Uncertainty estimation and ensembling methods go hand-in-hand. Uncertainty estimation is one of the main benchmarks for assessment of ensembling performance. At the same time, deep learning ensembles have provided state-of-the-art results in uncertainty estimation. In this work, we focus on in-domain uncertainty for image classification. We explore the standards for its quantification and point out pitfalls of existing metrics. Avoiding these pitfalls, we perform a broad study of different ensembling techniques. To provide more insight in this study, we introduce the deep ensemble equivalent score (DEE) and show that many sophisticated ensembling techniques are equivalent to an ensemble of only few independently trained networks in terms of test performance.

Bayesian inference was once a gold standard for learning with neural networks, providing accurate full predictive distributions and well calibrated uncertainty. However, scaling Bayesian inference techniques to deep neural networks is challenging due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space. In this paper, we construct low-dimensional subspaces of parameter space, such as the first principal components of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) trajectory, which contain diverse sets of high performing models. In these subspaces, we are able to apply elliptical slice sampling and variational inference, which struggle in the full parameter space. We show that Bayesian model averaging over the induced posterior in these subspaces produces accurate predictions and well calibrated predictive uncertainty for both regression and image classification.

Recent works propose using the discriminator of a GAN to filter out unrealistic samples of the generator. We generalize these ideas by introducing the implicit Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. For any implicit probabilistic model and a target distribution represented by a set of samples, implicit Metropolis-Hastings operates by learning a discriminator to estimate the density-ratio and then generating a chain of samples. Since the approximation of density ratio introduces an error on every step of the chain, it is crucial to analyze the stationary distribution of such chain. For that purpose, we present a theoretical result stating that the discriminator loss upper bounds the total variation distance between the target distribution and the stationary distribution. Finally, we validate the proposed algorithm both for independent and Markov proposals on CIFAR-10 and CelebA datasets.

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior distribution. In turn, the expressivity of the variational family is largely limited by the requirement of having a tractable density function. To overcome this roadblock, we introduce a new family of variational upper bounds on a marginal log density in the case of hierarchical models (also known as latent variable models). We then give an upper bound on the Kullback-Leibler divergence and derive a family of increasingly tighter variational lower bounds on the otherwise intractable standard evidence lower bound for hierarchical variational distributions, enabling the use of more expressive approximate posteriors. We show that previously known methods, such as Hierarchical Variational Models, Semi-Implicit Variational Inference and Doubly Semi-Implicit Variational Inference can be seen as special cases of the proposed approach, and empirically demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method in a set of experiments.

This paper proposes a semi-conditional normalizing flow model for semi-supervised learning. The model uses both labelled and unlabeled data to learn an explicit model of joint distribution over objects and labels. Semi-conditional architecture of the model allows us to efficiently compute a value and gradients of the marginal likelihood for unlabeled objects. The conditional part of the model is based on a proposed conditional coupling layer. We demonstrate performance of the model for semi-supervised classification problem on different datasets. The model outperforms the baseline approach based on variational auto-encoders on MNIST dataset.

We propose a novel multi-texture synthesis model based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) with a user-controllable mechanism. The user control ability allows to explicitly specify the texture which should be generated by the model. This property follows from using an encoder part which learns a latent representation for each texture from the dataset. To ensure a dataset coverage, we use an adversarial loss function that penalizes for incorrect reproductions of a given texture. In experiments, we show that our model can learn descriptive texture manifolds for large datasets and from raw data such as a collection of high-resolution photos. Moreover, we apply our method to produce 3D textures and show that it outperforms existing baselines.

We extend the existing framework of semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) and introduce doubly semi-implicit variational inference (DSIVI), a way to perform variational inference and learning when both the approximate posterior and the prior distribution are semi-implicit. In other words, DSIVI performs inference in models where the prior and the posterior can be expressed as an intractable infinite mixture of some analytic density with a highly flexible implicit mixing distribution. We provide a sandwich bound on the evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective that can be made arbitrarily tight. Unlike discriminator-based and kernel-based approaches to implicit variational inference, DSIVI optimizes a proper lower bound on ELBO that is asymptotically exact. We evaluate DSIVI on a set of problems that benefit from implicit priors. In particular, we show that DSIVI gives rise to a simple modification of VampPrior, the current state-of-the-art prior for variational autoencoders, which improves its performance.

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of computer vision tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, and temperature scaling.

Bayesian methods have been successfully applied to sparsify weights of neural networks and to remove structure units from the networks, e. g. neurons. We apply and further develop this approach for gated recurrent architectures. Specifically, in addition to sparsification of individual weights and neurons, we propose to sparsify preactivations of gates and information flow in LSTM. It makes some gates and information flow components constant, speeds up forward pass and improves compression. Moreover, the resulting structure of gate sparsity is interpretable and depends on the task. Code is available on github: https://github.com/tipt0p/SparseBayesianRNN

Bayesian inference is known to provide a general framework for incorporating prior knowledge or specific properties into machine learning models via carefully choosing a prior distribution. In this work, we propose a new type of prior distributions for convolutional neural networks, deep weight prior, that in contrast to previously published techniques, favors empirically estimated structure of convolutional filters e.g., spatial correlations of weights. We define deep weight prior as an implicit distribution and propose a method for variational inference with such type of implicit priors. In experiments, we show that deep weight priors can improve the performance of Bayesian neural networks on several problems when training data is limited. Also, we found that initialization of weights of conventional networks with samples from deep weight prior leads to faster training.