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Kaushal Paneri
Integrating Markov processes with structural causal modeling enables counterfactual inference in complex systems
Robert Ness, Kaushal Paneri, Olga Vitek
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon intervention, but do not support counterfactual inference. In contrast, structural causal models support counterfactual inference, but do not identify the mechanisms.
Integrating Markov processes with structural causal modeling enables counterfactual inference in complex systems
Robert Ness, Kaushal Paneri, Olga Vitek
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon intervention, but do not support counterfactual inference. In contrast, structural causal models support counterfactual inference, but do not identify the mechanisms.