We describe a new content publishing system that selects articles to serve to a user, choosing from an editorially programmed pool that is frequently refreshed. It is now deployed on a major Internet portal, and selects articles to serve to hundreds of millions of user visits per day, significantly increasing the number of user clicks over the original manual approach, in which editors periodically selected articles to display. Some of the challenges we face include a dynamic content pool, short article lifetimes, non-stationary click-through rates, and extremely high traffic volumes. The fundamental problem we must solve is to quickly identify which items are popular(perhaps within different user segments), and to exploit them while they remain current. We must also explore the underlying pool constantly to identify promising alternatives, quickly discarding poor performers. Our approach is based on tracking per article performance in near real time through online models. We describe the characteristics and constraints of our application setting, discuss our design choices, and show the importance and effectiveness of coupling online models with a simple randomization procedure. We discuss the challenges encountered in a production online content-publishing environment and highlight issues that deserve careful attention. Our analysis of this application also suggests a number of future research avenues.

Learning to rank has become an important research topic in machine learning. While most learning-to-rank methods learn the ranking function by minimizing the loss functions, it is the ranking measures (such as NDCG and MAP) that are used to evaluate the performance of the learned ranking function. In this work, we reveal the relationship between ranking measures and loss functions in learning-to-rank methods, such as Ranking SVM, RankBoost, RankNet, and ListMLE. We show that these loss functions are upper bounds of the measure-based ranking errors. As a result, the minimization of these loss functions will lead to the maximization of the ranking measures. The key to obtaining this result is to model ranking as a sequence of classification tasks, and define a so-called essential loss as the weighted sum of the classification errors of individual tasks in the sequence. We have proved that the essential loss is both an upper bound of the measure-based ranking errors, and a lower bound of the loss functions in the aforementioned methods. Our proof technique also suggests a way to modify existing loss functions to make them tighter bounds of the measure-based ranking errors. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that the modifications can lead to better ranking performance, demonstrating the correctness of our analysis.

Most algorithms for solving Markov decision processes rely on a discount factor, which ensures their convergence. It is generally assumed that using an artificially low discount factor will improve the convergence rate, while sacrificing the solution quality.We however demonstrate that using an artificially low discount factor may significantly improve the solution quality, when used in approximate dynamic programming. We propose two explanations of this phenomenon. The first justification followsdirectly from the standard approximation error bounds: using a lower discount factor may decrease the approximation error bounds. However, we also show that these bounds are loose, thus their decrease does not entirely justify the improved solution quality. We thus propose another justification: when the rewards are received only sporadically (as in the case of Tetris), we can derive tighter bounds, which support a significant improvement in the solution quality with a decreased discount factor.

Motivated by recent developments in manifold-valued regression we propose a family of nonparametric kernel-smoothing estimators with metric-space valued output including a robust median type estimator and the classical Frechet mean. Depending on the choice of the output space and the chosen metric the estimator reduces to partially well-known procedures for multi-class classification, multivariate regression in Euclidean space, regression with manifold-valued output and even some cases of structured output learning. In this paper we focus on the case of regression with manifold-valued input and output. We show pointwise and Bayes consistency for all estimators in the family for the case of manifold-valued output and illustrate the robustness properties of the estimator with experiments.

Randomly connected recurrent neural circuits have proven to be very powerful models for online computations when a trained memoryless readout function is appended. Such Reservoir Computing (RC) systems are commonly used in two flavors: with analog or binary (spiking) neurons in the recurrent circuits. Previous work showed a fundamental difference between these two incarnations of the RC idea.

We derive risk bounds for the randomized classifiers in Sample Compressions settings where the classifier-specification utilizes two sources of information viz. the compression set and the message string. By extending the recently proposed Occam’s Hammer principle to the data-dependent settings, we derive point-wise versions of the bounds on the stochastic sample compressed classifiers and also recover the corresponding classical PAC-Bayes bound. We further show how these compare favorably to the existing results.

Almost all successful machine learning algorithms and cognitive models require powerful representations capturing the features that are relevant to a particular problem. We draw on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian statistics to define a rational model of human feature learning that forms a featural representation from raw sensory data without pre-specifying the number of features. By comparing how the human perceptual system and our rational model use distributional and category information to infer feature representations, we seek to identify some of the forces that govern the process by which people separate and combine sensory primitives to form features.

We describe an application of probabilistic modeling and inference technology to the problem of analyzing sensor data in the setting of an intensive care unit (ICU). In particular, we consider the arterial-line blood pressure sensor, which is subject to frequent data artifacts that cause false alarms in the ICU and make the raw data almost useless for automated decision making. The problem is complicated by the fact that the sensor data are averaged over fixed intervals whereas the events causing data artifacts may occur at any time and often have durations significantly shorter than the data collection interval. We show that careful modeling of the sensor, combined with a general technique for detecting sub-interval events and estimating their duration, enables detection of artifacts and accurate estimation of the underlying blood pressure values. Our model's performance identifying artifacts is superior to two other classifiers' and about as good as a physician's.

Synapses exhibit an extraordinary degree of short-term malleability, with release probabilities and effective synaptic strengths changing markedly over multiple timescales. From the perspective of a fixed computational operation in a network, this seems like a most unacceptable degree of added noise. We suggest an alternative theory according to which short term synaptic plasticity plays a normatively-justifiable role. This theory starts from the commonplace observation that the spiking of a neuron is an incomplete, digital, report of the analog quantity that contains all the critical information, namely its membrane potential. We suggest that one key task for a synapse is to solve the inverse problem of estimating the pre-synaptic membrane potential from the spikes it receives and prior expectations, as in a recursive filter. We show that short-term synaptic depression has canonical dynamics which closely resemble those required for optimal estimation, and that it indeed supports high quality estimation. Under this account, the local postsynaptic potential and the level of synaptic resources track the (scaled) mean and variance of the estimated presynaptic membrane potential. We make experimentally testable predictions for how the statistics of subthreshold membrane potential fluctuations and the form of spiking non-linearity should be related to the properties of short-term plasticity in any particular cell type.

We present the Gaussian Process Density Sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a fixed density function that is a transformation of a function drawn from a Gaussian process prior. Our formulation allows us to infer an unknown density from data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, which gives samples from the posterior distribution over density functions and from the predictive distribution on data space. We can also infer the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process. We compare this density modeling technique to several existing techniques on a toy problem and a skull-reconstruction task.