This paper focuses on the problem of computing an ǫ-optimal policy in a discounted Markov Decision Process (MDP) provided that we can access the reward and transition function through a generative model. We propose an algorithm that is initially agnostic to the MDP but that can leverage the specific MDP structure, expressed in terms of variances of the rewards and next-state value function, and gaps in the optimal action-value function to reduce the sample complexity needed to find a good policy, precisely highlighting the contribution of each state-action pair to the final sample complexity. A key feature of our analysis is that it removes all horizon dependencies in the sample complexity of suboptimal actions except for the intrinsic scaling of the value function and a constant additive term.

Evaluating a policy by deploying it in the real world can be risky and costly. Off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) algorithms use historical data collected from running a previous policy to evaluate a new policy, which provides a means for evaluating a policy without requiring it to ever be deployed. Importance sampling is a popular OPE method because it is robust to partial observability and works with continuous states and actions. However, the amount of historical data required by importance sampling can scale exponentially with the horizon of the problem: the number of sequential decisions that are made. We propose using policies over temporally extended actions, called options, and show that combining these policies with importance sampling can significantly improve performance for long-horizon problems. In addition, we can take advantage of special cases that arise due to options-based policies to further improve the performance of importance sampling. We further generalize these special cases to a general covariance testing rule that can be used to decide which weights to drop in an IS estimate, and derive a new IS algorithm called Incremental Importance Sampling that can provide significantly more accurate estimates for a broad class of domains.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We study linear approximate value iteration (LAVI) with a generative model. While linear models may accurately represent the optimal value function using a few parameters, several empirical and theoretical studies show the combination of leastsquares projection with the Bellman operator may be expansive, thus leading LAVI to amplify errors over iterations and eventually diverge. We introduce an algorithm that approximates value functions by combining Q-values estimated at a set of anchor states. Our algorithm tries to balance the generalization and compactness of linear methods with the small amplification of errors typical of interpolation methods. We prove that if the features at any state can be represented as a convex combination of features at the anchor points, then errors are propagated linearly over iterations (instead of exponentially) and our method achieves a polynomial sample complexity bound in the horizon and the number of anchor points. These findings are confirmed in preliminary simulations in a number of simple problems where a traditional least-square LAVI method diverges.

We study linear approximate value iteration (LAVI) with a generative model. While linear models may accurately represent the optimal value function using a few parameters, several empirical and theoretical studies show the combination of leastsquares projection with the Bellman operator may be expansive, thus leading LAVI to amplify errors over iterations and eventually diverge. We introduce an algorithm that approximates value functions by combining Q-values estimated at a set of anchor states. Our algorithm tries to balance the generalization and compactness of linear methods with the small amplification of errors typical of interpolation methods. We prove that if the features at any state can be represented as a convex combination of features at the anchor points, then errors are propagated linearly over iterations (instead of exponentially) and our method achieves a polynomial sample complexity bound in the horizon and the number of anchor points. These findings are confirmed in preliminary simulations in a number of simple problems where a traditional least-square LAVI method diverges.

Statistical performance bounds for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can be critical for high-stakes applications like healthcare. This paper introduces a new framework for theoretically measuring the performance of such algorithms called Uniform-PAC, which is a strengthening of the classical Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) framework. In contrast to the PAC framework, the uniform version may be used to derive high probability regret guarantees and so forms a bridge between the two setups that has been missing in the literature. We demonstrate the benefits of the new framework for finite-state episodic MDPs with a new algorithm that is Uniform-PAC and simultaneously achieves optimal regret and PAC guarantees except for a factor of the horizon.

Learning from prior tasks and transferring that experience to improve future performance is critical for building lifelong learning agents. Although results in supervised and reinforcement learning show that transfer may significantly improve the learning performance, most of the literature on transfer is focused on batch learning tasks. In this paper we study the problem of sequential transfer in online learning, notably in the multi-armed bandit framework, where the objective is to minimize the total regret over a sequence of tasks by transferring knowledge from prior tasks. We introduce a novel bandit algorithm based on a method-of-moments approach for estimating the possible tasks and derive regret bounds for it.

Evaluating a policy by deploying it in the real world can be risky and costly. Off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) algorithms use historical data collected from running a previous policy to evaluate a new policy, which provides a means for evaluating a policy without requiring it to ever be deployed. Importance sampling is a popular OPE method because it is robust to partial observability and works with continuous states and actions. However, the amount of historical data required by importance sampling can scale exponentially with the horizon of the problem: the number of sequential decisions that are made. We propose using policies over temporally extended actions, called options, and show that combining these policies with importance sampling can significantly improve performance for long-horizon problems. In addition, we can take advantage of special cases that arise due to options-based policies to further improve the performance of importance sampling. We further generalize these special cases to a general covariance testing rule that can be used to decide which weights to drop in an IS estimate, and derive a new IS algorithm called Incremental Importance Sampling that can provide significantly more accurate estimates for a broad class of domains.