We present a method for the analysis of nonstationary time series withmultiple operating modes. In particular, it is possible to detect and to model both a switching of the dynamics and a less abrupt, time consuming drift from one mode to another. This is achieved in two steps. First, an unsupervised training method provides predictionexperts for the inherent dynamical modes. Then, the trained experts are used in a hidden Markov model that allows to model drifts. An application to physiological wake/sleep data demonstrates that analysis and modeling of real-world time series can be improved when the drift paradigm is taken into account.

An adaptive online algorithm extending the learning of learning idea is proposed and theoretically motivated. Relying only on gradient flowinformation it can be applied to learning continuous functions or distributions, even when no explicit loss function is given andthe Hessian is not available. Its efficiency is demonstrated for a non-stationary blind separation task of acoustic signals. 1 Introduction Neural networks provide powerful tools to capture the structure in data by learning. Often the batch learning paradigm is assumed, where the learner is given all training examplessimultaneously and allowed to use them as often as desired. In large practical applications batch learning is often experienced to be rather infeasible and instead online learning is employed.

An adaptive online algorithm extending the learning of learning idea is proposed and theoretically motivated. Relying only on gradient flow information it can be applied to learning continuous functions or distributions, even when no explicit loss function is given and the Hessian is not available. Its efficiency is demonstrated for a non-stationary blind separation task of acoustic signals.

A statistical theory for overtraining is proposed. The analysis treats realizable stochastic neural networks, trained with Kullback Leibler loss in the asymptotic case. It is shown that the asymptotic gain in the generalization error is small if we perform early stopping, even if we have access to the optimal stopping time. Considering cross-validation stopping we answer the question: In what ratio the examples should be divided into training and testing sets in order to obtain the optimum performance. In the non-asymptotic region cross-validated early stopping always decreases the generalization error. Our large scale simulations done on a CM5 are in nice agreement with our analytical findings.

A statistical theory for overtraining is proposed. The analysis treats realizable stochastic neural networks, trained with Kullback Leibler loss in the asymptotic case. It is shown that the asymptotic gain in the generalization error is small if we perform early stopping, evenif we have access to the optimal stopping time. Considering cross-validation stopping we answer the question: In what ratio the examples should be divided into training and testing sets in order toobtain the optimum performance. In the non-asymptotic region cross-validated early stopping always decreases the generalization error.Our large scale simulations done on a CM5 are in nice agreement with our analytical findings.