Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by injecting pairwise qualitative causal knowledge such as'event Z amplifies future occurrences of event Y'. We establish a new framework for causal inference in temporal event sequences using a transformer architecture, providing a theoretical justification for our approach, and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of the proposed measure. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy by effectively leveraging knowledge about causal pairs. We also consider a unique application where we extract knowledge around sequences of societal events by generating them from a large language model, and demonstrate how a causal knowledge graph can help with event prediction in such sequences. Overall, our framework offers a practical means of improving the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by explicitly exploiting pairwise causal information.

We study a generalization of classical active learning to real-world settings with concrete prediction targets where sampling is restricted to an accessible region of the domain, while prediction targets may lie outside this region. We analyze a family of decision rules that sample adaptively to minimize uncertainty about prediction targets. We are the first to show, under general regularity assumptions, that such decision rules converge uniformly to the smallest possible uncertainty obtainable from the accessible data. We demonstrate their strong sample efficiency in two key applications: active fine-tuning of large neural networks and safe Bayesian optimization, where they achieve state-of-the-art performance.

This paper investigates an under-explored challenge in large language models (LLMs): chain-of-thought prompting with noisy rationales, which include irrelevant or inaccurate reasoning thoughts within examples used for in-context learning. We construct NoRa dataset that is tailored to evaluate the robustness of reasoning in the presence of noisy rationales. Our findings on NoRa dataset reveal a prevalent vulnerability to such noise among current LLMs, with existing robust methods like self-correction and self-consistency showing limited efficacy. Notably, compared to prompting with clean rationales, GPT-3.5 drops by 1.4%-19.8% in accuracy with irrelevant thoughts and more drastically by 2.2%-40.4% with inaccurate thoughts. Addressing this challenge necessitates external supervision that should be accessible in practice. Here, we propose the method of contrastive denoising with noisy chain-of-thought (CD-CoT). It enhances LLMs' denoising-reasoning capabilities by contrasting noisy rationales with only one clean rationale, which can be the minimal requirement for denoising-purpose prompting. This method follows a principle of exploration and exploitation: (1) rephrasing and selecting rationales in the input space to achieve explicit denoising and (2) exploring diverse reasoning paths and voting on answers in the output space. Empirically, CD-CoT demonstrates an average improvement of 17.8% in accuracy over the base model and shows significantly stronger denoising capabilities than baseline methods.

We propose Pgx, a suite of board game reinforcement learning (RL) environments written in JAX and optimized for GPU/TPU accelerators. By leveraging JAX's auto-vectorization and parallelization over accelerators, Pgx can efficiently scale to thousands of simultaneous simulations over accelerators. In our experiments on a DGX-A100 workstation, we discovered that Pgx can simulate RL environments 10-100x faster than existing implementations available in Python. Pgx includes RL environments commonly used as benchmarks in RL research, such as backgammon, chess, shogi, and Go. Additionally, Pgx offers miniature game sets and baseline models to facilitate rapid research cycles. We demonstrate the efficient training of the Gumbel AlphaZero algorithm with Pgx environments. Overall, Pgx provides high-performance environment simulators for researchers to accelerate their RL experiments. Pgx is available at https://github.com/sotetsuk/pgx.

Building generally capable agents is a grand challenge for deep reinforcement learning (RL). To approach this challenge practically, we outline two key desiderata: 1) to facilitate generalization, exploration should be task agnostic; 2) to facilitate scalability, exploration policies should collect large quantities of data without costly centralized retraining. Combining these two properties, we introduce the reward-free deployment efficiency setting, a new paradigm for RL research.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are ubiquitous in computer vision and natural language processing, but suffer from high inference cost. This problem can be addressed by quantization, which consists in converting floating point operations into a lower bit-width format. With the growing concerns on privacy rights, we focus our efforts on data-free methods. However, such techniques suffer from their lack of adaptability to the target devices, as a hardware typically only supports specific bit widths. Thus, to adapt to a variety of devices, a quantization method shall be flexible enough to find good accuracy v.s.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for uncertainty quantification, but its application to time-series data is constrained by the violation of the exchangeability assumption. Current solutions for time-series prediction typically operate in the output space and rely on manually selected weights to address distribution drift, leading to overly conservative predictions. To enable dynamic weight learning in the semantically rich latent space, we introduce a novel approach called Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features (CT-SSF). CT-SSF utilizes the inductive bias in deep representation learning to dynamically adjust weights, prioritizing semantic features relevant to the current prediction. Theoretically, we show that CT-SSF surpasses previous methods defined in the output space. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate that CT-SSF significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) conformal prediction techniques in terms of prediction efficiency while maintaining a valid coverage guarantee.

Recently powerful Large Language Models (LLMs) have become easily accessible to hundreds of millions of users world-wide. However, their strong capabilities and vast world knowledge do not come without associated privacy risks. In this work, we focus on the emerging privacy threat LLMs pose - the ability to accurately infer personal information from online texts. Despite the growing importance of LLM-based author profiling, research in this area has been hampered by a lack of suitable public datasets, largely due to ethical and privacy concerns associated with real personal data. We take two steps to address this problem: (i) we construct a simulation framework for the popular social media platform Reddit using LLM agents seeded with synthetic personal profiles; (ii) using this framework, we generate SynthPAI, a diverse synthetic dataset of over 7800 comments manually labeled for personal attributes. We validate our dataset with a human study showing that humans barely outperform random guessing on the task of distinguishing our synthetic comments from real ones. Further, we verify that our dataset enables meaningful personal attribute inference research by showing across 18 state-of-theart LLMs that our synthetic comments allow us to draw the same conclusions as real-world data. Combined, our experimental results, dataset and pipeline form a strong basis for future privacy-preserving research geared towards understanding and mitigating inference-based privacy threats that LLMs pose.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation requires the model to effectively propagate the label information from limited annotated images to unlabeled ones. A challenge for such a per-pixel prediction task is the large intra-class variation, i.e., regions belonging to the same class may exhibit a very different appearance even in the same picture. This diversity will make the label propagation hard from pixels to pixels. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach to regularize the distribution of within-class features to ease label propagation difficulty. Specifically, our approach encourages the consistency between the prediction from a linear predictor and the output from a prototype-based predictor, which implicitly encourages features from the same pseudo-class to be close to at least one within-class prototype while staying far from the other between-class prototypes.