Accurate motion forecasting is essential for the safety and reliability of autonomous driving (AD) systems. While existing methods have made significant progress, they often overlook explicit safety constraints and struggle to capture the complex interactions among traffic agents, environmental factors, and motion dynamics. To address these challenges, we present SafeCast, a risk-responsive motion forecasting model that integrates safety-aware decision-making with uncertainty-aware adaptability. SafeCast is the first to incorporate the Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS) framework into motion forecasting, encoding interpretable safety rules--such as safe distances and collision avoidance--based on traffic norms and physical principles. To further enhance robustness, we introduce the Graph Uncertainty Feature (GUF), a graph-based module that injects learnable noise into Graph Attention Networks, capturing real-world uncertainties and enhancing generalization across diverse scenarios. We evaluate SafeCast on four real-world benchmark datasets--Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), ApolloScape, and the Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD)--covering highway, urban, and mixed-autonomy traffic environments. Our model achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy while maintaining a lightweight architecture and low inference latency, underscoring its potential for real-time deployment in safety-critical AD systems.

Accurate motion forecasting is crucial for safe autonomous driving (AD). This study proposes CoT-Drive, a novel approach that enhances motion forecasting by leveraging large language models (LLMs) and a chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting method. We introduce a teacher-student knowledge distillation strategy to effectively transfer LLMs' advanced scene understanding capabilities to lightweight language models (LMs), ensuring that CoT-Drive operates in real-time on edge devices while maintaining comprehensive scene understanding and generalization capabilities. By leveraging CoT prompting techniques for LLMs without additional training, CoT-Drive generates semantic annotations that significantly improve the understanding of complex traffic environments, thereby boosting the accuracy and robustness of predictions. Additionally, we present two new scene description datasets, Highway-Text and Urban-Text, designed for fine-tuning lightweight LMs to generate context-specific semantic annotations. Comprehensive evaluations of five real-world datasets demonstrate that CoT-Drive outperforms existing models, highlighting its effectiveness and efficiency in handling complex traffic scenarios. Overall, this study is the first to consider the practical application of LLMs in this field. It pioneers the training and use of a lightweight LLM surrogate for motion forecasting, setting a new benchmark and showcasing the potential of integrating LLMs into AD systems.

--In mixed autonomous driving environments, accurately predicting the future trajectories of surrounding vehicles is crucial for the safe operation of autonomous vehicles (A Vs). In driving scenarios, a vehicle's trajectory is determined by the decision-making process of human drivers. However, existing models primarily focus on the inherent statistical patterns in the data, often neglecting the critical aspect of understanding the decision-making processes of human drivers. This oversight results in models that fail to capture the true intentions of human drivers, leading to suboptimal performance in long-term trajectory prediction. T o address this limitation, we introduce a Cognitive-Informed Transformer (CITF) that incorporates a cognitive concept, Perceived Safety, to interpret drivers' decision-making mechanisms. Specifically, we develop a Perceived Safety-aware Module that includes a Quantitative Safety Assessment for measuring the subject risk levels within scenarios, and Driver Behavior Profiling for characterizing driver behaviors. Furthermore, we present a novel module, Leanformer, designed to capture social interactions among vehicles. CITF demonstrates significant performance improvements on three well-established datasets. Additionally, its robustness in scenarios with limited or missing data is evident, surpassing most state-of-the-art (SOT A) baselines, and paving the way for real-world applications. N the evolving landscape of autonomous driving (AD) systems, the complex interactions between autonomous vehicles (A Vs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs) present a significant challenge to achieving accurate trajectory prediction [1], [2]. The future trajectory of human-driven vehicles is essentially the result of the human driver's decision-making process [3], [4]. Corresponding author; * Authors contributed equally. Haicheng Liao, Chengyue Wang, Kaiqun Zhu, Chengzhong Xu, and Zhenning Li are with the State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau. Yilong Ren is with the School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China. Bolin Gao and Shengbo Eben Li are with the School of V ehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. This research is supported by the State Key Lab of Intelligent Transportation System under Project (2024-B001), Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau SAR (File no. Nevertheless, long-term prediction necessitates models that accurately estimate the impact of numerous factors on the decision-making process of human drivers, a feat that is particularly challenging to achieve [8].

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) rely on accurate trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles to ensure the safety of both passengers and other road users. Trajectory prediction spans both short-term and long-term horizons, each requiring distinct considerations: short-term predictions rely on accurately capturing the vehicle's dynamics, while long-term predictions rely on accurately modeling the interaction patterns within the environment. However current approaches, either physics-based or learning-based models, always ignore these distinct considerations, making them struggle to find the optimal prediction for both short-term and long-term horizon. In this paper, we introduce the Dynamics-Enhanced Learning MOdel (DEMO), a novel approach that combines a physics-based Vehicle Dynamics Model with advanced deep learning algorithms. DEMO employs a two-stage architecture, featuring a Dynamics Learning Stage and an Interaction Learning Stage, where the former stage focuses on capturing vehicle motion dynamics and the latter focuses on modeling interaction. By capitalizing on the respective strengths of both methods, DEMO facilitates multi-horizon predictions for future trajectories. Experimental results on the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Macau Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD), Highway Drone (HighD), and nuScenes datasets demonstrate that DEMO outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines in both short-term and long-term prediction horizons.

Accurate trajectory prediction is essential for the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving. Traditional models often struggle with real-time processing, capturing non-linearity and uncertainty in traffic environments, efficiency in dense traffic, and modeling temporal dynamics of interactions. We introduce NEST (Neuromodulated Small-world Hypergraph Trajectory Prediction), a novel framework that integrates Small-world Networks and hypergraphs for superior interaction modeling and prediction accuracy. This integration enables the capture of both local and extended vehicle interactions, while the Neuromodulator component adapts dynamically to changing traffic conditions. We validate the NEST model on several real-world datasets, including nuScenes, MoCAD, and HighD. The results consistently demonstrate that NEST outperforms existing methods in various traffic scenarios, showcasing its exceptional generalization capability, efficiency, and temporal foresight. Our comprehensive evaluation illustrates that NEST significantly improves the reliability and operational efficiency of autonomous driving systems, making it a robust solution for trajectory prediction in complex traffic environments.

Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) often requires human takeover for tasks such as exiting a freeway. Direct human takeover can pose significant risks, especially given the close-following strategy employed by CACC, which might cause drivers to feel unsafe and execute hard braking, potentially leading to collisions. This research aims to develop a CACC takeover controller that ensures a smooth transition from automated to human control. The proposed CACC takeover maneuver employs an indirect human-machine shared control approach, modeled as a Stackelberg competition where the machine acts as the leader and the human as the follower. The machine guides the human to respond in a manner that aligns with the machine's expectations, aiding in maintaining following stability. Additionally, the human reaction function is integrated into the machine's predictive control system, moving beyond a simple "prediction-planning" pipeline to enhance planning optimality. The controller has been verified to i) enable a smooth takeover maneuver of CACC; ii) ensure string stability within a specific Operational Design Domain (ODD) when human control authority is below 32.7%; iii) enhance both perceived and actual safety through machine interventions; and iv) reduce the impact on upstream traffic by up to 60%.

Accurately and safely predicting the trajectories of surrounding vehicles is essential for fully realizing autonomous driving (AD). This paper presents the Human-Like Trajectory Prediction model (HLTP++), which emulates human cognitive processes to improve trajectory prediction in AD. HLTP++ incorporates a novel teacher-student knowledge distillation framework. The "teacher" model equipped with an adaptive visual sector, mimics the dynamic allocation of attention human drivers exhibit based on factors like spatial orientation, proximity, and driving speed. On the other hand, the "student" model focuses on real-time interaction and human decision-making, drawing parallels to the human memory storage mechanism. Furthermore, we improve the model's efficiency by introducing a new Fourier Adaptive Spike Neural Network (FA-SNN), allowing for faster and more precise predictions with fewer parameters. Evaluated using the NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD benchmarks, HLTP++ demonstrates superior performance compared to existing models, which reduces the predicted trajectory error with over 11% on the NGSIM dataset and 25% on the HighD datasets. Moreover, HLTP++ demonstrates strong adaptability in challenging environments with incomplete input data. This marks a significant stride in the journey towards fully AD systems.

Although traffic prediction has been receiving considerable attention with a number of successes in the context of intelligent transportation systems, the prediction of traffic states over a complex transportation network that contains different road types has remained a challenge. This study proposes a multi-scale graph wavelet temporal convolution network (MSGWTCN) to predict the traffic states in complex transportation networks. Specifically, a multi-scale spatial block is designed to simultaneously capture the spatial information at different levels, and the gated temporal convolution network is employed to extract the temporal dependencies of the data. The model jointly learns to mount multiple levels of the spatial interactions by stacking graph wavelets with different scales. Two real-world datasets are used in this study to investigate the model performance, including a highway network in Seattle and a dense road network of Manhattan in New York City. Experiment results show that the proposed model outperforms other baseline models. Furthermore, different scales of graph wavelets are found to be effective in extracting local, intermediate and global information at the same time and thus enable the model to learn a complex transportation network topology with various types of road segments. By carefully customizing the scales of wavelets, the model is able to improve the prediction performance and better adapt to different network configurations.

While deep learning has shown success in predicting traffic states, most methods treat it as a general prediction task without considering transportation aspects. Recently, graph neural networks have proven effective for this task, but few incorporate external factors that impact roadway capacity and traffic flow. This study introduces the Roadway Capacity Driven Graph Convolution Network (RCDGCN) model, which incorporates static and dynamic roadway capacity attributes in spatio-temporal settings to predict network-wide traffic states. The model was evaluated on two real-world datasets with different transportation factors: the ICM-495 highway network and an urban network in Manhattan, New York City. Results show RCDGCN outperformed baseline methods in forecasting accuracy. Analyses, including ablation experiments, weight analysis, and case studies, investigated the effect of capacity-related factors. The study demonstrates the potential of using RCDGCN for transportation system management.

Personalization is crucial for the widespread adoption of advanced driver assistance system. To match up with each user's preference, the online evolution capability is a must. However, conventional evolution methods learn from naturalistic driving data, which requires a lot computing power and cannot be applied online. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a lesson learning approach: learning from driver's takeover interventions. By leveraging online takeover data, the driving zone is generated to ensure perceived safety using Gaussian discriminant analysis. Real-time corrections to trajectory planning rewards are enacted through apprenticeship learning. Guided by the objective of optimizing rewards within the constraints of the driving zone, this approach employs model predictive control for trajectory planning. This lesson learning framework is highlighted for its faster evolution capability, adeptness at experience accumulating, assurance of perceived safety, and computational efficiency. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed system consistently achieves a successful customization without further takeover interventions. Accumulated experience yields a 24% enhancement in evolution efficiency. The average number of learning iterations is only 13.8. The average computation time is 0.08 seconds.