Language models can be prompted to reason through problems in a manner that significantly improves performance. However, \textit{why} such prompting improves performance is unclear. Recent work showed that using logically \textit{invalid} Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting improves performance almost as much as logically \textit{valid} CoT prompting, and that editing CoT prompts to replace problem-specific information with abstract information or out-of-distribution information typically doesn't harm performance. Critics have responded that these findings are based on too few and too easily solved tasks to draw meaningful conclusions. To resolve this dispute, we test whether logically invalid CoT prompts offer the same level of performance gains as logically valid prompts on the hardest tasks in the BIG-Bench benchmark, termed BIG-Bench Hard (BBH). We find that the logically \textit{invalid} reasoning prompts do indeed achieve similar performance gains on BBH tasks as logically valid reasoning prompts. We also discover that some CoT prompts used by previous works contain logical errors. This suggests that covariates beyond logically valid reasoning are responsible for performance improvements.

We present FACADE, a novel probabilistic and geometric framework designed for unsupervised mechanistic anomaly detection in deep neural networks. Its primary goal is advancing the understanding and mitigation of adversarial attacks. FACADE aims to generate probabilistic distributions over circuits, which provide critical insights to their contribution to changes in the manifold properties of pseudo-classes, or high-dimensional modes in activation space, yielding a powerful tool for uncovering and combating adversarial attacks. Our approach seeks to improve model robustness, enhance scalable model oversight, and demonstrates promising applications in real-world deployment settings.

Recent work claims that large language models display emergent abilities, abilities not present in smaller-scale models that are present in larger-scale models. What makes emergent abilities intriguing is two-fold: their sharpness, transitioning seemingly instantaneously from not present to present, and their unpredictability, appearing at seemingly unforeseeable model scales. Here, we present an alternative explanation for emergent abilities: that for a particular task and model family, when analyzing fixed model outputs, emergent abilities appear due to the researcher's choice of metric rather than due to fundamental changes in model behavior with scale. Specifically, nonlinear or discontinuous metrics produce apparent emergent abilities, whereas linear or continuous metrics produce smooth, continuous predictable changes in model performance. We present our alternative explanation in a simple mathematical model, then test it in three complementary ways: we (1) make, test and confirm three predictions on the effect of metric choice using the InstructGPT/GPT-3 family on tasks with claimed emergent abilities; (2) make, test and confirm two predictions about metric choices in a meta-analysis of emergent abilities on BIG-Bench; and (3) show to choose metrics to produce never-before-seen seemingly emergent abilities in multiple vision tasks across diverse deep networks. Via all three analyses, we provide evidence that alleged emergent abilities evaporate with different metrics or with better statistics, and may not be a fundamental property of scaling AI models.

Double descent is a surprising phenomenon in machine learning, in which as the number of model parameters grows relative to the number of data, test error drops as models grow ever larger into the highly overparameterized (data undersampled) regime. This drop in test error flies against classical learning theory on overfitting and has arguably underpinned the success of large models in machine learning. This non-monotonic behavior of test loss depends on the number of data, the dimensionality of the data and the number of model parameters. Here, we briefly describe double descent, then provide an explanation of why double descent occurs in an informal and approachable manner, requiring only familiarity with linear algebra and introductory probability. We provide visual intuition using polynomial regression, then mathematically analyze double descent with ordinary linear regression and identify three interpretable factors that, when simultaneously all present, together create double descent. We demonstrate that double descent occurs on real data when using ordinary linear regression, then demonstrate that double descent does not occur when any of the three factors are ablated. We use this understanding to shed light on recent observations in nonlinear models concerning superposition and double descent. Code is publicly available.

Learning from a continuous stream of non-stationary data in an unsupervised manner is arguably one of the most common and most challenging settings facing intelligent agents. Here, we attack learning under all three conditions (unsupervised, streaming, non-stationary) in the context of clustering, also known as mixture modeling. We introduce a novel clustering algorithm that endows mixture models with the ability to create new clusters online, as demanded by the data, in a probabilistic, time-varying, and principled manner. To achieve this, we first define a novel stochastic process called the Dynamical Chinese Restaurant Process (Dynamical CRP), which is a non-exchangeable distribution over partitions of a set; next, we show that the Dynamical CRP provides a non-stationary prior over cluster assignments and yields an efficient streaming variational inference algorithm. We conclude with experiments showing that the Dynamical CRP can be applied on diverse synthetic and real data with Gaussian and non-Gaussian likelihoods.

Humans sometimes choose actions that they themselves can identify as sub-optimal, or wrong, even in the absence of additional information. How is this possible? We present an algorithmic theory of metacognition based on a well-understood trade-off in reinforcement learning (RL) between value-based RL and policy-based RL. To the cognitive (neuro)science community, our theory answers the outstanding question of why information can be used for error detection but not for action selection. To the machine learning community, our proposed theory creates a novel interaction between the Actor and Critic in Actor-Critic agents and notes a novel connection between RL and Bayesian Optimization. We call our proposed agent the Metacognitive Actor Critic (MAC). We conclude with showing how to create metacognition in machines by implementing a deep MAC and showing that it can detect (some of) its own suboptimal actions without external information or delay.