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Xu, Xingcheng
DeepInnovation AI: A Global Dataset Mapping the AI innovation from Academic Research to Industrial Patents
Gong, Haixing, Zou, Hui, Liang, Xingzhou, Meng, Shiyuan, Cai, Pinlong, Xu, Xingcheng, Qu, Jingjing
In the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence (AI), mapping innovation patterns and understanding effective technology transfer from research to applications are essential for economic growth. However, existing data infrastructures suffer from fragmentation, incomplete coverage, and insufficient evaluative capacity. Here, we present DeepInnovationAI, a comprehensive global dataset containing three structured files. DeepPatentAI.csv: Contains 2,356,204 patent records with 8 field-specific attributes. DeepDiveAI.csv: Encompasses 3,511,929 academic publications with 13 metadata fields. These two datasets leverage large language models, multilingual text analysis and dual-layer BERT classifiers to accurately identify AI-related content, while utilizing hypergraph analysis to create robust innovation metrics. Additionally, DeepCosineAI.csv: By applying semantic vector proximity analysis, this file presents approximately one hundred million calculated paper-patent similarity pairs to enhance understanding of how theoretical advancements translate into commercial technologies. DeepInnovationAI enables researchers, policymakers, and industry leaders to anticipate trends and identify collaboration opportunities. With extensive temporal and geographical scope, it supports detailed analysis of technological development patterns and international competition dynamics, establishing a foundation for modeling AI innovation and technology transfer processes.
Machine Learning for Economic Forecasting: An Application to China's GDP Growth
Yang, Yanqing, Xu, Xingcheng, Ge, Jinfeng, Xu, Yan
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the factors contributing to the performance differences among these models. Our findings indicate that the average forecast errors of machine learning models are generally lower than those of traditional econometric models or expert forecasts, particularly in periods of economic stability. However, during certain inflection points, although machine learning models still outperform traditional econometric models, expert forecasts may exhibit greater accuracy in some instances due to experts' more comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic environment and real-time economic variables. In addition to macroeconomic forecasting, this paper employs interpretable machine learning methods to identify the key attributive variables from different machine learning models, aiming to enhance the understanding and evaluation of their contributions to macroeconomic fluctuations.
Large Language Models at Work in China's Labor Market
Chen, Qin, Ge, Jinfeng, Xie, Huaqing, Xu, Xingcheng, Yang, Yanqing
This paper explores the potential impacts of large language models (LLMs) on the Chinese labor market. We analyze occupational exposure to LLM capabilities by incorporating human expertise and LLM classifications, following Eloundou et al. (2023)'s methodology. We then aggregate occupation exposure to the industry level to obtain industry exposure scores. The results indicate a positive correlation between occupation exposure and wage levels/experience premiums, suggesting higher-paying and experience-intensive jobs may face greater displacement risks from LLM-powered software. The industry exposure scores align with expert assessments and economic intuitions. We also develop an economic growth model incorporating industry exposure to quantify the productivity-employment trade-off from AI adoption. Overall, this study provides an analytical basis for understanding the labor market impacts of increasingly capable AI systems in China. Key innovations include the occupation-level exposure analysis, industry aggregation approach, and economic modeling incorporating AI adoption and labor market effects. The findings will inform policymakers and businesses on strategies for maximizing the benefits of AI while mitigating adverse disruption risks.
It Ain't That Bad: Understanding the Mysterious Performance Drop in OOD Generalization for Generative Transformer Models
Xu, Xingcheng, Pan, Zihao, Zhang, Haipeng, Yang, Yanqing
Generative Transformer-based models have achieved remarkable proficiency on solving diverse problems. However, their generalization ability is not fully understood and not always satisfying. Researchers take basic mathematical tasks like n-digit addition or multiplication as important perspectives for investigating their generalization behaviors. Curiously, it is observed that when training on n-digit operations (e.g., additions) in which both input operands are n-digit in length, models generalize successfully on unseen n-digit inputs (in-distribution (ID) generalization), but fail miserably and mysteriously on longer, unseen cases (out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization). Studies try to bridge this gap with workarounds such as modifying position embedding, fine-tuning, and priming with more extensive or instructive data. However, without addressing the essential mechanism, there is hardly any guarantee regarding the robustness of these solutions. We bring this unexplained performance drop into attention and ask whether it is purely from random errors. Here we turn to the mechanistic line of research which has notable successes in model interpretability. We discover that the strong ID generalization stems from structured representations, while behind the unsatisfying OOD performance, the models still exhibit clear learned algebraic structures. Specifically, these models map unseen OOD inputs to outputs with equivalence relations in the ID domain. These highlight the potential of the models to carry useful information for improved generalization.
Deep Generative Modeling with Backward Stochastic Differential Equations
Xu, Xingcheng
This paper proposes a novel deep generative model, called BSDE-Gen, which combines the flexibility of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) with the power of deep neural networks for generating high-dimensional complex target data, particularly in the field of image generation. The incorporation of stochasticity and uncertainty in the generative modeling process makes BSDE-Gen an effective and natural approach for generating high-dimensional data. The paper provides a theoretical framework for BSDE-Gen, describes its model architecture, presents the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) loss function used for training, and reports experimental results.
GAMMT: Generative Ambiguity Modeling Using Multiple Transformers
Xu, Xingcheng
We introduce a novel model called GAMMT (Generative Ambiguity Models using Multiple Transformers) for sequential data that is based on sets of probabilities. Unlike conventional models, our approach acknowledges that the data generation process of a sequence is not deterministic, but rather ambiguous and influenced by a set of probabilities. To capture this ambiguity, GAMMT employs multiple parallel transformers that are linked by a selection mechanism, allowing for the approximation of ambiguous probabilities. The generative nature of our approach also enables multiple representations of input tokens and sequences. While our models have not yet undergone experimental validation, we believe that our model has great potential to achieve high quality and diversity in modeling sequences with uncertain data generation processes.