Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many empirical sciences. Traditional score-based casual discovery methods rely on various local heuristics to search for a directly acyclic graph (DAG) according to a predefined score function. While these methods, e.g., greedy equivalence search (GES), may have attractive results with infinite samples and certain model assumptions, they are less satisfactory in practice due to finite data and possible violation of assumptions. Motivated by recent advances in neural combinatorial optimization, we propose to use reinforcement learning (RL) to search for the DAG with the best scoring. Our encoder-decoder model takes observable data as input and generates graph adjacency matrices that are used to compute corresponding rewards. The reward incorporates both the predefined score function and two penalty terms for enforcing acyclicity. In contrast with typical RL applications where the goal is to learn a policy, we use RL as a search strategy and our final output would be the graph, among all graphs generated during training, that achieves the best reward. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real data, and show that the proposed approach not only has an improved search ability but also allows for a flexible score function under the acyclicity constraint.

The inference of the causal relationship between a pair of observed variables is a fundamental problem in science, and most existing approaches are based on one single causal model. In practice, however, observations are often collected from multiple sources with heterogeneous causal models due to certain uncontrollable factors, which renders causal analysis results obtained by a single model skeptical. In this paper, we generalize the Additive Noise Model (ANM) to a mixture model, which consists of a finite number of ANMs, and provide the condition of its causal identifiability. To conduct model estimation, we propose Gaussian Process Partially Observable Model (GPPOM), and incorporate independence enforcement into it to learn latent parameter associated with each observation. Causal inference and clustering according to the underlying generating mechanisms of the mixture model are addressed in this work. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

The inference of the causal relationship between a pair of observed variables is a fundamental problem in science, and most existing approaches are based on one single causal model. In practice, however, observations are often collected from multiple sources with heterogeneous causal models due to certain uncontrollable factors, which renders causal analysis results obtained by a single model skeptical. In this paper, we generalize the Additive Noise Model (ANM) to a mixture model, which consists of a finite number of ANMs, and provide the condition of its causal identifiability. To conduct model estimation, we propose Gaussian Process Partially Observable Model (GPPOM), and incorporate independence enforcement into it to learn latent parameter associated with each observation. Causal inference and clustering according to the underlying generating mechanisms of the mixture model are addressed in this work. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Cellular network configuration plays a critical role in network performance. In current practice, network configuration depends heavily on field experience of engineers and often remains static for a long period of time. This practice is far from optimal. To address this limitation, online-learning-based approaches have great potentials to automate and optimize network configuration. Learning-based approaches face the challenges of learning a highly complex function for each base station and balancing the fundamental exploration-exploitation tradeoff while minimizing the exploration cost. Fortunately, in cellular networks, base stations (BSs) often have similarities even though they are not identical. To leverage such similarities, we propose kernel-based multi-BS contextual bandit algorithm based on multi-task learning. In the algorithm, we leverage the similarity among different BSs defined by conditional kernel embedding. We present theoretical analysis of the proposed algorithm in terms of regret and multi-task-learning efficiency. We evaluate the effectiveness of our algorithm based on a simulator built by real traces.

The inference of the causal relationship between a pair of observed variables is a fundamental problem in science, and most existing approaches are based on one single causal model. In practice, however, observations are often collected from multiple sources with heterogeneous causal models due to certain uncontrollable factors, which renders causal analysis results obtained by a single model skeptical. In this paper, we generalize the Additive Noise Model (ANM) to a mixture model, which consists of a finite number of ANMs, and provide the condition of its causal identifiability. To conduct model estimation, we propose Gaussian Process Partially Observable Model (GPPOM), and incorporate independence enforcement into it to learn latent parameter associated with each observation. Causal inference and clustering according to the underlying generating mechanisms of the mixture model are addressed in this work. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Although nonstationary data are more common in the real world, most existing causal discovery methods do not take nonstationarity into consideration. In this letter, we propose a kernel embedding-based approach, ENCI, for nonstationary causal model inference where data are collected from multiple domains with varying distributions. In ENCI, we transform the complicated relation of a cause-effect pair into a linear model of variables of which observations correspond to the kernel embeddings of the cause-and-effect distributions in different domains. In this way, we are able to estimate the causal direction by exploiting the causal asymmetry of the transformed linear model. Furthermore, we extend ENCI to causal graph discovery for multiple variables by transforming the relations among them into a linear nongaussian acyclic model. We show that by exploiting the nonstationarity of distributions, both cause-effect pairs and two kinds of causal graphs are identifiable under mild conditions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data are conducted to justify the efficacy of ENCI over major existing methods.

Exogenous state variables and rewards can slow down reinforcement learning by injecting uncontrolled variation into the reward signal. We formalize exogenous state variables and rewards and identify conditions under which an MDP with exogenous state can be decomposed into an exogenous Markov Reward Process involving only the exogenous state+reward and an endogenous Markov Decision Process defined with respect to only the endogenous rewards. We also derive a variance-covariance condition under which Monte Carlo policy evaluation on the endogenous MDP is accelerated compared to using the full MDP. Similar speedups are likely to carry over to all RL algorithms. We develop two algorithms for discovering the exogenous variables and test them on several MDPs. Results show that the algorithms are practical and can significantly speed up reinforcement learning.

Given two sets of independent samples from unknown distributions $P$ and $Q$, a two-sample test decides whether to reject the null hypothesis that $P=Q$. Recent attention has focused on kernel two-sample tests as the test statistics are easy to compute, converge fast, and have low bias with their finite sample estimates. However, there still lacks an exact characterization on the asymptotic performance of such tests, and in particular, the rate at which the type-II error probability decays to zero in the large sample limit. In this work, we show that a class of kernel two-sample tests are exponentially consistent on Polish, locally compact Hausdorff space, e.g., $\mathbb R^d$. The obtained exponential decay rate is further shown to be optimal among all two-sample tests meeting the given level constraint, and is independent of particular kernels provided that they are bounded continuous and characteristic. Key to our approach are an extended version of Sanov's theorem and a recent result that identifies the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as a metric of weak convergence of probability measures.

We characterize the asymptotic performance of nonparametric goodness of fit testing, otherwise known as the universal hypothesis testing that dates back to Hoeffding (1965). The exponential decay rate of the type-II error probability is used as the asymptotic performance metric, hence an optimal test achieves the maximum decay rate subject to a constant level constraint on the type-I error probability. We show that two classes of Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) based tests attain this optimality on $\mathbb R^d$, while a Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD) based test achieves a weaker one under this criterion. In the finite sample regime, these tests have similar statistical performance in our experiments, while the KSD based test is more computationally efficient. Key to our approach are Sanov's theorem from large deviation theory and recent results on the weak convergence properties of the MMD and KSD.

In conventional causal discovery, structural equation models (SEM) are directly applied to the observed variables, meaning that the causal effect can be represented as a function of the direct causes themselves. However, in many real world problems, there are significant dependencies in the variances or energies, which indicates that causality may possibly take place at the level of variances or energies. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic causal scale-mixture model with spatiotemporal variance dependencies to represent a specific type of generating mechanism of the observations. In particular, the causal mechanism including contemporaneous and temporal causal relations in variances or energies is represented by a Structural Vector AutoRegressive model (SVAR). We prove the identifiability of this model under the non-Gaussian assumption on the innovation processes. We also propose algorithms to estimate the involved parameters and discover the contemporaneous causal structure. Experiments on synthesis and real world data are conducted to show the applicability of the proposed model and algorithms.