We study learning in a noisy bisection model: specifically, Bayesian algorithms to learn a target value V given access only to noisy realizations of whether V is less than or greater than a threshold theta. At step t = 0, 1, 2, ..., the learner sets threshold theta t and observes a noisy realization of sign(V - theta t). After T steps, the goal is to output an estimate V^ which is within an eta-tolerance of V . This problem has been studied, predominantly in environments with a fixed error probability q < 1/2 for the noisy realization of sign(V - theta t). In practice, it is often the case that q can approach 1/2, especially as theta -> V, and there is little known when this happens. We give a pseudo-Bayesian algorithm which provably converges to V. When the true prior matches our algorithm's Gaussian prior, we show near-optimal expected performance. Our methods extend to the general multiple-threshold setting where the observation noisily indicates which of k >= 2 regions V belongs to.

The personalization of treatment via bio-markers and other risk categories has drawn increasing interest among clinical scientists. Personalized treatment strategies can be learned using data from clinical trials, but such trials are very costly to run. This paper explores the use of active learning techniques to design more efficient trials, addressing issues such as whom to recruit, at what point in the trial, and which treatment to assign, throughout the duration of the trial. We propose a minimax bandit model with two different optimization criteria, and discuss the computational challenges and issues pertaining to this approach. We evaluate our active learning policies using both simulated data, and data modeled after a clinical trial for treating depressed individuals, and contrast our methods with other plausible active learning policies.

We show that the Bregman divergence provides a rich framework to estimate unnormalized statistical models for continuous or discrete random variables, that is, models which do not integrate or sum to one, respectively. We prove that recent estimation methods such as noise-contrastive estimation, ratio matching, and score matching belong to the proposed framework, and explain their interconnection based on supervised learning. Further, we discuss the role of boosting in unsupervised learning.

Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also show how the Gaussian process prior used in LFMs can be equivalently formulated as a linear statespace model driven by a white noise process and how inference on the resulting model can be efficiently implemented using Kalman filter and smoother. Then we shall show how the recently proposed switching LFM can be reformulated using the state variable approach, and how we can construct a probabilistic model for the switches by formulating a similar switching LFM as a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS). We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology in simulated scenarios and apply it to inferring the switching points in GPS data collected from car movement data in urban environment.

Due to myriads of classes, designing accurate and efficient classifiers becomes very challenging for multi-class classification. Recent research has shown that class structure learning can greatly facilitate multi-class learning. In this paper, we propose a novel method to learn the class structure for multi-class classification problems. The class structure is assumed to be a binary hierarchical tree. To learn such a tree, we propose a maximum separating margin method to determine the child nodes of any internal node. The proposed method ensures that two classgroups represented by any two sibling nodes are most separable. In the experiments, we evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method over other multi-class classification methods on real world large-scale problems. The results show that the proposed method outperforms benchmark methods in terms of accuracy for most datasets and performs comparably with other class structure learning methods in terms of efficiency for all datasets.

We face network data from various sources, such as protein interactions and online social networks. A critical problem is to model network interactions and identify latent groups of network nodes. This problem is challenging due to many reasons. For example, the network nodes are interdependent instead of independent of each other, and the data are known to be very noisy (e.g., missing edges). To address these challenges, we propose a new relational model for network data, Sparse Matrix-variate Gaussian process Blockmodel (SMGB). Our model generalizes popular bilinear generative models and captures nonlinear network interactions using a matrix-variate Gaussian process with latent membership variables. We also assign sparse prior distributions on the latent membership variables to learn sparse group assignments for individual network nodes. To estimate the latent variables efficiently from data, we develop an efficient variational expectation maximization method. We compared our approaches with several state-of-the-art network models on both synthetic and real-world network datasets. Experimental results demonstrate SMGBs outperform the alternative approaches in terms of discovering latent classes or predicting unknown interactions.

Reinforcement learning addresses the dilemma between exploration to find profitable actions and exploitation to act according to the best observations already made. Bandit problems are one such class of problems in stateless environments that represent this explore/exploit situation. We propose a learning algorithm for bandit problems based on fractional expectation of rewards acquired. The algorithm is theoretically shown to converge on an eta-optimal arm and achieve O(n) sample complexity. Experimental results show the algorithm incurs substantially lower regrets than parameter-optimized eta-greedy and SoftMax approaches and other low sample complexity state-of-the-art techniques.

Fisher score is one of the most widely used supervised feature selection methods. However, it selects each feature independently according to their scores under the Fisher criterion, which leads to a suboptimal subset of features. In this paper, we present a generalized Fisher score to jointly select features. It aims at finding an subset of features, which maximize the lower bound of traditional Fisher score. The resulting feature selection problem is a mixed integer programming, which can be reformulated as a quadratically constrained linear programming (QCLP). It is solved by cutting plane algorithm, in each iteration of which a multiple kernel learning problem is solved alternatively by multivariate ridge regression and projected gradient descent. Experiments on benchmark data sets indicate that the proposed method outperforms Fisher score as well as many other state-of-the-art feature selection methods.

We describe a new technique for computing lower-bounds on the minimum energy configuration of a planar Markov Random Field (MRF). Our method successively adds large numbers of constraints and enforces consistency over binary projections of the original problem state space. These constraints are represented in terms of subproblems in a dual-decomposition framework that is optimized using subgradient techniques. The complete set of constraints we consider enforces cycle consistency over the original graph. In practice we find that the method converges quickly on most problems with the addition of a few subproblems and outperforms existing methods for some interesting classes of hard potentials.

Given a set of experiments in which varying subsets of observed variables are subject to intervention, we consider the problem of identifiability of causal models exhibiting latent confounding. While identifiability is trivial when each experiment intervenes on a large number of variables, the situation is more complicated when only one or a few variables are subject to intervention per experiment. For linear causal models with latent variables Hyttinen et al. (2010) gave precise conditions for when such data are sufficient to identify the full model. While their result cannot be extended to discrete-valued variables with arbitrary cause-effect relationships, we show that a similar result can be obtained for the class of causal models whose conditional probability distributions are restricted to a `noisy-OR' parameterization. We further show that identification is preserved under an extension of the model that allows for negative influences, and present learning algorithms that we test for accuracy, scalability and robustness.