In this work, we present an additive model for space-time data that splits the data into a temporally correlated component and a spatially correlated component. We model the spatially correlated portion using a time-varying Gaussian graphical model. Under assumptions on the smoothness of changes in covariance matrices, we derive strong single sample convergence results, confirming our ability to estimate meaningful graphical structures as they evolve over time. We apply our methodology to the discovery of time-varying spatial structures in human brain fMRI signals.

Contextual bandits have become popular as they offer a middle ground between very simple approaches based on multi-armed bandits and very complex approaches using the full power of reinforcement learning. They have demonstrated success in web applications and have a rich body of associated theoretical guarantees. Linear models are well understood theoretically and preferred by practitioners because they are not only easily interpretable but also simple to implement and debug. Furthermore, if the linear model is true, we get very strong performance guarantees. Unfortunately, in emerging applications in mobile health, the time-invariant linear model assumption is untenable. We provide an extension of the linear model for contextual bandits that has two parts: baseline reward and treatment effect. We allow the former to be complex but keep the latter simple. We argue that this model is plausible for mobile health applications. At the same time, it leads to algorithms with strong performance guarantees as in the linear model setting, while still allowing for complex nonlinear baseline modeling. Our theory is supported by experiments on data gathered in a recently concluded mobile health study.

Recent work in distance metric learning has focused on learning transformations of data that best align with specified pairwise similarity and dissimilarity constraints, often supplied by a human observer. The learned transformations lead to improved retrieval, classification, and clustering algorithms due to the better adapted distance or similarity measures. Here, we address the problem of learning these transformations when the underlying constraint generation process is nonstationary. This nonstationarity can be due to changes in either the ground-truth clustering used to generate constraints or changes in the feature subspaces in which the class structure is apparent. We propose Online Convex Ensemble StrongLy Adaptive Dynamic Learning (OCELAD), a general adaptive, online approach for learning and tracking optimal metrics as they change over time that is highly robust to a variety of nonstationary behaviors in the changing metric. We apply the OCELAD framework to an ensemble of online learners. Specifically, we create a retro-initialized composite objective mirror descent (COMID) ensemble (RICE) consisting of a set of parallel COMID learners with different learning rates, and demonstrate parameter-free RICE-OCELAD metric learning on both synthetic data and a highly nonstationary Twitter dataset. We show significant performance improvements and increased robustness to nonstationary effects relative to previously proposed batch and online distance metric learning algorithms.

Recent work in distance metric learning has focused on learning transformations of data that best align with provided sets of pairwise similarity and dissimilarity constraints. The learned transformations lead to improved retrieval, classification, and clustering algorithms due to the better adapted distance or similarity measures. Here, we introduce the problem of learning these transformations when the underlying constraint generation process is nonstationary. This nonstationarity can be due to changes in either the ground-truth clustering used to generate constraints or changes to the feature subspaces in which the class structure is apparent. We propose and evaluate COMID-SADL, an adaptive, online approach for learning and tracking optimal metrics as they change over time that is highly robust to a variety of nonstationary behaviors in the changing metric. We demonstrate COMID-SADL on both real and synthetic data sets and show significant performance improvements relative to previously proposed batch and online distance metric learning algorithms.

In this work we consider the problem of detecting anomalous spatio-temporal behavior in videos. Our approach is to learn the normative multiframe pixel joint distribution and detect deviations from it using a likelihood based approach. Due to the extreme lack of available training samples relative to the dimension of the distribution, we use a mean and covariance approach and consider methods of learning the spatio-temporal covariance in the low-sample regime. Our approach is to estimate the covariance using parameter reduction and sparse models. The first method considered is the representation of the covariance as a sum of Kronecker products as in (Greenewald et al 2013), which is found to be an accurate approximation in this setting. We propose learning algorithms relevant to our problem. We then consider the sparse multiresolution model of (Choi et al 2010) and apply the Kronecker product methods to it for further parameter reduction, as well as introducing modifications for enhanced efficiency and greater applicability to spatio-temporal covariance matrices. We apply our methods to the detection of crowd behavior anomalies in the University of Minnesota crowd anomaly dataset, and achieve competitive results.

In this paper we consider the use of the space vs. time Kronecker product decomposition in the estimation of covariance matrices for spatio-temporal data. This decomposition imposes lower dimensional structure on the estimated covariance matrix, thus reducing the number of samples required for estimation. To allow a smooth tradeoff between the reduction in the number of parameters (to reduce estimation variance) and the accuracy of the covariance approximation (affecting estimation bias), we introduce a diagonally loaded modification of the sum of kronecker products representation [1]. We derive a Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the minimum attainable mean squared predictor coefficient estimation error for unbiased estimators of Kronecker structured covariance matrices. We illustrate the accuracy of the diagonally loaded Kronecker sum decomposition by applying it to video data of human activity.