The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam's Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent to Gaussian Processes, and always find Occam's Razor at work. 1 Introduction Occam's Razor is a well known principle of "parsimony of explanations" which is influential inscientific thinking in general and in problems of statistical inference in particular. In this paper we review its consequences for Bayesian statistical models, where its behaviour can be easily demonstrated and quantified.

We propose a method of approximate dynamic programming for Markov decision processes (MDPs) using algebraic decision diagrams (ADDs). We produce near-optimal value functions and policies with much lower time and space requirements than exact dynamic programming. Our method reduces the sizes of the intermediate value functions generated during value iteration by replacing the values at the terminals of the ADD with ranges of values. Our method is demonstrated on a class of large MDPs (with up to 34 billion states), and we compare the results with the optimal value functions.

Variational approximations are becoming a widespread tool for Bayesian learning of graphical models. We provide some theoretical resultsfor the variational updates in a very general family of conjugate-exponential graphical models. We show how the belief propagation and the junction tree algorithms can be used in the inference step of variational Bayesian learning. Applying these results tothe Bayesian analysis of linear-Gaussian state-space models we obtain a learning procedure that exploits the Kalman smoothing propagation,while integrating over all model parameters. We demonstrate how this can be used to infer the hidden state dimensionality ofthe state-space model in a variety of synthetic problems and one real high-dimensional data set. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning have several desirable properties. Bayesian integration does not suffer overfitting (since nothing is fit to the data). Prior knowledge canbe incorporated naturally and all uncertainty is manipulated in a consistent manner. Moreover it is possible to learn model structures and readily compare between model classes. Unfortunately, for most models of interest a full Bayesian analysis is computationally intractable.

We study the problem of combining the outcomes of several different classifiers in a way that provides a coherent inference that satisfies some constraints. In particular, we develop two general approaches for an important subproblem-identifying phrase structure. The first is a Markovian approach that extends standard HMMs to allow the use of a rich observation structureand of general classifiers to model state-observation dependencies. The second is an extension of constraint satisfaction formalisms. Wedevelop efficient combination algorithms under both models and study them experimentally in the context of shallow parsing.

The principle of maximizing mutual information is applied to learning overcomplete and recurrent representations.

Large margin linear classification methods have been successfully applied tomany applications. For a linearly separable problem, it is known that under appropriate assumptions, the expected misclassification error of the computed "optimal hyperplane" approaches zero at a rate proportional tothe inverse training sample size. This rate is usually characterized bythe margin and the maximum norm of the input data. In this paper, we argue that another quantity, namely the robustness of the input datadistribution, also plays an important role in characterizing the convergence behavior of expected misclassification error. Based on this concept of robustness, we show that for a large margin separable linear classification problem, the expected misclassification error may converge exponentially in the number of training sample size. 1 Introduction We consider the binary classification problem: to determine a label y E {-1, 1} associated withan input vector x. A useful method for solving this problem is by using linear discriminant functions .

Prior knowledge about video structure can be used both as a means to improve the peiformance of content analysis and to extract features that allow semantic classification. We introduce statistical models for two important components of this structure, shot duration and activity, and demonstrate the usefulness of these models by introducing a Bayesian formulation for the shot segmentation problem. The new formulations is shown to extend standard thresholding methods in an adaptive and intuitive way, leading to improved segmentation accuracy.

An online recursive algorithm for training support vector machines, one vector at a time, is presented. Adiabatic increments retain the Kuhn Tucker conditions on all previously seen training data, in a number of steps each computed analytically. The incremental procedure is reversible, anddecremental "unlearning" offers an efficient method to exactly evaluate leave-one-out generalization performance.

Bayesian networks are graphical representations of probability distributions. In virtually all of the work on learning these networks, the assumption is that we are presented with a data set consisting of randomly generated instances from the underlying distribution. In many situations, however, we also have the option of active learning, where we have the possibility of guiding the sampling process by querying for certain types of samples. This paper addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of Bayesian networks in an active learning setting. We provide a theoretical framework for this problem, and an algorithm that chooses which active learning queries to generate based on the model learned so far. We present experimental results showing that our active learning algorithm can significantly reduce the need for training data in many situations.

This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. Monte-Carlo importance sampling techniques are used for efficient estimation of sequence likelihoods and sequence likelihood gradients. Once the network dynamics are learned, we apply the SDE models to sequence recognition tasks in a manner similar to the way Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly applied. The potential advantage of SDEs over HMMS is the use of continuous statedynamics. We present encouraging results for a video sequence recognition task in which SDE models provided excellent performance when compared to hidden Markov models. 1 Introduction This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular we use SDE models oflow-power nonlinear RC circuits with a significant thermal noise component. We call them diffusion networks. A diffusion network consists of a set of n nodes coupled via a vector of adaptive impedance parameters ' which are tuned to optimize thenetwork's behavior.