This paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning (RL) architecture, called Value Prediction Network (VPN), which integrates model-free and model-based RL methods into a single neural network. In contrast to typical model-based RL methods, VPN learns a dynamics model whose abstract states are trained to make option-conditional predictions of future values (discounted sum of rewards) rather than of future observations. Our experimental results show that VPN has several advantages over both model-free and model-based baselines in a stochastic environment where careful planning is required but building an accurate observation-prediction model is difficult. Furthermore, VPN outperforms Deep Q-Network (DQN) on several Atari games even with short-lookahead planning, demonstrating its potential as a new way of learning a good state representation.

Existing strategies for finite-armed stochastic bandits mostly depend on a parameter of scale that must be known in advance. Sometimes this is in the form of a bound on the payoffs, or the knowledge of a variance or subgaussian parameter. The notable exceptions are the analysis of Gaussian bandits with unknown mean and variance by Cowan and Katehakis [2015a] and of uniform distributions with unknown support [Cowan and Katehakis, 2015b]. The results derived in these specialised cases are generalised here to the non-parametric setup, where the learner knows only a bound on the kurtosis of the noise, which is a scale free measure of the extremity of outliers.

As datasets grow richer, an important challenge is to leverage the full features in the data to maximize the number of useful discoveries while controlling for false positives. We address this problem in the context of multiple hypotheses testing, where for each hypothesis, we observe a p-value along with a set of features specific to that hypothesis. For example, in genetic association studies, each hypothesis tests the correlation between a variant and the trait. We have a rich set of features for each variant (e.g. its location, conservation, epigenetics etc.) which could inform how likely the variant is to have a true association. However popular testing approaches, such as Benjamini-Hochberg's procedure (BH) and independent hypothesis weighting (IHW), either ignore these features or assume that the features are categorical. We propose a new algorithm, NeuralFDR, which automatically learns a discovery threshold as a function of all the hypothesis features. We parametrize the discovery threshold as a neural network, which enables flexible handling of multi-dimensional discrete and continuous features as well as efficient end-to-end optimization. We prove that NeuralFDR has strong false discovery rate (FDR) guarantees, and show that it makes substantially more discoveries in synthetic and real datasets. Moreover, we demonstrate that the learned discovery threshold is directly interpretable.

Adversarial training has proved to be competitive against supervised learning methods on computer vision tasks. However, studies have mainly been confined to generative tasks such as image synthesis. In this paper, we apply adversarial training techniques to the discriminative task of learning a steganographic algorithm. Steganography is a collection of techniques for concealing the existence of information by embedding it within a non-secret medium, such as cover texts or images. We show that adversarial training can produce robust steganographic techniques: our unsupervised training scheme produces a steganographic algorithm that competes with state-of-the-art steganographic techniques. We also show that supervised training of our adversarial model produces a robust steganalyzer, which performs the discriminative task of deciding if an image contains secret information. We define a game between three parties, Alice, Bob and Eve, in order to simultaneously train both a steganographic algorithm and a steganalyzer. Alice and Bob attempt to communicate a secret message contained within an image, while Eve eavesdrops on their conversation and attempts to determine if secret information is embedded within the image. We represent Alice, Bob and Eve by neural networks, and validate our scheme on two independent image datasets, showing our novel method of studying steganographic problems is surprisingly competitive against established steganographic techniques.

Non-parametric multivariate density estimation faces strong statistical and computational bottlenecks, and the more practical approaches impose near-parametric assumptions on the form of the density functions. In this paper, we leverage recent developments to propose a class of non-parametric models which have very attractive computational and statistical properties. Our approach relies on the simple function space assumption that the conditional distribution of each variable conditioned on the other variables has a non-parametric exponential family form.

We propose a Bayesian regression method that accounts for multi-way interactions of arbitrary orders among the predictor variables. Our model makes use of a factorization mechanism for representing the regression coefficients of interactions among the predictors, while the interaction selection is guided by a prior distribution on random hypergraphs, a construction which generalizes the Finite Feature Model. We present a posterior inference algorithm based on Gibbs sampling, and establish posterior consistency of our regression model. Our method is evaluated with extensive experiments on simulated data and demonstrated to be able to identify meaningful interactions in applications in genetics and retail demand forecasting.

Extrapolation methods use the last few iterates of an optimization algorithm to produce a better estimate of the optimum. They were shown to achieve optimal convergence rates in a deterministic setting using simple gradient iterates. Here, we study extrapolation methods in a stochastic setting, where the iterates are produced by either a simple or an accelerated stochastic gradient algorithm. We first derive convergence bounds for arbitrary, potentially biased perturbations, then produce asymptotic bounds using the ratio between the variance of the noise and the accuracy of the current point. Finally, we apply this acceleration technique to stochastic algorithms such as SGD, SAGA, SVRG and Katyusha in different settings, and show significant performance gains.

We introduce an online active exploration algorithm for data-efficiently learning an abstract symbolic model of an environment. Our algorithm is divided into two parts: the first part quickly generates an intermediate Bayesian symbolic model from the data that the agent has collected so far, which the agent can then use along with the second part to guide its future exploration towards regions of the state space that the model is uncertain about. We show that our algorithm outperforms random and greedy exploration policies on two different computer game domains. The first domain is an Asteroids-inspired game with complex dynamics but basic logical structure. The second is the Treasure Game, with simpler dynamics but more complex logical structure.

Neural networks have a smooth initial inductive bias, such that small changes in input do not lead to large changes in output. However, in reinforcement learning domains with sparse rewards, value functions have non-smooth structure with a characteristic asymmetric discontinuity whenever rewards arrive. We propose a mechanism that learns an interpolation between a direct value estimate and a projected value estimate computed from the encountered reward and the previous estimate. This reduces the need to learn about discontinuities, and thus improves the value function approximation. Furthermore, as the interpolation is learned and state-dependent, our method can deal with heterogeneous observability. We demonstrate that this one change leads to significant improvements on multiple Atari games, when applied to the state-of-the-art A3C algorithm.

This paper presents a probabilistic-graphical model that can be used to infer characteristics of instantaneous brain activity by jointly analyzing spatial and temporal dependencies observed in electroencephalograms (EEG). Specifically, we describe a factor-graph-based model with customized factor-functions defined based on domain knowledge, to infer pathologic brain activity with the goal of identifying seizure-generating brain regions in epilepsy patients. We utilize an inference technique based on the graph-cut algorithm to exactly solve graph inference in polynomial time. We validate the model by using clinically collected intracranial EEG data from 29 epilepsy patients to show that the model correctly identifies seizure-generating brain regions. Our results indicate that our model outperforms two conventional approaches used for seizure-onset localization (5-7% better AUC: 0.72, 0.67, 0.65) and that the proposed inference technique provides 3-10% gain in AUC (0.72, 0.62, 0.69) compared to sampling-based alternatives.