Published experiments on spidering the Web suggest that, given training data in the form of a (relatively small) subgraph of the Web containing a subset of a selected class of target pages, it is possible to conduct a directed search and find additional target pages significantly faster (with fewer page retrievals) than by performing a blind or uninformed random or systematic search, e.g., breadth-first search. If true, this claim motivates a number of practical applications. Unfortunately, these experiments were carried out in specialized domains or under conditions that are difficult to replicate. We present and apply an experimental framework designed to reexamine and resolve the basic claims of the earlier work, so that the supporting experiments can be replicated and built upon. We provide high-performance tools for building experimental spiders, make use of the ground truth and static nature of the WT10g TREC Web corpus, and rely on simple well understand machine learning techniques to conduct our experiments. In this paper, we describe the basic framework, motivate the experimental design, and report on our findings supporting and qualifying the conclusions of the earlier research.

There has been great interest in identifying tractable subclasses of NP complete problems and designing efficient algorithms for these tractable classes. Constraint satisfaction and Bayesian network inference are two examples of such problems that are of great importance in AI and algorithms. In this paper we study, under the frameworks of random constraint satisfaction problems and random Bayesian networks, a typical tractable subclass characterized by the treewidth of the problems. We show that the property of having a bounded treewidth for CSPs and Bayesian network inference problem has a phase transition that occurs while the underlying structures of problems are still sparse. This implies that algorithms making use of treewidth based structural knowledge only work efficiently in a limited range of random instance.

We analyze a new property of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), called layerwidth, arising from a class of DAGs proposed by Eiter and Lukasiewicz. This class of DAGs permits certain problems of structural model-based causality and explanation to be tractably solved. In this paper, we first address an open question raised by Eiter and Lukasiewicz - the computational complexity of deciding whether a given graph has a bounded layerwidth. After proving that this problem is NP-complete, we proceed by proving numerous important properties of layerwidth that are helpful in efficiently computing the optimal layerwidth. Finally, we compare this new DAG property to two other important DAG properties: treewidth and bandwidth.

For a given problem, the optimal Markov policy can be considerred as a conditional or contingent plan containing a (potentially large) number of branches. Unfortunately, there are applications where it is desirable to strictly limit the number of decision points and branches in a plan. For example, it may be that plans must later undergo more detailed simulation to verify correctness and safety, or that they must be simple enough to be understood and analyzed by humans. As a result, it may be necessary to limit consideration to plans with only a small number of branches. This raises the question of how one goes about finding optimal plans containing only a limited number of branches. In this paper, we present an any-time algorithm for optimal k-contingency planning (OKP). It is the first optimal algorithm for limited contingency planning that is not an explicit enumeration of possible contingent plans. By modelling the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, it implements the Bellman optimality principle and prunes the solution space. We present experimental results of applying this algorithm to some simple test cases.

Bayesian network classifiers are used in many fields, and one common class of classifiers are naive Bayes classifiers. In this paper, we introduce an approach for reasoning about Bayesian network classifiers in which we explicitly convert them into Ordered Decision Diagrams (ODDs), which are then used to reason about the properties of these classifiers. Specifically, we present an algorithm for converting any naive Bayes classifier into an ODD, and we show theoretically and experimentally that this algorithm can give us an ODD that is tractable in size even given an intractable number of instances. Since ODDs are tractable representations of classifiers, our algorithm allows us to efficiently test the equivalence of two naive Bayes classifiers and characterize discrepancies between them. We also show a number of additional results including a count of distinct classifiers that can be induced by changing some CPT in a naive Bayes classifier, and the range of allowable changes to a CPT which keeps the current classifier unchanged.

This paper studies decision making for Walley's partially consonant belief functions (pcb). In a pcb, the set of foci are partitioned. Within each partition, the foci are nested. The pcb class includes probability functions and possibility functions as extreme cases. Unlike earlier proposals for a decision theory with belief functions, we employ an axiomatic approach. We adopt an axiom system similar in spirit to von Neumann - Morgenstern's linear utility theory for a preference relation on pcb lotteries. We prove a representation theorem for this relation. Utility for a pcb lottery is a combination of linear utility for probabilistic lottery and binary utility for possibilistic lottery.

This paper examines a number of solution methods for decision processes with non-Markovian rewards (NMRDPs). They all exploit a temporal logic specification of the reward function to automatically translate the NMRDP into an equivalent Markov decision process (MDP) amenable to well-known MDP solution methods. They differ however in the representation of the target MDP and the class of MDP solution methods to which they are suited. As a result, they adopt different temporal logics and different translations. Unfortunately, no implementation of these methods nor experimental let alone comparative results have ever been reported. This paper is the first step towards filling this gap. We describe an integrated system for solving NMRDPs which implements these methods and several variants under a common interface; we use it to compare the various approaches and identify the problem features favoring one over the other.

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability sets and probability intervals are NP-hard, even for polytrees. In this paper we focus on such inferences, and propose: 1) a substantial improvement on Tessems A / R algorithm FOR polytrees WITH probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm FOR direction - based local search(IN sets OF probability) that improves ON existing methods; 3) a collection OF branch - AND - bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques.The first two techniques lead TO approximate solutions, WHILE branch - AND - bound procedures can produce either exact OR approximate solutions.We report ON dramatic improvements ON existing techniques FOR inference WITH probability sets AND intervals, IN SOME cases reducing the computational effort BY many orders OF magnitude.

Loopy and generalized belief propagation are popular algorithms for approximate inference in Markov random fields and Bayesian networks. Fixed points of these algorithms correspond to extrema of the Bethe and Kikuchi free energy. However, belief propagation does not always converge, which explains the need for approaches that explicitly minimize the Kikuchi/Bethe free energy, such as CCCP and UPS. Here we describe a class of algorithms that solves this typically nonconvex constrained minimization of the Kikuchi free energy through a sequence of convex constrained minimizations of upper bounds on the Kikuchi free energy. Intuitively one would expect tighter bounds to lead to faster algorithms, which is indeed convincingly demonstrated in our simulations. Several ideas are applied to obtain tight convex bounds that yield dramatic speed-ups over CCCP.

Backtracking search is a powerful algorithmic paradigm that can be used to solve many problems. It is in a certain sense the dual of variable elimination; but on many problems, e.g., SAT, it is vastly superior to variable elimination in practice. Motivated by this we investigate the application of backtracking search to the problem of Bayesian inference (Bayes). We show that natural generalizations of known techniques allow backtracking search to achieve performance guarantees similar to standard algorithms for Bayes, and that there exist problems on which backtracking can in fact do much better. We also demonstrate that these ideas can be applied to implement a Bayesian inference engine whose performance is competitive with standard algorithms. Since backtracking search can very naturally take advantage of context specific structure, the potential exists for performance superior to standard algorithms on many problems.