This paper introduces a novel approach to uncertainty quantification for radiance fields by leveraging higher-order moments of the rendering equation. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for downstream tasks including view planning and scene understanding, where safety and robustness are paramount. However, the high dimensionality and complexity of radiance fields pose significant challenges for uncertainty quantification, limiting the use of these uncertainty quantification methods in high-speed decision-making. We demonstrate that the probabilistic nature of the rendering process enables efficient and differentiable computation of higher-order moments for radiance field outputs, including color, depth, and semantic predictions. Our method outperforms existing radiance field uncertainty estimation techniques while offering a more direct, computationally efficient, and differentiable formulation without the need for post-processing. Beyond uncertainty quantification, we also illustrate the utility of our approach in downstream applications such as next-best-view (NBV) selection and active ray sampling for neural radiance field training. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world scenes confirm the efficacy of our approach, which achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining simplicity.

In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for quantifying uncertainty and information gained within 3D Gaussian Splatting (3D-GS) through P-Optimality. While 3D-GS has proven to be a useful world model with high-quality rasterizations, it does not natively quantify uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty in parameters of 3D-GS is necessary to understand the information gained from acquiring new images as in active perception, or identify redundant images which can be removed from memory due to resource constraints in online 3D-GS SLAM. We propose to quantify uncertainty and information gain in 3D-GS by reformulating the problem through the lens of optimal experimental design, which is a classical solution to measuring information gain. By restructuring information quantification of 3D-GS through optimal experimental design, we arrive at multiple solutions, of which T-Optimality and D-Optimality perform the best quantitatively and qualitatively as measured on two popular datasets. Additionally, we propose a block diagonal approximation of the 3D-GS uncertainty, which provides a measure of correlation for computing more accurate information gain, at the expense of a greater computation cost.

In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for probabilistically updating and rasterizing semantic maps within 3D Gaussian Splatting (3D-GS). Although previous methods have introduced algorithms which learn to rasterize features in 3D-GS for enhanced scene understanding, 3D-GS can fail without warning which presents a challenge for safety-critical robotic applications. To address this gap, we propose a method which advances the literature of continuous semantic mapping from voxels to ellipsoids, combining the precise structure of 3D-GS with the ability to quantify uncertainty of probabilistic robotic maps. Given a set of images, our algorithm performs a probabilistic semantic update directly on the 3D ellipsoids to obtain an expectation and variance through the use of conjugate priors. We also propose a probabilistic rasterization which returns per-pixel segmentation predictions with quantifiable uncertainty. We compare our method with similar probabilistic voxel-based methods to verify our extension to 3D ellipsoids, and perform ablation studies on uncertainty quantification and temporal smoothing.

This paper introduces a novel probabilistic mapping algorithm, Latent BKI, which enables open-vocabulary mapping with quantifiable uncertainty. Traditionally, semantic mapping algorithms focus on a fixed set of semantic categories which limits their applicability for complex robotic tasks. Vision-Language (VL) models have recently emerged as a technique to jointly model language and visual features in a latent space, enabling semantic recognition beyond a predefined, fixed set of semantic classes. Latent BKI recurrently incorporates neural embeddings from VL models into a voxel map with quantifiable uncertainty, leveraging the spatial correlations of nearby observations through Bayesian Kernel Inference (BKI). Latent BKI is evaluated against similar explicit semantic mapping and VL mapping frameworks on the popular MatterPort-3D and Semantic KITTI data sets, demonstrating that Latent BKI maintains the probabilistic benefits of continuous mapping with the additional benefit of open-dictionary queries. Real-world experiments demonstrate applicability to challenging indoor environments.

In this paper, we develop a modular neural network for real-time semantic mapping in uncertain environments, which explicitly updates per-voxel probabilistic distributions within a neural network layer. Our approach combines the reliability of classical probabilistic algorithms with the performance and efficiency of modern neural networks. Although robotic perception is often divided between modern differentiable methods and classical explicit methods, a union of both is necessary for real-time and trustworthy performance. We introduce a novel Convolutional Bayesian Kernel Inference (ConvBKI) layer which incorporates semantic segmentation predictions online into a 3D map through a depthwise convolution layer by leveraging conjugate priors. We compare ConvBKI against state-of-the-art deep learning approaches and probabilistic algorithms for mapping to evaluate reliability and performance. We also create a Robot Operating System (ROS) package of ConvBKI and test it on real-world perceptually challenging off-road driving data.

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes that produce varying amounts of information about the underlying uncertain parameters of the system. To maximize information gained with respect to these uncertain parameters we present a Bayesian approach to data collection for system identification called Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED). The formulation uses parameterized trajectories and cubature to compute maximally informative system trajectories which obtain as much information as possible about unknown system parameters while also ensuring safety under mild assumptions. The proposed method is applicable to non-linear and non-Gaussian systems and is applied to a high-fidelity vehicle model from the literature. It is shown the proposed approach requires orders of magnitude fewer samples compared to state-of-the-art BOED algorithms from the literature while simultaneously providing safety guarantees.

Abstract-- Robotic perception is currently at a cross-roads between modern methods, which operate in an efficient latent space, and classical methods, which are mathematically founded and provide interpretable, trustworthy results. In this paper, we introduce a Convolutional Bayesian Kernel Inference (ConvBKI) layer which learns to perform explicit Bayesian inference within a depthwise separable convolution layer to maximize efficency while maintaining reliability simultaneously. We apply our layer to the task of real-time 3D semantic mapping, where we learn semantic-geometric probability distributions for Li-DAR sensor information and incorporate semantic predictions into a global map. The constructed semantic volumes are convolved with a depthwise filter to perform a real-time Bayesian update on a semantic 3D map. Robust world models are essential for safe and reliable the structured geometric representations of earlier, probabilistic autonomous robots.