Cardinality potentials are a generally useful class of high order potential that affect probabilities based on how many of D binary variables are active. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference for cardinality potential models is well-understood, with efficient computations taking O(DlogD) time. Yet efficient marginalization and sampling have not been addressed as thoroughly in the machine learning community. We show that there exists a simple algorithm for computing marginal probabilities and drawing exact joint samples that runs in O(Dlog2 D) time, and we show how to frame the algorithm as efficient belief propagation in a low order tree-structured model that includes additional auxiliary variables. We then develop a new, more general class of models, termed Recursive Cardinality models, which take advantage of this efficiency. Finally, we show how to do efficient exact inference in models composed of a tree structure and a cardinality potential. We explore the expressive power of Recursive Cardinality models and empirically demonstrate their utility.

Based on a recent development in the area of error control coding, we introduce the notion of convolutional factor graphs (CFGs) as a new class of probabilistic graphical models. In this context, the conventional factor graphs are referred to as multiplicative factor graphs (MFGs). This paper shows that CFGs are natural models for probability functions when summation of independent latent random variables is involved. In particular, CFGs capture a large class of linear models, where the linearity is in the sense that the observed variables are obtained as a linear ransformation of the latent variables taking arbitrary distributions. We use Gaussian models and independent factor models as examples to emonstrate the use of CFGs. The requirement of a linear transformation between latent variables (with certain independence restriction) and the bserved variables, to an extent, limits the modelling flexibility of CFGs. This structural restriction however provides a powerful analytic tool to the framework of CFGs; that is, upon taking the Fourier transform of the function represented by the CFG, the resulting function is represented by a FG with identical structure. This Fourier transform duality allows inference problems on a CFG to be solved on the corresponding dual MFG.

Many tasks require finding groups of elements in a matrix of numbers, symbols or class likelihoods. One approach is to use efficient bi- or tri-linear factorization techniques including PCA, ICA, sparse matrix factorization and plaid analysis. These techniques are not appropriate when addition and multiplication of matrix elements are not sensibly defined. More directly, methods like bi-clustering can be used to classify matrix elements, but these methods make the overly-restrictive assumption that the class of each element is a function of a row class and a column class. We introduce a general computational problem, `matrix tile analysis' (MTA), which consists of decomposing a matrix into a set of non-overlapping tiles, each of which is defined by a subset of usually nonadjacent rows and columns. MTA does not require an algebra for combining tiles, but must search over discrete combinations of tile assignments. Exact MTA is a computationally intractable integer programming problem, but we describe an approximate iterative technique and a computationally efficient sum-product relaxation of the integer program. We compare the effectiveness of these methods to PCA and plaid on hundreds of randomly generated tasks. Using double-gene-knockout data, we show that MTA finds groups of interacting yeast genes that have biologically-related functions.

Exemplar-based clustering methods have been shown to produce state-of-the-art results on a number of synthetic and real-world clustering problems. They are appealing because they offer computational benefits over latent-mean models and can handle arbitrary pairwise similarity measures between data points. However, when trying to recover underlying structure in clustering problems, tailored similarity measures are often not enough; we also desire control over the distribution of cluster sizes. Priors such as Dirichlet process priors allow the number of clusters to be unspecified while expressing priors over data partitions. To our knowledge, they have not been applied to exemplar-based models. We show how to incorporate priors, including Dirichlet process priors, into the recently introduced affinity propagation algorithm. We develop an efficient maxproduct belief propagation algorithm for our new model and demonstrate experimentally how the expanded range of clustering priors allows us to better recover true clusterings in situations where we have some information about the generating process.

We introduce a new type of graphical model called a "cumulative distribution network" (CDN), which expresses a joint cumulative distribution as a product of local functions. Each local function can be viewed as providing evidence about possible orderings, or rankings, of variables. Interestingly, we find that the conditional independence properties of CDNs are quite different from other graphical models. We also describe a messagepassing algorithm that efficiently computes conditional cumulative distributions. Due to the unique independence properties of the CDN, these messages do not in general have a one-to-one correspondence with messages exchanged in standard algorithms, such as belief propagation. We demonstrate the application of CDNs for structured ranking learning using a previously-studied multi-player gaming dataset.

Affinity propagation is an exemplar-based clustering algorithm that finds a set of data-points that best exemplify the data, and associates each datapoint with one exemplar. We extend affinity propagation in a principled way to solve the hierarchical clustering problem, which arises in a variety of domains including biology, sensor networks and decision making in operational research. We derive an inference algorithm that operates by propagating information up and down the hierarchy, and is efficient despite the high-order potentials required for the graphical model formulation. We demonstrate that our method outperforms greedy techniques that cluster one layer at a time. We show that on an artificial dataset designed to mimic the HIV-strain mutation dynamics, our method outperforms related methods. For real HIV sequences, where the ground truth is not available, we show our method achieves better results, in terms of the underlying objective function, and show the results correspond meaningfully to geographical location and strain subtypes. Finally we report results on using the method for the analysis of mass spectra, showing it performs favorably compared to state-of-the-art methods.

The maximum a posteriori (MAP) configuration of binary variable models with submodular graph-structured energy functions can be found efficiently and exactly by graph cuts. Max-product belief propagation (MP) has been shown to be suboptimal on this class of energy functions by a canonical counterexample where MP converges to a suboptimal fixed point (Kulesza & Pereira, 2008). In this work, we show that under a particular scheduling and damping scheme, MP is equivalent to graph cuts, and thus optimal. We explain the apparent contradiction by showing that with proper scheduling and damping, MP always converges to an optimal fixed point. Thus, the canonical counterexample only shows the suboptimality of MP with a particular suboptimal choice of schedule and damping. With proper choices, MP is optimal.

Ranking is at the heart of many information retrieval applications. Unlike standard regression or classification, in which we predict outputs independently, in ranking, we are interested in predicting structured outputs so that misranking one object can significantly affect whether we correctly rank the other objects. In practice, the problem of ranking involves a large number of objects to be ranked and either approximate structured prediction methods are required, or assumptions of independence between object scores must be made in order to make the problem tractable. We present a probabilistic method for learning to rank using the graphical modelling framework of cumulative distribution networks (CDNs), where we can take into account the structure inherent to the problem of ranking by modelling the joint cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) over multiple pairwise preferences. We apply our framework to the problem of document retrieval in the case of the OHSUMED benchmark dataset. We will show that the RankNet, ListNet and ListMLE probabilistic models can be viewed as particular instances of CDNs and that our proposed framework allows for the exploration of a broad class of flexible structured loss functionals for ranking learning.

We introduce a new model of genetic diversity which summarizes a large input dataset into an epitome, a short sequence or a small set of short sequences of probability distributions capturing many overlapping subsequences from the dataset. The epitome as a representation has already been used in modeling real-valued signals, such as images and audio. The discrete sequence model we introduce in this paper targets applications in genetics, from multiple alignment to recombination and mutation inference. In our experiments, we concentrate on modeling the diversity of HIV where the epitome emerges as a natural model for producing relatively small vaccines covering a large number of immune system targets known as epitopes. Our experiments show that the epitome includes more epitopes than other vaccine designs of similar length, including cocktails of consensus strains, phylogenetic tree centers, and observed strains. We also discuss epitome designs that take into account uncertainty about T-cell cross reactivity and epitope presentation. In our experiments, we find that vaccine optimization is fairly robust to these uncertainties.

Clustering is a fundamental problem in machine learning and has been approached in many ways. Two general and quite different approaches include iteratively fitting a mixture model (e.g., using EM) and linking together pairs of training cases that have high affinity (e.g., using spectral methods). Pairwise clustering algorithms need not compute sufficient statistics and avoid poor solutions by directly placing similar examples in the same cluster. However, many applications require that each cluster of data be accurately described by a prototype or model, so affinity-based clustering - and its benefits - cannot be directly realized. We describe a technique called "affinity propagation", which combines the advantages of both approaches. The method learns a mixture model of the data by recursively propagating affinity messages. We demonstrate affinity propagation on the problems of clustering image patches for image segmentation and learning mixtures of gene expression models from microarray data. We find that affinity propagation obtains better solutions than mixtures of Gaussians, the K-medoids algorithm, spectral clustering and hierarchical clustering, and is both able to find a pre-specified number of clusters and is able to automatically determine the number of clusters. Interestingly, affinity propagation can be viewed as belief propagation in a graphical model that accounts for pairwise training case likelihood functions and the identification of cluster centers.