Suppose there exists a function y* fo(x) from which we observe the measurements corrupted with noise ((Xl,YI)," .

Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) areMaximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches,namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error withrespect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently,though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.

The speech waveform can be modelled as a piecewise-stationary linear stochastic state space system, and its parameters can be estimated using an expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm. One problem is the initialisation ofthe EM algorithm. Standard initialisation schemes can lead to poor formant trajectories. But these trajectories however are important forvowel intelligibility. The aim of this paper is to investigate the suitability of subspace identification methods to initialise EM. The paper compares the subspace state space system identification (4SID) method with the EM algorithm. The 4SID and EM methods are similar in that they both estimate a state sequence (but using Kalman filters andKalman smoothers respectively), and then estimate parameters (but using least-squares and maximum likelihood respectively).

We provide preliminary evidence that eXlstmg algorithms for inferring small-scale gene regulation networks from gene expression data can be adapted to large-scale gene expression data coming from hybridization microarrays. The essential steps are (1) clustering many genes by their expression time-course data into a minimal set of clusters of co-expressed genes, (2) theoretically modeling the various conditions under which the time-courses are measured using a continious-time analog recurrent neural network for the cluster mean time-courses, (3) fitting such a regulatory model to the cluster mean time courses by simulated annealing with weight decay, and (4) analysing several such fits for commonalities in the circuit parameter sets including the connection matrices. This procedure can be used to assess the adequacy of existing and future gene expression time-course data sets for determ ining transcriptional regulatory relationships such as coregulation.

We describe a way to add transformation invariance toa generative density model by approximating the nonlinear transformation manifold by a discrete set of transformations. An EM algorithm for the original model can be extended to the new model by computing expectations over the set of transformations. We show how to add a discrete transformation variable to Gaussian mixture modeling, factor analysis and mixtures of factor analysis. We give results on filtering microscopy images, face and facial pose clustering, and handwritten digit modeling and recognition.

Although one can derive the Gaussian noise assumption based on a maximum entropy approach, the main reason for this assumption is practicability: underthe Gaussian noise assumption the maximum likelihood parameter estimate can simply be found by minimization of the squared error. Despite its common use it is far from clear that the Gaussian noise assumption is a good choice for many practical problems. Areasonable approach therefore would be a noise distribution which contains the Gaussian as a special case but which has a tunable parameter that allows for more flexible distributions.

We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of stochastic controllers for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Following several other authors, our approach is based on searching in parameterized families of policies (for example, via gradient descent) to optimize solution quality. However,rather than trying to estimate the values and derivatives of a policy directly, we do so indirectly using estimates for the probability densitiesthat the policy induces on states at the different points in time. This enables our algorithms to exploit the many techniques for efficient and robust approximate density propagation in stochastic systems. Weshow how our techniques can be applied both to deterministic propagation schemes (where the MDP's dynamics are given explicitly in compact form,) and to stochastic propagation schemes (where we have access only to a generative model, or simulator, of the MDP).

We discuss an information theoretic approach for categorizing and modeling dynamicprocesses. The approach can learn a compact and informative statistic which summarizes past states to predict future observations. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the prediction is characterized nonparametrically bya joint density over the learned statistic and present observation. We discuss the application of the technique to both noise driven dynamical systems and random processes sampled from a density which is conditioned on the past. In the first case we show results in which both the dynamics of random walk and the statistics of the driving noise are captured. In the second case we present results in which a summarizing statistic is learned on noisy random telegraph waves with differing dependencies onpast states. In both cases the algorithm yields a principled approach for discriminating processes with differing dynamics and/or dependencies. Themethod is grounded in ideas from information theory and nonparametric statistics.

This paper argues that two apparently distinct modes of generalizing concepts -abstracting rules and computing similarity to exemplars - should both be seen as special cases of a more general Bayesian learning framework. Bayesexplains the specific workings of these two modes - which rules are abstracted, how similarity is measured - as well as why generalization shouldappear rule-or similarity-based in different situations. This analysis also suggests why the rules/similarity distinction, even if not computationally fundamental, may still be useful at the algorithmic level as part of a principled approximation to fully Bayesian learning.

This is one of the theoretical results most frequently cited to justify the use of sigmoidal neural networks in applications. By this statement one refers to the fact that sigmoidal neural networks have been shown to be able to approximate any continuous function arbitrarily well. Numerous results in the literature have established variants of this universal approximation property by considering distinct function classes to be approximated by network architectures using different types of neural activation functions with respect to various approximation criteria, see for instance [1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 12, 14, 15].