Using social media for political discourse is becoming common practice, especially around election time. One interesting aspect of this trend is the possibility of pulsing the public’s opinion about the elections, and that has attracted the interest of many researchers and the press. Allegedly, predicting electoral outcomes from social media data can be feasible and even simple. Positive results have been reported, but without an analysis on what principle enables them. Our work puts to test the purported predictive power of socialmedia metrics against the 2010 US congressional elections. Here, we applied techniques that had reportedly led to positive election predictions in the past, on the Twitter data collected from the 2010 US congressional elections. Unfortunately, we find no correlation between the analysis results and the electoral outcomes, contradicting previous reports. Observing that 80 years of polling research would support our findings, we argue that one should not be accepting predictions about events using social media data as a black box. Instead, scholarly research should be accompanied by a model explaining the predictive power of social media, when there is one.

Recommender systems are increasingly used for personalised navigation through large amounts of information, especially in the e-commerce domain for product purchase advice. Whilst much research effort is spent on developing recommenders further, there is little to no effort spent on analysing the impact of them - neither on the supply (company) nor demand (consumer) side. In this paper, we investigate the diversity impact of a movie recommender. We define diversity for different parts of the domain and measure it in different ways. The novelty of our work is the usage of real rating data (from Netflix) and a recommender system for investigating the (hypothetical) effects of various configurations of the system and users' choice models.We consider a number of different scenarios (which differ in the agent's choice model), run very extensive simulations, analyse various measurements regarding experimental validation and diversity, and report on selected findings. The choice models are an essential part of our work, since these can be influenced by the owner of the recommender once deployed.

The central idea in designing various marketing strategies for online social networks is to identify the influencers in the network. The influential individuals induce ``word-of-mouth" effects in the network. These individuals are responsible for triggering long cascades of influence that convince their peers to perform a similar action (buying a product, for instance). Targeting these influentials usually leads to a vast spread of the information across the network. Hence it is important to identify such individuals in a network. One way to measure an individual's influencing capability on its peers is by its reach for a certain action. We formulate identifying the influencers in a network as a problem of predicting the average depth of cascades an individual can trigger. We first empirically identify factors that play crucial role in triggering long cascades. Based on the analysis, we build a model for predicting the cascades triggered by a user for an action. The model uses features like influencing capabilities of the user and their friends, influencing capabilities of the particular action and other user and network characteristics. Experiments show that the model effectively improves the predictions over several baselines.

We present a large-scale study of user behavior in Foursquare, conducted on a dataset of about 700 thousand users that spans a period of more than 100 days. We analyze user checkin dynamics, demonstrating how it reveals meaningful spatio-temporal patterns and offers the opportunity to study both user mobility and urban spaces. Our aim is to inform on how scientific researchers could utilise data generated in Location-based Social Networks to attain a deeper understanding of human mobility and how developers may take advantage of such systems to enhance applications such as recommender systems.

In this paper, we investigate the utility of linguistic features for detecting the sentiment of Twitter messages. We evaluate the usefulness of existing lexical resources as well as features that capture information about the informal and creative language used in microblogging. We take a supervied approach to the problem, but leverage existing hashtags in the Twitter data for building training data.

This paper aims to shed some light on the concept of virality - especially in social networks - and to provide new insights on its structure. We argue that: (a) virality is a phenomenon strictly connected to the nature of the content being spread, rather than to the influencers who spread it (b) virality is a phenomenon with many facets, i.e. under this generic term several different effects of persuasive communication are comprised and they only partially overlap. To give ground to our claims, we provide initial experiments in a machine learning framework to show how various aspects of virality can be independently predicted according to content features.

We study astroturf political campaigns on microblogging platforms: politically-motivated individuals and organizations that use multiple centrally-controlled accounts to create the appearance of widespread support for a candidate or opinion. We describe a machine learning framework that combines topological, content-based and crowdsourced features of information diffusion networks on Twitter to detect the early stages of viral spreading of political misinformation.  We present promising preliminary results with better than 96% accuracy in the detection of astroturf content in the run-up to the 2010 U.S. midterm elections.

Twitter is a very popular way for people to share information on a bewildering multitude of topics. Tweets are propagated using a variety of channels: by following users or lists, by searching or by retweeting. Of these vectors, retweeting is arguably the most effective, as it can potentially reach the most people, given its viral nature. A key task is predicting if a tweet will be retweeted, and solving this problem furthers our understanding of message propagation within large user communities. We carry out a human experiment on the task of deciding whether a tweet will be retweeted which shows that the task is possible, as human performance levels are much above chance. Using a machine learning approach based on the passive-aggressive algorithm, we are able to automatically predict retweets as well as humans. Analyzing the learned model, we find that performance is dominated by social features, but that tweet features add a substantial boost.

Crowdsourced labor markets represent a powerful new paradigm for accomplishing work. Understanding the motivating factors that lead to high quality work could have significant benefits. However, researchers have so far found that motivating factors such as increased monetary reward generally increase workers’ willingness to accept a task or the speed at which a task is completed, but do not improve the quality of the work. We hypothesize that factors that increase the intrinsic motivation of a task – such as framing a task as helping others – may succeed in improving output quality where extrinsic motivators such as increased pay do not. In this paper we present an experiment testing this hypothesis along with a novel experimental design that enables controlled experimentation with intrinsic and extrinsic motivators in Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, a popular crowdsourcing task market. Results suggest that intrinsic motivation can indeed improve the quality of workers’ output, confirming our hypothesis. Furthermore, we find a synergistic interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic motivators that runs contrary to previous literature suggesting “crowding out” effects. Our results have significant practical and theoretical implications for crowd work.

As online social networks expand their role beyond maintaining existing relationships, they may look to more faceted ratings to support the formation of new connections between their users. Our study focuses on one community employing faceted ratings, CouchSurfing.org, and combines data analysis of ratings, a large-scale survey, and in-depth interviews. In order to understand the ratings, we revisit the notions of friendship and trust and uncover an asymmetry: close friendship includes trust, but high levels of trust can be achieved without close friendship. To users, providing faceted ratings presents challenges, including differentiating and quantifying inherently subjective feelings such as friendship and trust, concern over a friend's reaction to a rating, and knowledge of how ratings can affect others' reputations. One consequence of these issues is the near absence of negative feedback, even though a small portion of actual experiences and privately held ratings are negative. We show how users take this into account when formulating and interpreting ratings, and discuss designs that could encourage more balanced feedback.