Due to the nonlinear but highly interpretable representations,decision tree (DT) models have significantly attracted a lot of attention of researchers. However, DT models usually suffer from the curse of dimensionality and achieve degenerated performance when there are many noisy features. To address these issues, this paper first presents a novel data-dependent generalization error bound for the perceptron decision tree(PDT), which provides the theoretical justification to learn a sparse linear hyperplane in each decision node and to prune the tree. Following our analysis, we introduce the notion of sparse perceptron decision node (SPDN) with a budget constraint on the weight coefficients, and propose a sparse perceptron decision tree (SPDT) algorithm to achieve nonlinear prediction performance. To avoid generating an unstable and complicated decision tree and improve the generalization of the SPDT, we present a pruning strategy by learning classifiers to minimize cross-validation errors on each SPDN. Extensive empirical studies verify that our SPDT is more resilient to noisy features and effectively generates a small,yet accurate decision tree. Compared with state-of-the-art DT methods and SVM, our SPDT achieves better generalization performance on ultrahigh dimensional problems with more than 1 million features.

The global financial crisis occurred in 2008 and its contagion to other regions, as well as the long-lasting impact on different markets, show that it is increasingly important to understand the complicated coupling relationships across financial markets. This is indeed very difficult as complex hidden coupling relationships exist between different financial markets in various countries, which are very hard to model. The couplings involve interactions between homogeneous markets from various countries (we call intra-market coupling), interactions between heterogeneous markets (inter-market coupling) and interactions between current and past market behaviors (temporal coupling). Very limited work has been done towards modeling such complex couplings, whereas some existing methods predict market movement by simply aggregating indicators from various markets but ignoring the inbuilt couplings. As a result, these methods are highly sensitive to observations, and may often fail when financial indicators change slightly. In this paper, a coupled deep belief network is designed to accommodate the above three types of couplings across financial markets. With a deep-architecture model to capture the high-level coupled features, the proposed approach can infer market trends. Experimental results on data of stock and currency markets from three countries show that our approach outperforms other baselines, from both technical and business perspectives.

Effective forecasting of future prevalent topics plays animportant role in social network business development.It involves two challenging aspects: predicting whethera topic will become prevalent, and when. This cannotbe directly handled by the existing algorithms in topicmodeling, item recommendation and action forecasting.The classic forecasting framework based on time seriesmodels may be able to predict a hot topic when a seriesof periodical changes to user-addressed frequency in asystematic way. However, the frequency of topics discussedby users often changes irregularly in social networks.In this paper, a generic probabilistic frameworkis proposed for hot topic prediction, and machine learningmethods are explored to predict hot topic patterns.Two effective models, PreWHether and PreWHen, areintroduced to predict whether and when a topic will becomeprevalent. In the PreWHether model, we simulatethe constructed features of previously observed frequencychanges for better prediction. In the PreWHen model,distributions of time intervals associated with the emergenceto prevalence of a topic are modeled. Extensiveexperiments on real datasets demonstrate that ourmethod outperforms the baselines and generates moreeffective predictions.

The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, in cooperation with Stanford University's Department of Computer Science, is pleased to present the 2010 Spring Symposium Series, to be held Monday through Wednesday, March 22–24, 2010 at Stanford University. The titles of the seven symposia are Artificial Intelligence for Development; Cognitive Shape Processing; Educational Robotics and Beyond: Design and Evaluation; Embedded Reasoning: Intelligence in Embedded Systems Intelligent Information Privacy Management; It's All in the Timing: Representing and Reasoning about Time in Interactive Behavior; and Linked Data Meets Artificial Intelligence.

The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, in cooperation with Stanford University’s Department of Computer Science, is pleased to present the 2010 Spring Symposium Series, to be held Monday through Wednesday, March 22–24, 2010 at Stanford University. The titles of the seven symposia are Artificial Intelligence for Development; Cognitive Shape Processing; Educational Robotics and Beyond: Design and Evaluation; Embedded Reasoning: Intelligence in Embedded Systems Intelligent Information Privacy Management; It’s All in the Timing: Representing and Reasoning about Time in Interactive Behavior; and Linked Data Meets Artificial Intelligence.