Machine learned models often must abide by certain requirements (e.g., fairness or legal). This has spurred interested in developing approaches that can provably verify whether a model satisfies certain properties. This paper introduces a generic algorithm called Veritas that enables tackling multiple different verification tasks for tree ensemble models like random forests (RFs) and gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs). This generality contrasts with previous work, which has focused exclusively on either adversarial example generation or robustness checking. Veritas formulates the verification task as a generic optimization problem and introduces a novel search space representation. Veritas offers two key advantages. First, it provides anytime lower and upper bounds when the optimization problem cannot be solved exactly. In contrast, many existing methods have focused on exact solutions and are thus limited by the verification problem being NP-complete. Second, Veritas produces full (bounded suboptimal) solutions that can be used to generate concrete examples. We experimentally show that Veritas outperforms the previous state of the art by (a) generating exact solutions more frequently, (b) producing tighter bounds when (a) is not possible, and (c) offering orders of magnitude speed ups. Subsequently, Veritas enables tackling more and larger real-world verification scenarios.

Exact lifted inference methods, like their propositional counterparts, work by recursively decomposing the model and the problem. In the propositional case, there exist formal structures, such as decomposition trees (dtrees), that represent such a decomposition and allow us to determine the complexity of inference a priori. However, there is currently no equivalent structure nor analogous complexity results for lifted inference. In this paper, we introduce FO-dtrees, which upgrade propositional dtrees to the first-order level. We show how these trees can characterize a lifted inference solution for a probabilistic logical model (in terms of a sequence of lifted operations), and make a theoretical analysis of the complexity of lifted inference in terms of the novel notion of lifted width for the tree.

Analysis of runner's data will often examine gait variables with reference to one or more gait events. Two such representative events are the initial contact and toe off events. These correspond respectively to the moments in time when the foot makes the initial contact with the ground and when the foot leaves the ground again. These variables are traditionally measured with a force plate or motion capture system in a lab setting. However, thanks to recent evolutions in wearable technology, the use of accelerometers has become commonplace for prolonged outdoor measurements. Previous research has developed heuristic methods to identify the initial contact and toe off timings based on minima, maxima and thresholds in the acceleration profiles. A significant flaw of these heuristic-based methods is that they are tailored to very specific acceleration profiles, providing no guidelines on how to handle deviant profiles. Therefore, we frame the problem as a structured prediction task and propose a machine learning approach for determining initial foot contact and toe off events from 3D tibial acceleration profiles. With mean absolute errors of 2 ms and 4 ms for respectively the initial contact and toe-off events, our method significantly outperforms the existing heuristic approaches.

Propositionalization is the process of summarizing relational data into a tabular (attribute-value) format. The resulting table can next be used by any propositional learner. This approach makes it possible to apply a wide variety of learning methods to relational data. However, the transformation from relational to propositional format is generally not lossless: different relational structures may be mapped onto the same feature vector. At the same time, features may be introduced that are not needed for the learning task at hand. In general, it is hard to define a feature space that contains all and only those features that are needed for the learning task. This paper presents LazyBum, a system that can be considered a lazy version of the recently proposed OneBM method for propositionalization. LazyBum interleaves OneBM's feature construction method with a decision tree learner. This learner both uses and guides the propositionalization process. It indicates when and where to look for new features. This approach is similar to what has elsewhere been called dynamic propositionalization. In an experimental comparison with the original OneBM and with two other recently proposed propositionalization methods (nFOIL and MODL, which respectively perform dynamic and static propositionalization), LazyBum achieves a comparable accuracy with a lower execution time on most of the datasets.

In-game win probability is a statistical metric that provides a sports team's likelihood of winning at any given point in a game, based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation. In-game win-probability models have been extensively studied in baseball, basketball and American football. These models serve as a tool to enhance the fan experience, evaluate in game-decision making and measure the risk-reward balance for coaching decisions. In contrast, they have received less attention in association football, because its low-scoring nature makes it far more challenging to analyze. In this paper, we build an in-game win probability model for football. Specifically, we first show that porting existing approaches, both in terms of the predictive models employed and the features considered, does not yield good in-game win-probability estimates for football. Second, we introduce our own Bayesian statistical model that utilizes a set of eight variables to predict the running win, tie and loss probabilities for the home team. We train our model using event data from the last four seasons of the major European football competitions. Our results indicate that our model provides well-calibrated probabilities. Finally, we elaborate on two use cases for our win probability metric: enhancing the fan experience and evaluating performance in crucial situations.

Learning from positive and unlabeled data or PU learning is the setting where a learner only has access to positive examples and unlabeled data. The assumption is that the unlabeled data can contain both positive and negative examples. This setting has attracted increasing interest within the machine learning literature as this type of data naturally arises in applications such as medical diagnosis and knowledge base completion. This article provides a survey of the current state of the art in PU learning. It proposes seven key research questions that commonly arise in this field and provides a broad overview of how the field has tried to address them.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be enabled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

For many interesting tasks, such as medical diagnosis and web page classification, a learner only has access to some positively labeled examples and many unlabeled examples. Learning from this type of data requires making assumptions about the true distribution of the classes and/or the mechanism that was used to select the positive examples to be labeled. The commonly made assumptions, separability of the classes and positive examples being selected completely at random, are very strong. This paper proposes a weaker assumption that assumes the positive examples to be selected at random, conditioned on some of the attributes. To learn under this assumption, an EM method is proposed. Experiments show that our method is not only very capable of learning under this assumption, but it also outperforms the state of the art for learning under the selected completely at random assumption.

We consider the problem of predicting plausible missing facts in relational data, given a set of imperfect logical rules. In particular, our aim is to provide bounds on the (expected) number of incorrect inferences that are made in this way. Since for classical inference it is in general impossible to bound this number in a non-trivial way, we consider two inference relations that weaken, but remain close in spirit to classical inference.

In the propositional setting, the marginal problem is to find a (maximum-entropy) distribution that has some given marginals. We study this problem in a relational setting and make the following contributions. First, we compare two different notions of relational marginals. Second, we show a duality between the resulting relational marginal problems and the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of relational models, which generalizes a well-known duality from the propositional setting. Third, by exploiting the relational marginal formulation, we present a statistically sound method to learn the parameters of relational models that will be applied in settings where the number of constants differs between the training and test data. Furthermore, based on a relational generalization of marginal polytopes, we characterize cases where the standard estimators based on feature's number of true groundings needs to be adjusted and we quantitatively characterize the consequences of these adjustments. Fourth, we prove bounds on expected errors of the estimated parameters, which allows us to lower-bound, among other things, the effective sample size of relational training data.