoretical framework supports analyzing conformal prediction methods that involve calibrating model predictions and subsequently constructing conditionally valid prediction intervals on the same data, where the conditioning set or conformity scores may depend on the calibrated predictions. Real-data experiments show that our method improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers a practical alternative to feature-conditional validity.