Jordan, Michael I.
First-Order Algorithms for Nonlinear Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problems
Jordan, Michael I., Lin, Tianyi, Zampetakis, Manolis
The Nash equilibrium problem (NEP) [Nash, 1950, 1951] is a central topic in mathematics, economics and computer science. NEP problems have begun to play an important role in machine learning as researchers begin to focus on decisions, incentives and the dynamics of multi-agent learning. In a classical NEP, the payoff to each player depends upon the strategies chosen by all, but the domains from which the strategies are to be chosen for each player are independent of the strategies chosen by other players. The goal is to arrive at a joint optimal outcome where no player can do better by deviating unilaterally [Osborne and Rubinstein, 1994, Myerson, 2013]. The generalized Nash equilibrium problem (GNEP) is a natural generalization of an NEP where the choice of an action by one agent affects both the payoff and the domain of actions of all other agents [Arrow and Debreu, 1954]. Its introduction in the 1950's provided the foundation for a rigorous theory of economic equilibrium [Debreu, 1952, Arrow and Debreu, 1954, Debreu, 1959]. More recently, the GNEP problem has emerged as a powerful paradigm in a range of engineering applications involving noncooperative games. In particular, in the survey of Facchinei and Kanzow [2010a], three general classes of problems were developed in detail: the abstract model of general equilibrium, power allocation in a telecommunication system, and environmental pollution control.
Principal-Agent Hypothesis Testing
Bates, Stephen, Jordan, Michael I., Sklar, Michael, Soloff, Jake A.
Consider the relationship between a regulator (the principal) and a pharmaceutical company (the agent). The pharmaceutical company wishes to sell a product to make a profit, and the FDA wishes to ensure that only efficacious drugs are released to the public. The efficacy of the drug is not known to the FDA, so the pharmaceutical company must run a costly trial to prove efficacy to the FDA. Critically, the statistical protocol used to establish efficacy affects the behavior of a strategic, self-interested pharmaceutical company; a lower standard of statistical evidence incentivizes the pharmaceutical company to run more trials for drugs that are less likely to be effective, since the drug may pass the trial by chance, resulting in large profits. The interaction between the statistical protocol and the incentives of the pharmaceutical company is crucial to understanding this system and designing protocols with high social utility. In this work, we discuss how the principal and agent can enter into a contract with payoffs based on statistical evidence. When there is stronger evidence for the quality of the product, the principal allows the agent to make a larger profit. We show how to design contracts that are robust to an agent's strategic actions, and derive the optimal contract in the presence of strategic behavior.
Incentive-Aware Recommender Systems in Two-Sided Markets
Dai, Xiaowu, Yuan, null, Qi, null, Jordan, Michael I.
Online platforms in the Internet Economy commonly incorporate recommender systems that recommend arms (e.g., products) to agents (e.g., users). In such platforms, a myopic agent has a natural incentive to exploit, by choosing the best product given the current information rather than to explore various alternatives to collect information that will be used for other agents. We propose a novel recommender system that respects agents' incentives and enjoys asymptotically optimal performances expressed by the regret in repeated games. We model such an incentive-aware recommender system as a multi-agent bandit problem in a two-sided market which is equipped with an incentive constraint induced by agents' opportunity costs. If the opportunity costs are known to the principal, we show that there exists an incentive-compatible recommendation policy, which pools recommendations across a genuinely good arm and an unknown arm via a randomized and adaptive approach. On the other hand, if the opportunity costs are unknown to the principal, we propose a policy that randomly pools recommendations across all arms and uses each arm's cumulative loss as feedback for exploration. We show that both policies also satisfy an ex-post fairness criterion, which protects agents from over-exploitation.
On Constraints in First-Order Optimization: A View from Non-Smooth Dynamical Systems
Muehlebach, Michael, Jordan, Michael I.
We introduce a class of first-order methods for smooth constrained optimization that are based on an analogy to non-smooth dynamical systems. Two distinctive features of our approach are that (i) projections or optimizations over the entire feasible set are avoided, in stark contrast to projected gradient methods or the Frank-Wolfe method, and (ii) iterates are allowed to become infeasible, which differs from active set or feasible direction methods, where the descent motion stops as soon as a new constraint is encountered. The resulting algorithmic procedure is simple to implement even when constraints are nonlinear, and is suitable for large-scale constrained optimization problems in which the feasible set fails to have a simple structure. The key underlying idea is that constraints are expressed in terms of velocities instead of positions, which has the algorithmic consequence that optimizations over feasible sets at each iteration are replaced with optimizations over local, sparse convex approximations. In particular, this means that at each iteration only constraints that are violated are taken into account. The result is a simplified suite of algorithms and an expanded range of possible applications in machine learning.
A General Framework for Sample-Efficient Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning
Chen, Zixiang, Li, Chris Junchi, Yuan, Angela, Gu, Quanquan, Jordan, Michael I.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a decision-making process that seeks to maximize the expected reward when an agent interacts with the environment [Sutton and Barto, 2018]. Over the past decade, RL has gained increasing attention due to its successes in a wide range of domains, including Atari games [Mnih et al., 2013], Go game [Silver et al., 2016], autonomous driving [Yurtsever et al., 2020], Robotics [Kober et al., 2013], etc. Existing RL algorithms can be categorized into value-based algorithms such as Q-learning [Watkins, 1989] and policy-based algorithms such as policy gradient [Sutton et al., 1999]. They can also be categorized as a model-free approach where one directly models the value function classes, or alternatively, a model-based approach where one needs to estimate the transition probability. Due to the intractably large state and action spaces that are used to model the real-world complex environment, function approximation in RL has become prominent in both algorithm design and theoretical analysis. It is a pressing challenge to design sample-efficient RL algorithms with general function approximations. In the special case where the underlying Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) enjoy certain linear structures, several lines of works have achieved polynomial sample complexity and/or T regret guarantees under either model-free or model-based RL settings. For linear MDPs where the transition probability and the reward function admit linear structure, Yang and Wang [2019] developed a variant of Q-learning when granted access to a generative model, Jin et al. [2020] proposed an LSVI-UCB algorithm with a ร( d
Breaking Feedback Loops in Recommender Systems with Causal Inference
Krauth, Karl, Wang, Yixin, Jordan, Michael I.
Recommender systems play a key role in shaping modern web ecosystems. These systems alternate between (1) making recommendations (2) collecting user responses to these recommendations, and (3) retraining the recommendation algorithm based on this feedback. During this process the recommender system influences the user behavioral data that is subsequently used to update it, thus creating a feedback loop. Recent work has shown that feedback loops may compromise recommendation quality and homogenize user behavior, raising ethical and performance concerns when deploying recommender systems. To address these issues, we propose the Causal Adjustment for Feedback Loops (CAFL), an algorithm that provably breaks feedback loops using causal inference and can be applied to any recommendation algorithm that optimizes a training loss. Our main observation is that a recommender system does not suffer from feedback loops if it reasons about causal quantities, namely the intervention distributions of recommendations on user ratings. Moreover, we can calculate this intervention distribution from observational data by adjusting for the recommender system's predictions of user preferences. Using simulated environments, we demonstrate that CAFL improves recommendation quality when compared to prior correction methods.
NumS: Scalable Array Programming for the Cloud
Elibol, Melih, Benara, Vinamra, Yagati, Samyu, Zheng, Lianmin, Cheung, Alvin, Jordan, Michael I., Stoica, Ion
Scientists increasingly rely on Python tools to perform scalable distributed memory array operations using rich, NumPy-like expressions. However, many of these tools rely on dynamic schedulers optimized for abstract task graphs, which often encounter memory and network bandwidth-related bottlenecks due to sub-optimal data and operator placement decisions. Tools built on the message passing interface (MPI), such as ScaLAPACK and SLATE, have better scaling properties, but these solutions require specialized knowledge to use. In this work, we present NumS, an array programming library which optimizes NumPy-like expressions on task-based distributed systems. This is achieved through a novel scheduler called Load Simulated Hierarchical Scheduling (LSHS). LSHS is a local search method which optimizes operator placement by minimizing maximum memory and network load on any given node within a distributed system. Coupled with a heuristic for load balanced data layouts, our approach is capable of attaining communication lower bounds on some common numerical operations, and our empirical study shows that LSHS enhances performance on Ray by decreasing network load by a factor of 2x, requiring 4x less memory, and reducing execution time by 10x on the logistic regression problem. On terabyte-scale data, NumS achieves competitive performance to SLATE on DGEMM, up to 20x speedup over Dask on a key operation for tensor factorization, and a 2x speedup on logistic regression compared to Dask ML and Spark's MLlib.
Recommendation Systems with Distribution-Free Reliability Guarantees
Angelopoulos, Anastasios N., Krauth, Karl, Bates, Stephen, Wang, Yixin, Jordan, Michael I.
The digitization of all manner of services has introduced recommendation systems into many aspects of our day-to-day lives. In particular, recommendation systems are now being applied to safety-critical domains such as making lifestyle recommendations to patients in healthcare [Hammer et al., 2015, Tran et al., 2021]. It is therefore increasingly important that deployed recommender systems do not output recommendations devoid of uncertainty annotations. Meaningful recommendations should come with transparent and reliable statistical assessments. To date, the majority of deployed systems have fallen far short of this desideratum [Covington et al., 2016, Liu et al., 2017, Geyik et al., 2018]. Augmenting recommendation systems with internal tracking of statistical error rates would unlock new capabilities and applications. One such capability is the ability to enforce auxiliary constraints while still guaranteeing a baseline number of high-quality items in each slate of recommendations. For example, we could diversify slates whose quality we are confident in, while leaving lower-confidence slates untouched. Furthermore, the strong guarantees provided by uncertainty quantification are a prerequisite for applying recommendation systems to safety-critical tasks such as medical diagnosis, where a misdiagnosis due to uncertain predictions can be fatal.
Robust Calibration with Multi-domain Temperature Scaling
Yu, Yaodong, Bates, Stephen, Ma, Yi, Jordan, Michael I.
Uncertainty quantification is essential for the reliable deployment of machine learning models to high-stakes application domains. Uncertainty quantification is all the more challenging when training distribution and test distribution are different, even the distribution shifts are mild. Despite the ubiquity of distribution shifts in real-world applications, existing uncertainty quantification approaches mainly study the in-distribution setting where the train and test distributions are the same. In this paper, we develop a systematic calibration model to handle distribution shifts by leveraging data from multiple domains. Our proposed method -- multi-domain temperature scaling -- uses the heterogeneity in the domains to improve calibration robustness under distribution shift. Through experiments on three benchmark data sets, we find our proposed method outperforms existing methods as measured on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
Conformal prediction for the design problem
Fannjiang, Clara, Bates, Stephen, Angelopoulos, Anastasios N., Listgarten, Jennifer, Jordan, Michael I.
Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach for designing proteins is to train a regression model to predict the fitness of protein sequences, then use it to propose new sequences believed to exhibit greater fitness than observed in the training data. Since validating designed sequences in the wet lab is typically costly, it is important to quantify the uncertainty in the model's predictions. This is challenging because of a characteristic type of distribution shift between the training and test data in the design setting -- one in which the training and test data are statistically dependent, as the latter is chosen based on the former. Consequently, the model's error on the test data -- that is, the designed sequences -- has an unknown and possibly complex relationship with its error on the training data. We introduce a method to quantify predictive uncertainty in such settings. We do so by constructing confidence sets for predictions that account for the dependence between the training and test data. The confidence sets we construct have finite-sample guarantees that hold for any prediction algorithm, even when a trained model chooses the test-time input distribution. As a motivating use case, we demonstrate with several real data sets how our method quantifies uncertainty for the predicted fitness of designed proteins, and can therefore be used to select design algorithms that achieve acceptable trade-offs between high predicted fitness and low predictive uncertainty.