Conformal prediction equips machine learning models with a reasonable notion of uncertainty quantification without making strong distributional assumptions. It wraps around any black-box prediction model and converts point predictions into set predictions that have a predefined marginal coverage guarantee. However, conformal prediction only works if we fix the underlying machine learning model in advance. A relatively unaddressed issue in conformal prediction is that of model selection and/or aggregation: for a given problem, which of the plethora of prediction methods (random forests, neural nets, regularized linear models, etc.) should we conformalize? This paper proposes a new approach towards conformal model aggregation in online settings that is based on combining the prediction sets from several algorithms by voting, where weights on the models are adapted over time based on past performance.

In anytime-valid sequential inference, it is known that any admissible inference procedure must be based on test martingales and their composite generalization, called e-processes, which are nonnegative processes whose expectation at any arbitrary stopping time is upper-bounded by one. An e-process quantifies the accumulated evidence against a composite null hypothesis over a sequence of outcomes. This paper studies methods for combining e-processes that are computed using different information sets, i.e., filtrations, for a null hypothesis. Even though e-processes constructed on the same filtration can be combined effortlessly (e.g., by averaging), e-processes constructed on different filtrations cannot be combined as easily because their validity in a coarser filtration does not translate to validity in a finer filtration. We discuss three concrete examples of such e-processes in the literature: exchangeability tests, independence tests, and tests for evaluating and comparing forecasts with lags. Our main result establishes that these e-processes can be lifted into any finer filtration using adjusters, which are functions that allow betting on the running maximum of the accumulated wealth (thereby insuring against the loss of evidence). We also develop randomized adjusters that can improve the power of the resulting sequential inference procedure.

These inequalities are often randomized in a way that renders them strictly tighter than existing deterministic results in the literature, are typically expressed in the Loewner order, and are sometimes valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. Along the way, we explore the theory of matrix supermartingales and maximal inequalities, potentially of independent interest.

We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a fixed sample size. Our approach combines four tools in the following order: (a) nonnegative supermartingales or reverse submartingales, (b) the method of mixtures, (c) the Donsker-Varadhan formula (or other convex duality principles), and (d) Ville's inequality. Our main result is a PAC-Bayes theorem which holds for a wide class of discrete stochastic processes. We show how this result implies time-uniform versions of well-known classical PAC-Bayes bounds, such as those of Seeger, McAllester, Maurer, and Catoni, in addition to many recent bounds. We also present several novel bounds. Our framework also enables us to relax traditional assumptions; in particular, we consider nonstationary loss functions and non-i.i.d. data. In sum, we unify the derivation of past bounds and ease the search for future bounds: one may simply check if our supermartingale or submartingale conditions are met and, if so, be guaranteed a (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes bound.

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit theorem for the Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator, which is semiparametric efficient, under weaker assumptions than those previously made in the literature. This central limit theorem enables efficient inference at fixed sample sizes. We then consider a sequential inference setting, deriving both asymptotic and nonasymptotic confidence sequences that are considerably tighter than previous methods. These anytime-valid methods enable inference under data-dependent stopping times (sample sizes). Additionally, we use propensity score truncation techniques from the recent off-policy estimation literature to reduce the finite sample variance of our estimator without affecting the asymptotic variance. Empirical results demonstrate that our methods yield narrower confidence sequences than those previously developed in the literature while maintaining time-uniform error control.

In many practical applications of differential privacy, practitioners seek to provide the best privacy guarantees subject to a target level of accuracy. A recent line of work by Ligett et al. '17 and Whitehouse et al. '22 has developed such accuracy-first mechanisms by leveraging the idea of noise reduction that adds correlated noise to the sufficient statistic in a private computation and produces a sequence of increasingly accurate answers. A major advantage of noise reduction mechanisms is that the analysts only pay the privacy cost of the least noisy or most accurate answer released. Despite this appealing property in isolation, there has not been a systematic study on how to use them in conjunction with other differentially private mechanisms. A fundamental challenge is that the privacy guarantee for noise reduction mechanisms is (necessarily) formulated as ex-post privacy that bounds the privacy loss as a function of the released outcome. Furthermore, there has yet to be any study on how ex-post private mechanisms compose, which allows us to track the accumulated privacy over several mechanisms. We develop privacy filters [Rogers et al. '16, Feldman and Zrnic '21, and Whitehouse et al. '22'] that allow an analyst to adaptively switch between differentially private and ex-post private mechanisms subject to an overall differential privacy guarantee.

Constructing nonasymptotic confidence intervals (CIs) for the mean of a univariate distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations is a fundamental task in statistics. For bounded observations, a classical nonparametric approach proceeds by inverting standard concentration bounds, such as Hoeffding's or Bernstein's inequalities. Recently, an alternative betting-based approach for defining CIs and their time-uniform variants called confidence sequences (CSs), has been shown to be empirically superior to the classical methods. In this paper, we provide theoretical justification for this improved empirical performance of betting CIs and CSs. Our main contributions are as follows: (i) We first compare CIs using the values of their first-order asymptotic widths (scaled by $\sqrt{n}$), and show that the betting CI of Waudby-Smith and Ramdas (2023) has a smaller limiting width than existing empirical Bernstein (EB)-CIs. (ii) Next, we establish two lower bounds that characterize the minimum width achievable by any method for constructing CIs/CSs in terms of certain inverse information projections. (iii) Finally, we show that the betting CI and CS match the fundamental limits, modulo an additive logarithmic term and a multiplicative constant. Overall these results imply that the betting CI~(and CS) admit stronger theoretical guarantees than the existing state-of-the-art EB-CI~(and CS); both in the asymptotic and finite-sample regimes.

We consider the problem of sequential change detection, where the goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees control on the frequency of false alarms in the absence of changes. In this paper, we describe a simple reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences: we begin a new $(1-\alpha)$-confidence sequence at each time step, and proclaim a change when the intersection of all active confidence sequences becomes empty. We prove that the average run length is at least $1/\alpha$, resulting in a change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions~(thus allowing for possibly dependent observations, and nonparametric distribution classes), but strong guarantees. Our approach bears an interesting parallel with the reduction from change detection to sequential testing of Lorden (1971) and the e-detector of Shin et al. (2022).

We derive and study time-uniform confidence spheres - termed confidence sphere sequences (CSSs) - which contain the mean of random vectors with high probability simultaneously across all sample sizes. Inspired by the original work of Catoni and Giulini, we unify and extend their analysis to cover both the sequential setting and to handle a variety of distributional assumptions. More concretely, our results include an empirical-Bernstein CSS for bounded random vectors (resulting in a novel empirical-Bernstein confidence interval), a CSS for sub-$\psi$ random vectors, and a CSS for heavy-tailed random vectors based on a sequentially valid Catoni-Giulini estimator. Finally, we provide a version of our empirical-Bernstein CSS that is robust to contamination by Huber noise.

There is a disconnect between how researchers and practitioners handle privacy-utility tradeoffs. Researchers primarily operate from a privacy first perspective, setting strict privacy requirements and minimizing risk subject to these constraints. Practitioners often desire an accuracy first perspective, possibly satisfied with the greatest privacy they can get subject to obtaining sufficiently small error. Ligett et al. have introduced a "noise reduction" algorithm to address the latter perspective. The authors show that by adding correlated Laplace noise and progressively reducing it on demand, it is possible to produce a sequence of increasingly accurate estimates of a private parameter while only paying a privacy cost for the least noisy iterate released. In this work, we generalize noise reduction to the setting of Gaussian noise, introducing the Brownian mechanism. The Brownian mechanism works by first adding Gaussian noise of high variance corresponding to the final point of a simulated Brownian motion. Then, at the practitioner's discretion, noise is gradually decreased by tracing back along the Brownian path to an earlier time. Our mechanism is more naturally applicable to the common setting of bounded $\ell_2$-sensitivity, empirically outperforms existing work on common statistical tasks, and provides customizable control of privacy loss over the entire interaction with the practitioner. We complement our Brownian mechanism with ReducedAboveThreshold, a generalization of the classical AboveThreshold algorithm that provides adaptive privacy guarantees. Overall, our results demonstrate that one can meet utility constraints while still maintaining strong levels of privacy.