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Rogers, Timothy J.
Adaptive Sensor Steering Strategy Using Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Data Acquisition in Digital Twins
Ogbodo, Collins O., Rogers, Timothy J., Borgo, Mattia Dal, Wagg, David J.
This paper introduces a sensor steering methodology based on deep reinforcement learning to enhance the predictive accuracy and decision support capabilities of digital twins by optimising the data acquisition process. Traditional sensor placement techniques are often constrained by one-off optimisation strategies, which limit their applicability for online applications requiring continuous informative data assimilation. The proposed approach addresses this limitation by offering an adaptive framework for sensor placement within the digital twin paradigm. The sensor placement problem is formulated as a Markov decision process, enabling the training and deployment of an agent capable of dynamically repositioning sensors in response to the evolving conditions of the physical structure as represented by the digital twin. This ensures that the digital twin maintains a highly representative and reliable connection to its physical counterpart. The proposed framework is validated through a series of comprehensive case studies involving a cantilever plate structure subjected to diverse conditions, including healthy and damaged conditions. The results demonstrate the capability of the deep reinforcement learning agent to adaptively reposition sensors improving the quality of data acquisition and hence enhancing the overall accuracy of digital twins.
Multiple-input, multiple-output modal testing of a Hawk T1A aircraft: A new full-scale dataset for structural health monitoring
Wilson, James, Champneys, Max D., Tipuric, Matt, Mills, Robin, Wagg, David J., Rogers, Timothy J.
The use of measured vibration data from structures has a long history of enabling the development of methods for inference and monitoring. In particular, applications based on system identification and structural health monitoring have risen to prominence over recent decades and promise significant benefits when implemented in practice. However, significant challenges remain in the development of these methods. The introduction of realistic, full-scale datasets will be an important contribution to overcoming these challenges. This paper presents a new benchmark dataset capturing the dynamic response of a decommissioned BAE Systems Hawk T1A. The dataset reflects the behaviour of a complex structure with a history of service that can still be tested in controlled laboratory conditions, using a variety of known loading and damage simulation conditions. As such, it provides a key stepping stone between simple laboratory test structures and in-service structures. In this paper, the Hawk structure is described in detail, alongside a comprehensive summary of the experimental work undertaken. Following this, key descriptive highlights of the dataset are presented, before a discussion of the research challenges that the data present. Using the dataset, non-linearity in the structure is demonstrated, as well as the sensitivity of the structure to damage of different types. The dataset is highly applicable to many academic enquiries and additional analysis techniques which will enable further advancement of vibration-based engineering techniques.
Baseline Results for Selected Nonlinear System Identification Benchmarks
Champneys, Max D., Beintema, Gerben I., Tรณth, Roland, Schoukens, Maarten, Schoukens, Maarten, Rogers, Timothy J.
Nonlinear system identification remains an important open challenge across research and academia. Large numbers of novel approaches are seen published each year, each presenting improvements or extensions to existing methods. It is natural, therefore, to consider how one might choose between these competing models. Benchmark datasets provide one clear way to approach this question. However, to make meaningful inference based on benchmark performance it is important to understand how well a new method performs comparatively to results available with well-established methods. This paper presents a set of ten baseline techniques and their relative performances on five popular benchmarks. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate thought and discussion regarding objective comparison of identification methodologies.
Probabilistic Numeric SMC Sampling for Bayesian Nonlinear System Identification in Continuous Time
Longbottom, Joe D., Champneys, Max D., Rogers, Timothy J.
In engineering, accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from data contaminated by noise is both essential and complex. Established Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, used for the Bayesian identification of these systems, facilitate the quantification of uncertainty in the parameter identification process. A significant challenge in this context is the numerical integration of continuous-time ordinary differential equations (ODEs), crucial for aligning theoretical models with discretely sampled data. This integration introduces additional numerical uncertainty, a factor that is often over looked. To address this issue, the field of probabilistic numerics combines numerical methods, such as numerical integration, with probabilistic modeling to offer a more comprehensive analysis of total uncertainty. By retaining the accuracy of classical deterministic methods, these probabilistic approaches offer a deeper understanding of the uncertainty inherent in the inference process. This paper demonstrates the application of a probabilistic numerical method for solving ODEs in the joint parameter-state identification of nonlinear dynamic systems. The presented approach efficiently identifies latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements. Simultaneously incorporating probabilistic solutions to the ODE in the identification challenge. The methodology's primary advantage lies in its capability to produce posterior distributions over system parameters, thereby representing the inherent uncertainties in both the data and the identification process.
Sharing Information Between Machine Tools to Improve Surface Finish Forecasting
Clarkson, Daniel R., Bull, Lawrence A., Dardeno, Tina A., Wickramarachchi, Chandula T., Cross, Elizabeth J., Rogers, Timothy J., Worden, Keith, Dervilis, Nikolaos, Hughes, Aidan J.
At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict surface-roughness measurements for a turning machining process. The hierarchical model is compared to multiple independent Bayesian linear regression models to showcase the benefits of partial pooling in a machining setting with respect to prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
A Robust Probabilistic Approach to Stochastic Subspace Identification
O'Connell, Brandon J., Rogers, Timothy J.
Modal parameter estimation of operational structures is often a challenging task when confronted with unwanted distortions (outliers) in field measurements. Atypical observations present a problem to operational modal analysis (OMA) algorithms, such as stochastic subspace identification (SSI), severely biasing parameter estimates and resulting in misidentification of the system. Despite this predicament, no simple mechanism currently exists capable of dealing with such anomalies in SSI. Addressing this problem, this paper first introduces a novel probabilistic formulation of stochastic subspace identification (Prob-SSI), realised using probabilistic projections. Mathematically, the equivalence between this model and the classic algorithm is demonstrated. This fresh perspective, viewing SSI as a problem in probabilistic inference, lays the necessary mathematical foundation to enable a plethora of new, more sophisticated OMA approaches. To this end, a statistically robust SSI algorithm (robust Prob-SSI) is developed, capable of providing a principled and automatic way of handling outlying or anomalous data in the measured timeseries, such as may occur in field recordings, e.g. intermittent sensor dropout. Robust Prob-SSI is shown to outperform conventional SSI when confronted with 'corrupted' data, exhibiting improved identification performance and higher levels of confidence in the found poles when viewing consistency (stabilisation) diagrams. Similar benefits are also demonstrated on the Z24 Bridge benchmark dataset, highlighting enhanced performance on measured systems.
PAO: A general particle swarm algorithm with exact dynamics and closed-form transition densities
Champneys, Max D., Rogers, Timothy J.
A great deal of research has been conducted in the consideration of meta-heuristic optimisation methods that are able to find global optima in settings that gradient based optimisers have traditionally struggled. Of these, so-called particle swarm optimisation (PSO) approaches have proven to be highly effective in a number of application areas. Given the maturity of the PSO field, it is likely that novel variants of the PSO algorithm stand to offer only marginal gains in terms of performance -- there is, after all, no free lunch. Instead of only chasing performance on suites of benchmark optimisation functions, it is argued herein that research effort is better placed in the pursuit of algorithms that also have other useful properties. In this work, a highly-general, interpretable variant of the PSO algorithm -- particle attractor algorithm (PAO) -- is proposed. Furthermore, the algorithm is designed such that the transition densities (describing the motions of the particles from one generation to the next) can be computed exactly in closed form for each step. Access to closed-form transition densities has important ramifications for the closely-related field of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). In order to demonstrate that the useful properties do not come at the cost of performance, PAO is compared to several other state-of-the art heuristic optimisation algorithms in a benchmark comparison study.
A Latent Restoring Force Approach to Nonlinear System Identification
Rogers, Timothy J., Friis, Tobias
Identification of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a significant challenge across engineering. This work suggests an approach based on Bayesian filtering to extract and identify the contribution of an unknown nonlinear term in the system which can be seen as an alternative viewpoint on restoring force surface type approaches. To achieve this identification, the contribution which is the nonlinear restoring force is modelled, initially, as a Gaussian process in time. That Gaussian process is converted into a state-space model and combined with the linear dynamic component of the system. Then, by inference of the filtering and smoothing distributions, the internal states of the system and the nonlinear restoring force can be extracted. In possession of these states a nonlinear model can be constructed. The approach is demonstrated to be effective in both a simulated case study and on an experimental benchmark dataset.
Probabilistic Inference for Structural Health Monitoring: New Modes of Learning from Data
Bull, Lawrence A., Gardner, Paul, Rogers, Timothy J., Cross, Elizabeth J., Dervilis, Nikolaos, Worden, Keith
This material may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be found at https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001106 ABSTRACT In data-driven SHM, the signals recorded from systems in operation can be noisy and incomplete. Data corresponding to each of the operational, environmental, and damage states are rarely available a priori; furthermore, labelling to describe the measurements is often unavailable. In consequence, the algorithms used to implement SHM should be robust and adaptive, while accommodating for missing information in the training-data - such that new information can be included if it becomes available. By reviewing novel techniques for statistical learning (introduced in previous work), it is argued that probabilistic algorithms offer a natural solution to the modelling of SHM data in practice. In three case-studies, probabilistic methods are adapted for applications to SHM signals -- including semi-supervised learning, active learning, and multi-task learning. Various machine learning tools have been applied in the literature, for example (Vanik et al. 2000; Sohn et al. 2003; Chatzi and Smyth 2009), and used to infer the health or performance state of the monitored system, either directly or indirectly. Generally, algorithms for regression, classification, density estimation, or clustering learn patterns in the measured signals (available for training), and the associated patterns can be used to infer the state of the system in operation, given future measurements (Worden and Manson 2006). Unsurprisingly, there are numerous ways to apply machine learning to SHM. Notably (and categorised generally), advances have focussed on various probabilistic (e.g. Each approach has its advantages; however, considering certain challenges associated with SHM data (outlined in the next section) the current work focusses on probabilistic (i.e. Additionally, probabilistic methods can lead to predictions under uncertainty (Papoulis 1965) - a significant advantage in risk-based applications.
Structured Machine Learning Tools for Modelling Characteristics of Guided Waves
Haywood-Alexander, Marcus, Dervilis, Nikolaos, Worden, Keith, Cross, Elizabeth J., Mills, Robin S., Rogers, Timothy J.
The use of ultrasonic guided waves to probe the materials/structures for damage continues to increase in popularity for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM). The use of high-frequency waves such as these offers an advantage over low-frequency methods from their ability to detect damage on a smaller scale. However, in order to assess damage in a structure, and implement any NDE or SHM tool, knowledge of the behaviour of a guided wave throughout the material/structure is important (especially when designing sensor placement for SHM systems). Determining this behaviour is extremely diffcult in complex materials, such as fibre-matrix composites, where unique phenomena such as continuous mode conversion takes place. This paper introduces a novel method for modelling the feature-space of guided waves in a composite material. This technique is based on a data-driven model, where prior physical knowledge can be used to create structured machine learning tools; where constraints are applied to provide said structure. The method shown makes use of Gaussian processes, a full Bayesian analysis tool, and in this paper it is shown how physical knowledge of the guided waves can be utilised in modelling using an ML tool. This paper shows that through careful consideration when applying machine learning techniques, more robust models can be generated which offer advantages such as extrapolation ability and physical interpretation.