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Iain Murray
Fast ε-free Inference of Simulation Models with Bayesian Conditional Density Estimation
George Papamakarios, Iain Murray
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an ɛ-ball around the observed data, which is only correct in the limit ɛ 0. Monte Carlo methods can then draw samples from the approximate posterior to approximate predictions or error bars on parameters.