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Collaborating Authors

 He, Yuanpeng


Differential Convolutional Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) is a typical forecasting method with wide application. Traditional FTSF is regarded as an expert system which leads to loss of the ability to recognize undefined features. The mentioned is the main reason for poor forecasting with FTSF. To solve the problem, the proposed model Differential Fuzzy Convolutional Neural Network (DFCNN) utilizes a convolution neural network to re-implement FTSF with learnable ability. DFCNN is capable of recognizing potential information and improving forecasting accuracy. Thanks to the learnable ability of the neural network, the length of fuzzy rules established in FTSF is expended to an arbitrary length that the expert is not able to handle by the expert system. At the same time, FTSF usually cannot achieve satisfactory performance of non-stationary time series due to the trend of non-stationary time series. The trend of non-stationary time series causes the fuzzy set established by FTSF to be invalid and causes the forecasting to fail. DFCNN utilizes the Difference algorithm to weaken the non-stationary of time series so that DFCNN can forecast the non-stationary time series with a low error that FTSF cannot forecast in satisfactory performance. After the mass of experiments, DFCNN has an excellent prediction effect, which is ahead of the existing FTSF and common time series forecasting algorithms. Finally, DFCNN provides further ideas for improving FTSF and holds continued research value.


Time Series Forecasting via Semi-Asymmetric Convolutional Architecture with Global Atrous Sliding Window

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The proposed method in this paper is designed to address the problem of time series forecasting. Although some exquisitely designed models achieve excellent prediction performances, how to extract more useful information and make accurate predictions is still an open issue. Most of modern models only focus on a short range of information, which are fatal for problems such as time series forecasting which needs to capture long-term information characteristics. As a result, the main concern of this work is to further mine relationship between local and global information contained in time series to produce more precise predictions. In this paper, to satisfactorily realize the purpose, we make three main contributions that are experimentally verified to have performance advantages. Firstly, original time series is transformed into difference sequence which serves as input to the proposed model. And secondly, we introduce the global atrous sliding window into the forecasting model which references the concept of fuzzy time series to associate relevant global information with temporal data within a time period and utilizes central-bidirectional atrous algorithm to capture underlying-related features to ensure validity and consistency of captured data. Thirdly, a variation of widely-used asymmetric convolution which is called semi-asymmetric convolution is devised to more flexibly extract relationships in adjacent elements and corresponding associated global features with adjustable ranges of convolution on vertical and horizontal directions. The proposed model in this paper achieves state-of-the-art on most of time series datasets provided compared with competitive modern models.


DVS: Deep Visibility Series and its Application in Construction Cost Index Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting has always been a hot spot in scientific research. With the development of artificial intelligence, new time series forecasting methods have obtained better forecasting effects and forecasting performance through bionic research and improvements to the past methods. Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm is often used for time series prediction in previous research, but the prediction effect is not as good as deep learning prediction methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) prediction. The VG algorithm contains a wealth of network information, but previous studies did not effectively use the network information to make predictions, resulting in relatively large prediction errors. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes the Deep Visibility Series (DVS) module through the bionic design of VG and the expansion of the past research, which is the first time to combine VG with bionic design and deep network. By applying the bionic design of biological vision to VG, the time series of DVS has obtained superior forecast accuracy, which has made a contribution to time series forecasting. At the same time, this paper applies the DVS forecasting method to the construction cost index forecast, which has practical significance.


Uncertainty Measurement of Basic Probability Assignment Integrity Based on Approximate Entropy in Evidence Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Evidence theory is that the extension of probability can better deal with unknowns and inaccurate information. Uncertainty measurement plays a vital role in both evidence theory and probability theory. Approximate Entropy (ApEn) is proposed by Pincus to describe the irregularities of complex systems. The more irregular the time series, the greater the approximate entropy. The ApEn of the network represents the ability of a network to generate new nodes, or the possibility of undiscovered nodes. Through the association of network characteristics and basic probability assignment (BPA) , a measure of the uncertainty of BPA regarding completeness can be obtained. The main contribution of paper is to define the integrity of the basic probability assignment then the approximate entropy of the BPA is proposed to measure the uncertainty of the integrity of the BPA. The proposed method is based on the logical network structure to calculate the uncertainty of BPA in evidence theory. The uncertainty based on the proposed method represents the uncertainty of integrity of BPA and contributes to the identification of the credibility of BPA.


Fortified quantum mass function utilizing ordinal pictorial check based on time interval analysis and expertise

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A lot of relevant works have been completed to provided different kinds of method to properly handle information offered which promotes the development of information industry. The representatives of the corresponding theories are soft theory [1-5], Z-numbers [6-9], D-numbers [10-14], fuzzy theory [15-18], Dempster-Shafer evidence theory [19-23] and some other mixed theories [24-26]. And the effectiveness of these theories are verified in many practical applications, like risk evaluation [27-29], pattern classification [30], optimization [31-34] and decision making [35-38]. Moreover, due to the rapid progress of quantum computing, some researchers come up with the idea that traditional information management can be transferred to the level of quantum. Some meaningful works about the topic are complex mass function [39-43] and quantum information theory [44-47]. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the quantum model of mass function [47]. In order to avoid the deviation which may caused by the original quantum evidences, a dual check system is designed to ensure the authenticity of the original judgments which utilizes the concept of Z-number [9]. Besides, because of the introduction of the time interval, a specially devised rule is proposed to appropriately decide the importance of different relationships of incidents, which is a kind of expert system under some restrictions. The contributions of the proposed method can be listed as: (1) The second dual check system can help avoid the deviation produced by the original evidences to help provide more effective results.


MMGET: A Markov model for generalized evidence theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In real life, lots of information merges from time to time. To appropriately describe the actual situations, lots of theories have been proposed. Among them, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is a very useful tool in managing uncertain information. To better adapt to complex situations of open world, a generalized evidence theory is designed. However, everything occurs in sequence and owns some underlying relationships with each other. In order to further embody the details of information and better conforms to situations of real world, a Markov model is introduced into the generalized evidence theory which helps extract complete information volume from evidence provided. Besides, some numerical examples is offered to verify the correctness and rationality of the proposed method.


An approach utilizing negation of extended-dimensional vector of disposing mass for ordinal evidences combination in a fuzzy environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How to measure the degree of uncertainty of a given frame of discernment has been a hot topic for years. A lot of meaningful works have provided some effective methods to measure the degree properly. However, a crucial factor, sequence of propositions, is missing in the definition of traditional frame of discernment. In this paper, a detailed definition of ordinal frame of discernment has been provided. Besides, an innovative method utilizing a concept of computer vision to combine the order of propositions and the mass of them is proposed to better manifest relationships between the two important element of the frame of discernment. More than that, a specially designed method covering some powerful tools in indicating the degree of uncertainty of a traditional frame of discernment is also offered to give an indicator of level of uncertainty of an ordinal frame of discernment on the level of vector.


Combining conflicting ordinal quantum evidences utilizing individual reliability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How to combine uncertain information from different sources has been a hot topic for years. However, with respect to ordinal quantum evidences contained in information, there is no any referable work which is able to provide a solution to this kind of problem. Besides, the method to dispel uncertainty of quantum information is still an open issue. Therefore, in this paper, a specially designed method is designed to provide an excellent method which improves the combination of ordinal quantum evidences reasonably and reduce the effects brought by uncertainty contained in quantum information simultaneously. Besides, some actual applications are provided to verify the correctness and validity of the proposed method.


Ordinal relative belief entropy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Specially customised Entropies are widely applied in measuring the degree of uncertainties existing in the frame of discernment. However, all of these entropies regard the frame as a whole that has already been determined which dose not conform to actual situations. In real life, everything comes in an order, so how to measure uncertainties of the dynamic process of determining sequence of propositions contained in a frame of discernment is still an open issue and no related research has been proceeded. Therefore, a novel ordinal entropy to measure uncertainties of the frame of discernment considering the order of confirmation of propositions is proposed in this paper. Compared with traditional entropies, it manifests effects on degree of uncertainty brought by orders of propositions existing in a frame of discernment. Besides, some numerical examples are provided to verify the correctness and validity of the proposed entropy in this paper.


A new distance measure of Pythagorean fuzzy sets based on matrix and and its application in medical diagnosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS) which is developed based on intuitionistic fuzzy set, is more efficient in elaborating and disposing uncertainties in indeterminate situations, which is a very reason of that PFS is applied in various kinds of fields. How to measure the distance between two pythagorean fuzzy sets is still an open issue. Mnay kinds of methods have been proposed to present the of the question in former reaserches. However, not all of existing methods can accurately manifest differences among pythagorean fuzzy sets and satisfy the property of similarity. And some other kinds of methods neglect the relationship among three variables of pythagorean fuzzy set. To addrees the proplem, a new method of measuring distance is proposed which meets the requirements of axiom of distance measurement and is able to indicate the degree of distinction of PFSs well. Then some numerical examples are offered to to verify that the method of measuring distances can avoid the situation that some counter? intuitive and irrational results are produced and is more effective, reasonable and advanced than other similar methods. Besides, the proposed method of measuring distances between PFSs is applied in a real environment of application which is the medical diagnosis and is compared with other previous methods to demonstrate its superiority and efficiency. And the feasibility of the proposed method in handling uncertainties in practice is also proved at the same time.