One of the primary aspects of sustainable development involves accurate understanding and modeling of environmental phenomena. Many of these phenomena exhibit variations in both space and time and it is imperative to develop a deeper understanding of techniques that can model space-time dynamics accurately. In this paper we propose NOSTILL-GP - NOn-stationary Space TIme variable Latent Length scale GP, a generic non-stationary, spatio-temporal Gaussian Process (GP) model. We present several strategies, for efficient training of our model, necessary for real-world applicability. Extensive empirical validation is performed using three real-world environmental monitoring datasets, with diverse dynamics across space and time. Results from the experiments clearly demonstrate general applicability and effectiveness of our approach for applications in environmental monitoring.

Many real-world decision-theoretic planning problemsare naturally modeled using both continuous state andaction (CSA) spaces, yet little work has provided ex-act solutions for the case of continuous actions. Inthis work, we propose a symbolic dynamic program-ming (SDP) solution to obtain the optimal closed-formvalue function and policy for CSA-MDPs with mul-tivariate continuous state and actions, discrete noise,piecewise linear dynamics, and piecewise linear (or re-stricted piecewise quadratic) reward. Our key contribu-tion over previous SDP work is to show how the contin-uous action maximization step in the dynamic program-ming backup can be evaluated optimally and symboli-cally — a task which amounts to symbolic constrainedoptimization subject to unknown state parameters; wefurther integrate this technique to work with an efficientand compact data structure for SDP — the extendedalgebraic decision diagram (XADD). We demonstrateempirical results on a didactic nonlinear planning exam-ple and two domains from operations research to showthe first automated exact solution to these problems.

A key problem in climate science is how to combine the predictions of the multi-model ensemble of global climate models. Recent work in machine learning (Monteleoni et al. 2011) showed the promise of an algorithm for online learning with experts for this task.We extend the Tracking Climate Models (TCM) approach to (1) take into account climate model predictions at higher spatial resolutions and (2) to model geospatial neighborhood influence between regions. Our algorithm enables neighborhood influence by modifying the transition dynamics of the Hidden Markov Model used by TCM, allowing the performance of spatial neighbors to influence the temporal switching probabilities for the best expert (climate model) at a given location. In experiments on historical data at a variety of spatial resolutions, our algorithm demonstrates improvements over TCM, when tracking global temperature anomalies.

The ability to use a mirror as an instrument for spatial reasoning enables an agent to make meaningful inferences about the positions of objects in space based on the appearance of their reflections in mirrors.  The model presented in this paper enables a robot to infer the perspective from which objects reflected in a mirror appear to be observed, allowing the robot to use this perspective as a virtual camera.  Prior work by our group presented an architecture through which a robot learns the spatial relationship between its body and visual sense, mimicking an early form of self-knowledge in which infants learn about their bodies and senses through their interactions with each other.  In this work, this self-knowledge is utilized in order to determine the mirror's perspective.  Witnessing the position of its end-effector in a mirror in several distinct poses, the robot determines a perspective that is consistent with these observations.  The system is evaluated by measuring how well the robot's predictions of its end-effector's position in 3D, relative to the robot's egocentric coordinate system, and in 2D, as projected onto it's cameras, match measurements of a marker tracked by its stereo vision system.  Reconstructions of the 3D position end-effector, as computed from the perspective of the mirror, are found to agree with the forward kinematic model within a mean of 31.55mm.  When observed directly by the robot's cameras, reconstructions agree within 5.12mm.  Predictions of the 2D position of the end-effector in the visual field agree with visual measurements within a mean of 18.47 pixels, when observed in the mirror, or 5.66 pixels, when observed directly by the robot's cameras.

Many natural language processing tasks, such as named entity recognition (NER), part of speech (POS) tagging, word segmentation, and etc., can be formulated as sequential data labeling problems. Building a sound labeler requires very large number of correctly labeled training examples, which may not always be possible. On the other hand, crowdsourcing provides an inexpensive yet efficient alternative to collect manual sequential labeling from non-experts. However the quality of crowd labeling cannot be guaranteed, and three kinds of errors are typical: (1) incorrect annotations due to lack of expertise (e.g., labeling gene names from plain text requires corresponding domain knowledge); (2) ignored or omitted annotations due to carelessness or low confidence; (3) noisy annotations due to cheating or vandalism. To correct these mistakes, we present Sembler, a statistical model for ensembling crowd sequential labelings. Sembler considers three types of statistical information: (1) the majority agreement that proves the correctness of an annotation; (2) correct annotation that improves the credibility of the corresponding annotator; (3) correct annotation that enhances the correctness of other annotations which share similar linguistic or contextual features. We evaluate the proposed model on a real Twitter and a synthetical biological data set, and find that Sembler is particularly accurate when more than half of annotators make mistakes.

To ensure quality results from unreliable crowdsourced workers, task designers often construct complex workflows and aggregate worker responses from redundant runs. Frequently, they experiment with several alternative workflows to accomplish the task, and eventually deploy the one that achieves the best performance during early trials. Surprisingly, this seemingly natural design paradigm does not achieve the full potential of crowdsourcing. In particular, using a single workflow (even the best) to accomplish a task is suboptimal. We show that alternative workflows can compose synergistically to yield much higher quality output. We formalize the insight with a novel probabilistic graphical model. Based on this model, we design and implement AGENTHUNT, a POMDP-based controller that dynamically switches between these workflows to achieve higher returns on investment. Additionally, we design offline and online methods for learning model parameters. Live experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk demonstrate the superiority of AGENTHUNT for the task of generating NLP training data, yielding up to 50% error reduction and greater net utility compared to previous methods.

Deciding what mix of engine and battery power to use is critical to hybrid vehicles' fuel efficiency. Current solutions consider several factors such as the charge of the battery and how efficient the engine operates at a given speed. Previous research has shown that by taking into account the future power requirements of the vehicle, a more efficient balance of engine vs. battery power can be attained. In this paper, we utilize a probabilistic driving route prediction system, trained using Inverse Reinforcement Learning, to optimize the hybrid control policy. Our approach considers routes that the driver is likely to be taking, computing an optimal mix of engine and battery power. This approach has the potential to increase vehicle power efficiency while not requiring any hardware modification or change in driver behavior. Our method outperforms a standard hybrid control policy, yielding an average of 1.22% fuel savings.

Sound source localization and separation with permutation resolution are essential for achieving a computational auditory scene analysis system that can extract useful information from a mixture of various sounds. Because existing methods cope separately with these problems despite their mutual dependence, the overall result with these approaches can be degraded by any failure in one of these components. This paper presents a unified Bayesian framework to solve these problems simultaneously where localization and separation are regarded as a clustering problem. Experimental results confirm that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of the separation quality with various setups including practical reverberant environments.

The Upper Confidence Bounds (UCB) algorithm is a well-known near-optimal strategy for the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. Its extensions to trees, such as the Upper Confidence Tree (UCT) algorithm, have resulted in good solutions to the problem of Go. This paper introduces DUCT, a distributed algorithm inspired by UCT, for solving Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOP). Bounds on the solution quality are provided, and experiments show that, compared to existing DCOP approaches, DUCT is able to solve very large problems much more efficiently, or to find significantly higher quality solutions.

We introduce the problem of scheduling land purchases to conserve an endangered species in a way that achieves maximum population spread but delays purchases as long as possible, so that conservation planners retain maximum flexibility and use available budgets in the most efficient way. We develop the problem formally as a stochastic optimization problem over a network cascade model describing the population spread, and present a solution approach that reduces the stochastic problem to a novel variant of a Steiner tree problem. We give a primal-dual algorithm for the problem that computes both a feasible solution and a bound on the quality of an optimal solution. Our experiments, using actual conservation data and a standard diffusion model, show that the approach produces near optimal results and is much more scalable than more generic off-the-shelf optimizers.