A fundamental goal in network neuroscience is to understand how activity in one brain region drives activity elsewhere, a process referred to as effective connectivity. Here we propose to model this causal interaction using integro-differential equations and causal kernels that allow for a rich analysis of effective connectivity. The approach combines the tractability and flexibility of autoregressive modeling with the biophysical interpretability of dynamic causal modeling. The causal kernels are learned nonparametrically using Gaussian process regression, yielding an efficient framework for causal inference. We construct a novel class of causal covariance functions that enforce the desired properties of the causal kernels, an approach which we call GP CaKe. By construction, the model and its hyperparameters have biophysical meaning and are therefore easily interpretable. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP CaKe on a number of simulations and give an example of a realistic application on magnetoencephalography (MEG) data.

Cognitive neuroscience is enjoying rapid increase in extensive public brain-imaging datasets. It opens the door to large-scale statistical models. Finding a unified perspective for all available data calls for scalable and automated solutions to an old challenge: how to aggregate heterogeneous information on brain function into a universal cognitive system that relates mental operations/cognitive processes/psychological tasks to brain networks? We cast this challenge in a machine-learning approach to predict conditions from statistical brain maps across different studies. For this, we leverage multi-task learning and multi-scale dimension reduction to learn low-dimensional representations of brain images that carry cognitive information and can be robustly associated with psychological stimuli. Our multi-dataset classification model achieves the best prediction performance on several large reference datasets, compared to models without cognitive-aware low-dimension representations; it brings a substantial performance boost to the analysis of small datasets, and can be introspected to identify universal template cognitive concepts.

After AI Pro and Ultra subscribers first got to first try the feature, now anyone in the US can enable it. Gemini's Personal Intelligence feature is now rolling out to more users in the US. At the start of the year, Google introduced Personal Intelligence, a Gemini feature that allows the chatbot to pull information from the user's other Google apps and services to generate personalized responses. After making the feature first available to Google AI Pro and Ultra subscribers, the company is expanding availability to more users in the US. Google is kicking off the expansion with AI Mode.

Designing optimal treatment plans for patients with comorbidities requires accurate cause-specific mortality prognosis. Motivated by the recent availability of linked electronic health records, we develop a nonparametric Bayesian model for survival analysis with competing risks, which can be used for jointly assessing a patient's risk of multiple (competing) adverse outcomes. The model views a patient's survival times with respect to the competing risks as the outputs of a deep multi-task Gaussian process (DMGP), the inputs to which are the patients' covariates. Unlike parametric survival analysis methods based on Cox and Weibull models, our model uses DMGPs to capture complex non-linear interactions between the patients' covariates and cause-specific survival times, thereby learning flexible patient-specific and cause-specific survival curves, all in a data-driven fashion without explicit parametric assumptions on the hazard rates. We propose a variational inference algorithm that is capable of learning the model parameters from time-to-event data while handling right censoring. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art survival models.

We study minimax strategies for the online prediction problem with expert advice. It has been conjectured that a simple adversary strategy, called COMB, is near optimal in this game for any number of experts. Our results and new insights make progress in this direction by showing that, up to a small additive term, COMB is minimax optimal in the finite-time three expert problem. In addition, we provide for this setting a new near minimax optimal COMB-based learner. Prior to this work, in this problem, learners obtaining the optimal multiplicative constant in their regret rate were known only when $K=2$ or $K\rightarrow\infty$. We characterize, when $K=3$, the regret of the game scaling as $\sqrt{8/(9\pi)T}\pm \log(T)^2$ which gives for the first time the optimal constant in the leading ($\sqrt{T}$) term of the regret.

We study online learning with the general notion of transductive regret, that is regret with modification rules applying to expert sequences (as opposed to single experts) that are representable by weighted finite-state transducers. We show how transductive regret generalizes existing notions of regret, including: (1) external regret; (2) internal regret; (3) swap regret; and (4) conditional swap regret. We present a general and efficient online learning algorithm for minimizing transductive regret. We further extend that to design efficient algorithms for the time-selection and sleeping expert settings. A by-product of our study is an algorithm for swap regret, which, under mild assumptions, is more efficient than existing ones, and a substantially more efficient algorithm for time selection swap regret.

Maybe not everything needs to be AI yassified? You can sum up the gamer response to NVIDIA's DLSS 5 announcement with the ever-relevant meme: Everyone disliked that. Across social media and Reddit last night, I couldn't find anyone who's genuinely positive about the potential for DLSS 5, which uses AI to add photorealistic lighting and materials to in-game models and environments. It's not unusual to see gamers being reflexively angry about new technology on the internet, especially when it's being pitched by NVIDIA as the "biggest breakthrough in computer graphics" since its RTX 20-series GPUs arrived in 2018 with real-time ray tracing. There was plenty of suspicion around DLSS's original AI upscaling model, as well as the fake frames generated by later iterations.

We consider the analysis of Electroencephalography (EEG) and Local Field Potential (LFP) datasets, which are "big" in terms of the size of recorded data but rarely have sufficient labels required to train complex models (e.g., conventional deep learning methods). Furthermore, in many scientific applications, the goal is to be able to understand the underlying features related to the classification, which prohibits the blind application of deep networks. This motivates the development of a new model based on {\em parameterized} convolutional filters guided by previous neuroscience research; the filters learn relevant frequency bands while targeting synchrony, which are frequency-specific power and phase correlations between electrodes.

The increasing size and complexity of scientific data could dramatically enhance discovery and prediction for basic scientific applications, e.g., neuroscience, genetics, systems biology, etc. Realizing this potential, however, requires novel statistical analysis methods that are both interpretable and predictive. We introduce the Union of Intersections (UoI) method, a flexible, modular, and scalable framework for enhanced model selection and estimation. The method performs model selection and model estimation through intersection and union operations, respectively. We show that UoI can satisfy the bi-criteria of low-variance and nearly unbiased estimation of a small number of interpretable features, while maintaining high-quality prediction accuracy. We perform extensive numerical investigation to evaluate a UoI algorithm ($UoI_{Lasso}$) on synthetic and real data. In doing so, we demonstrate the extraction of interpretable functional networks from human electrophysiology recordings as well as the accurate prediction of phenotypes from genotype-phenotype data with reduced features. We also show (with the $UoI_{L1Logistic}$ and $UoI_{CUR}$ variants of the basic framework) improved prediction parsimony for classification and matrix factorization on several benchmark biomedical data sets. These results suggest that methods based on UoI framework could improve interpretation and prediction in data-driven discovery across scientific fields.

Multi-agent predictive modeling is an essential step for understanding physical, social and team-play systems. Recently, Interaction Networks (INs) were proposed for the task of modeling multi-agent physical systems. One of the drawbacks of INs is scaling with the number of interactions in the system (typically quadratic or higher order in the number of agents). In this paper we introduce VAIN, a novel attentional architecture for multi-agent predictive modeling that scales linearly with the number of agents. We show that VAIN is effective for multi-agent predictive modeling. Our method is evaluated on tasks from challenging multi-agent prediction domains: chess and soccer, and outperforms competing multi-agent approaches.