WA qualitative probabilistic network models the probabilistic relationships between its variables by means of signs. Non-monotonic influences have associated an ambiguous sign. These ambiguous signs typically lead to uninformative results upon inference. A non-monotonic influence can, however, be associated with a, more informative, sign that indicates its effect in the current state of the network. To capture this effect, we introduce the concept of situational sign. Furthermore, if the network converts to a state in which all variables that provoke the non-monotonicity have been observed, a non-monotonic influence reduces to a monotonic influence. We study the persistence and propagation of situational signs upon inference and give a method to establish the sign of a reduced influence.

In this paper we examine the problem of inference in Bayesian Networks with discrete random variables that have very large or even unbounded domains. For example, in a domain where we are trying to identify a person, we may have variables that have as domains, the set of all names, the set of all postal codes, or the set of all credit card numbers. We cannot just have big tables of the conditional probabilities, but need compact representations. We provide an inference algorithm, based on variable elimination, for belief networks containing both large domain and normal discrete random variables. We use intensional (i.e., in terms of procedures) and extensional (in terms of listing the elements) representations of conditional probabilities and of the intermediate factors.

Pearls concept OF a d - connecting path IS one OF the foundations OF the modern theory OF graphical models : the absence OF a d - connecting path IN a DAG indicates that conditional independence will hold IN ANY distribution factorising according TO that graph. IN this paper we show that IN singly - connected Gaussian DAGs it IS possible TO USE the form OF a d - connection TO obtain qualitative information about the strength OF conditional dependence.More precisely, the squared partial correlations BETWEEN two given variables, conditioned ON different subsets may be partially ordered BY examining the relationship BETWEEN the d - connecting path AND the SET OF variables conditioned upon.

A fundamental question in causal inference is whether it is possible to reliably infer manipulation effects from observational data. There are a variety of senses of asymptotic reliability in the statistical literature, among which the most commonly discussed frequentist notions are pointwise consistency and uniform consistency. Uniform consistency is in general preferred to pointwise consistency because the former allows us to control the worst case error bounds with a finite sample size. In the sense of pointwise consistency, several reliable causal inference algorithms have been established under the Markov and Faithfulness assumptions [Pearl 2000, Spirtes et al. 2001]. In the sense of uniform consistency, however, reliable causal inference is impossible under the two assumptions when time order is unknown and/or latent confounders are present [Robins et al. 2000]. In this paper we present two natural generalizations of the Faithfulness assumption in the context of structural equation models, under which we show that the typical algorithms in the literature (in some cases with modifications) are uniformly consistent even when the time order is unknown. We also discuss the situation where latent confounders may be present and the sense in which the Faithfulness assumption is a limiting case of the stronger assumptions.

By elaborating on the notion of linear belief functions (Dempster 1990; Liu 1996), we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear belief functions. We show how to use basic matrices to represent market information and financial knowledge, including complete ignorance, statistical observations, subjective speculations, distributional assumptions, linear relations, and empirical asset pricing models. We then appeal to Dempster's rule of combination to integrate the knowledge for assessing an overall belief of portfolio performance, and updating the belief by incorporating additional information. We use an example of three gold stocks to illustrate the approach.

This paper presents a scalable Bayesian technique for decentralized state estimation from multiple platforms in dynamic environments. As has long been recognized, centralized architectures impose severe scaling limitations for distributed systems due to the enormous communication overheads. We propose a strictly decentralized approach in which only nearby platforms exchange information. They do so through an interactive communication protocol aimed at maximizing information flow. Our approach is evaluated in the context of a distributed surveillance scenario that arises in a robotic system for playing the game of laser tag. Our results, both from simulation and using physical robots, illustrate an unprecedented scaling capability to large teams of vehicles.

We formulate a principle for classification with the knowledge of the marginal distribution over the data points (unlabeled data). The principle is cast in terms of Tikhonov style regularization where the regularization penalty articulates the way in which the marginal density should constrain otherwise unrestricted conditional distributions. Specifically, the regularization penalty penalizes any information introduced between the examples and labels beyond what is provided by the available labeled examples. The work extends Szummer and Jaakkola's information regularization (NIPS 2002) to multiple dimensions, providing a regularizer independent of the covering of the space used in the derivation. We show in addition how the information regularizer can be used as a measure of complexity of the classification task with unlabeled data and prove a relevant sample-complexity bound. We illustrate the regularization principle in practice by restricting the class of conditional distributions to be logistic regression models and constructing the regularization penalty from a finite set of unlabeled examples.

We introduce a new family of matrix norms, the "local max" norms, generalizing existing methods such as the max norm, the trace norm (nuclear norm), and the weighted or smoothed weighted trace norms, which have been extensively used in the literature as regularizers for matrix reconstruction problems. We show that this new family can be used to interpolate between the (weighted or unweighted) trace norm and the more conservative max norm. We test this interpolation on simulated data and on the large-scale Netflix and MovieLens ratings data, and find improved accuracy relative to the existing matrix norms. We also provide theoretical results showing learning guarantees for some of the new norms.

In this paper we study iterative procedures for stationary equilibria in games with large number of players. Most of learning algorithms for games with continuous action spaces are limited to strict contraction best reply maps in which the Banach-Picard iteration converges with geometrical convergence rate. When the best reply map is not a contraction, Ishikawa-based learning is proposed. The algorithm is shown to behave well for Lipschitz continuous and pseudo-contractive maps. However, the convergence rate is still unsatisfactory. Several acceleration techniques are presented. We explain how cognitive users can improve the convergence rate based only on few number of measurements. The methodology provides nice properties in mean field games where the payoff function depends only on own-action and the mean of the mean-field (first moment mean-field games). A learning framework that exploits the structure of such games, called, mean-field learning, is proposed. The proposed mean-field learning framework is suitable not only for games but also for non-convex global optimization problems. Then, we introduce mean-field learning without feedback and examine the convergence to equilibria in beauty contest games, which have interesting applications in financial markets. Finally, we provide a fully distributed mean-field learning and its speedup versions for satisfactory solution in wireless networks. We illustrate the convergence rate improvement with numerical examples.

Markov networks (MNs) are a powerful way to compactly represent a joint probability distribution, but most MN structure learning methods are very slow, due to the high cost of evaluating candidates structures. Dependency networks (DNs) represent a probability distribution as a set of conditional probability distributions. DNs are very fast to learn, but the conditional distributions may be inconsistent with each other and few inference algorithms support DNs. In this paper, we present a closed-form method for converting a DN into an MN, allowing us to enjoy both the efficiency of DN learning and the convenience of the MN representation. When the DN is consistent, this conversion is exact. For inconsistent DNs, we present averaging methods that significantly improve the approximation. In experiments on 12 standard datasets, our methods are orders of magnitude faster than and often more accurate than combining conditional distributions using weight learning.