As one of the most effective self-supervised representation learning methods, contrastive learning (CL) relies on multiple negative pairs to contrast against each positive pair. In the standard practice of contrastive learning, data augmentation methods are utilized to generate both positive and negative pairs. While existing works have been focusing on improving the positive sampling, the negative sampling process is often overlooked. In fact, the generated negative samples are often polluted by positive samples, which leads to a biased loss and performance degradation. To correct the negative sampling bias, we propose a novel contrastive learning method named Positive-Unlabeled Contrastive Learning (PUCL). PUCL treats the generated negative samples as unlabeled samples and uses information from positive samples to correct bias in contrastive loss. We prove that the corrected loss used in PUCL only incurs a negligible bias compared to the unbiased contrastive loss. PUCL can be applied to general contrastive learning problems and outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various image and graph classification tasks. The code of PUCL is in the supplementary file.

With the rapid growth of cloud computing, a variety of software services have been deployed in the cloud. To ensure the reliability of cloud services, prior studies focus on failure instance (disk, node, and switch, etc.) prediction. Once the output of prediction is positive, mitigation actions are taken to rapidly resolve the underlying failure. According to our real-world practice in Microsoft Azure, we find that the prediction accuracy may decrease by about 9% after retraining the models. Considering that the mitigation actions may result in uncertain positive instances since they cannot be verified after mitigation, which may introduce more noise while updating the prediction model. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to identify this Uncertain Positive Learning (UPLearning) issue in the real-world cloud failure prediction scenario. To tackle this problem, we design an Uncertain Positive Learning Risk Estimator (Uptake) approach. Using two real-world datasets of disk failure prediction and conducting node prediction experiments in Microsoft Azure, which is a top-tier cloud provider that serves millions of users, we demonstrate Uptake can significantly improve the failure prediction accuracy by 5% on average.

Large-scale cloud systems play a pivotal role in modern IT infrastructure. However, incidents occurring within these systems can lead to service disruptions and adversely affect user experience. To swiftly resolve such incidents, on-call engineers depend on crafting domain-specific language (DSL) queries to analyze telemetry data. However, writing these queries can be challenging and time-consuming. This paper presents a thorough empirical study on the utilization of queries of KQL, a DSL employed for incident management in a large-scale cloud management system at Microsoft. The findings obtained underscore the importance and viability of KQL queries recommendation to enhance incident management. Building upon these valuable insights, we introduce Xpert, an end-to-end machine learning framework that automates KQL recommendation process. By leveraging historical incident data and large language models, Xpert generates customized KQL queries tailored to new incidents. Furthermore, Xpert incorporates a novel performance metric called Xcore, enabling a thorough evaluation of query quality from three comprehensive perspectives. We conduct extensive evaluations of Xpert, demonstrating its effectiveness in offline settings. Notably, we deploy Xpert in the real production environment of a large-scale incident management system in Microsoft, validating its efficiency in supporting incident management. To the best of our knowledge, this paper represents the first empirical study of its kind, and Xpert stands as a pioneering DSL query recommendation framework designed for incident management.

Offline reinforcement learning faces a significant challenge of value over-estimation due to the distributional drift between the dataset and the current learned policy, leading to learning failure in practice. The common approach is to incorporate a penalty term to reward or value estimation in the Bellman iterations. Meanwhile, to avoid extrapolation on out-of-distribution (OOD) states and actions, existing methods focus on conservative Q-function estimation. In this paper, we propose Conservative State Value Estimation (CSVE), a new approach that learns conservative V-function via directly imposing penalty on OOD states. Compared to prior work, CSVE allows more effective state value estimation with conservative guarantees and further better policy optimization. Further, we apply CSVE and develop a practical actor-critic algorithm in which the critic does the conservative value estimation by additionally sampling and penalizing the states \emph{around} the dataset, and the actor applies advantage weighted updates extended with state exploration to improve the policy. We evaluate in classic continual control tasks of D4RL, showing that our method performs better than the conservative Q-function learning methods and is strongly competitive among recent SOTA methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive abilities in natural language understanding and generation, leading to their use in applications such as chatbots and virtual assistants. However, existing LLM frameworks face limitations in handling domain-specific data analytics tasks with rich data structures. Moreover, they struggle with flexibility to meet diverse user requirements. To address these issues, TaskWeaver is proposed as a code-first framework for building LLM-powered autonomous agents. It converts user requests into executable code and treats user-defined plugins as callable functions. TaskWeaver provides support for rich data structures, flexible plugin usage, and dynamic plugin selection, and leverages LLM coding capabilities for complex logic. It also incorporates domain-specific knowledge through examples and ensures the secure execution of generated code. TaskWeaver offers a powerful and flexible framework for creating intelligent conversational agents that can handle complex tasks and adapt to domain-specific scenarios. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/microsoft/TaskWeaver/.

Modern machine learning systems use models trained on ever-growing corpora. Typically, metadata such as ownership, access control, or licensing information is ignored during training. Instead, to mitigate privacy risks, we rely on generic techniques such as dataset sanitization and differentially private model training, with inherent privacy/utility trade-offs that hurt model performance. Moreover, these techniques have limitations in scenarios where sensitive information is shared across multiple participants and fine-grained access control is required. By ignoring metadata, we therefore miss an opportunity to better address security, privacy, and confidentiality challenges. In this paper, we take an information flow control perspective to describe machine learning systems, which allows us to leverage metadata such as access control policies and define clear-cut privacy and confidentiality guarantees with interpretable information flows. Under this perspective, we contrast two different approaches to achieve user-level non-interference: 1) fine-tuning per-user models, and 2) retrieval augmented models that access user-specific datasets at inference time. We compare these two approaches to a trivially non-interfering zero-shot baseline using a public model and to a baseline that fine-tunes this model on the whole corpus. We evaluate trained models on two datasets of scientific articles and demonstrate that retrieval augmented architectures deliver the best utility, scalability, and flexibility while satisfying strict non-interference guarantees.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series data is of paramount importance for ensuring the efficient operation of large-scale systems across diverse domains. However, accurately detecting anomalies in such data poses significant challenges. Existing approaches, including forecasting and reconstruction-based methods, struggle to address these challenges effectively. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel anomaly detection framework named ImDiffusion, which combines time series imputation and diffusion models to achieve accurate and robust anomaly detection. The imputation-based approach employed by ImDiffusion leverages the information from neighboring values in the time series, enabling precise modeling of temporal and inter-correlated dependencies, reducing uncertainty in the data, thereby enhancing the robustness of the anomaly detection process. ImDiffusion further leverages diffusion models as time series imputers to accurately capturing complex dependencies. We leverage the step-by-step denoised outputs generated during the inference process to serve as valuable signals for anomaly prediction, resulting in improved accuracy and robustness of the detection process. We evaluate the performance of ImDiffusion via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of detection accuracy and timeliness. ImDiffusion is further integrated into the real production system in Microsoft and observe a remarkable 11.4% increase in detection F1 score compared to the legacy approach. To the best of our knowledge, ImDiffusion represents a pioneering approach that combines imputation-based techniques with time series anomaly detection, while introducing the novel use of diffusion models to the field.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized decision-making by breaking down complex problems into more manageable language sequences referred to as ``thoughts''. An effective thought design should consider three key perspectives: performance, efficiency, and flexibility. However, existing thought can at most exhibit two of these attributes. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel thought prompting approach called ``Everything of Thoughts'' (XoT) to defy the law of ``Penrose triangle of existing thought paradigms. XoT leverages pretrained reinforcement learning and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to incorporate external domain knowledge into thoughts, thereby enhancing LLMs' capabilities and enabling them to generalize to unseen problems efficiently. Through the utilization of the MCTS-LLM collaborative thought revision framework, this approach autonomously produces high-quality comprehensive cognitive mappings with minimal LLM interactions. Additionally, XoT empowers LLMs to engage in unconstrained thinking, allowing for flexible cognitive mappings for problems with multiple solutions. We evaluate XoT on several challenging multi-solution problem-solving tasks, including Game of 24, 8-Puzzle, and Pocket Cube. Our results demonstrate that XoT significantly outperforms existing approaches. Notably, XoT can yield multiple solutions with just one LLM call, showcasing its remarkable proficiency in addressing complex problems across diverse domains.

Large Language Model (LLM) has gained popularity and achieved remarkable results in open-domain tasks, but its performance in real industrial domain-specific scenarios is average due to its lack of specific domain knowledge. This issue has attracted widespread attention, but there are few relevant benchmarks available. In this paper, we provide a benchmark Question Answering (QA) dataset named MSQA, centered around Microsoft products and IT technical problems encountered by customers. This dataset contains industry cloud-specific QA knowledge, an area not extensively covered in general LLMs, making it well-suited for evaluating methods aiming to enhance LLMs' domain-specific capabilities. In addition, we propose a new model interaction paradigm that can empower LLM to achieve better performance on domain-specific tasks where it is not proficient. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the approach following our method outperforms the commonly used LLM with retrieval methods. We make our source code and sample data available at: https://aka.ms/Microsoft_QA.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.