We show how to estimate a model's test error from unlabeled data, on distributions very different from the training distribution, while assuming only that certain conditional independencies are preserved between train and test. We do not need to assume that the optimal predictor is the same between train and test, or that the true distribution lies in any parametric family. We can also efficiently compute gradients of the estimated error and hence perform unsupervised discriminative learning. Our technical tool is the method of moments, which allows us to exploit conditional independencies in the absence of a fully-specified model. Our framework encompasses a large family of losses including the log and exponential loss, and extends to structured output settings such as conditional random fields.

We introduce the Forget-me-not Process, an efficient, non-parametric meta-algorithm for online probabilistic sequence prediction for piecewise stationary, repeating sources. Our method works by taking a Bayesian approach to partition a stream of data into postulated task-specific segments, while simultaneously building a model for each task. We provide regret guarantees with respect to piecewise stationary data sources under the logarithmic loss, and validate the method empirically across a range of sequence prediction and task identification problems.

Commonly used in many applications, robust PCA represents an algorithmic attempt to reduce the sensitivity of classical PCA to outliers. The basic idea is to learn a decomposition of some data matrix of interest into low rank and sparse components, the latter representing unwanted outliers. Although the resulting problem is typically NP-hard, convex relaxations provide a computationally-expedient alternative with theoretical support. However, in practical regimes performance guarantees break down and a variety of non-convex alternatives, including Bayesian-inspired models, have been proposed to boost estimation quality. Unfortunately though, without additional a priori knowledge none of these methods can significantly expand the critical operational range such that exact principal subspace recovery is possible. Into this mix we propose a novel pseudo-Bayesian algorithm that explicitly compensates for design weaknesses in many existing non-convex approaches leading to state-of-the-art performance with a sound analytical foundation.

Although text-to-image generation is rapidly advancing, these AI models are mostly English-centric. Researchers at the University of Amsterdam Faculty of Science have created NeoBabel, an AI image generator that can work in six different languages. By making all elements of their research open source, anyone can build on the model and help push inclusive AI research. When you generate an image with AI, the results are often better when your prompt is in English. This is because many AI models are English at their core: if you use another language, your prompt is translated into English before the image is created.

We propose a novel approach to reduce the computational cost of evaluation of convolutional neural networks, a factor that has hindered their deployment in low-power devices such as mobile phones. Inspired by the loop perforation technique from source code optimization, we speed up the bottleneck convolutional layers by skipping their evaluation in some of the spatial positions. We propose and analyze several strategies of choosing these positions. We demonstrate that perforation can accelerate modern convolutional networks such as AlexNet and VGG-16 by a factor of 2x - 4x. Additionally, we show that perforation is complementary to the recently proposed acceleration method of Zhang et al.

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is a fundamental technique in time series analysis for comparing one curve to another using a flexible time-warping function. However, it was designed to compare a single pair of curves. In many applications, such as in metabolomics and image series analysis, alignment is simultaneously needed for multiple pairs. Because the underlying warping functions are often related, independent application of DTW to each pair is a sub-optimal solution. Yet, it is largely unknown how to efficiently conduct a joint alignment with all warping functions simultaneously considered, since any given warping function is constrained by the others and dynamic programming cannot be applied.

This paper proposes an adaptive neural-compilation framework to address the problem of learning efficient program. Traditional code optimisation strategies used in compilers are based on applying pre-specified set of transformations that make the code faster to execute without changing its semantics. In contrast, our work involves adapting programs to make them more efficient while considering correctness only on a target input distribution. Our approach is inspired by the recent works on differentiable representations of programs. We show that it is possible to compile programs written in a low-level language to a differentiable representation. We also show how programs in this representation can be optimised to make them efficient on a target distribution of inputs. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach enables learning specifically-tuned algorithms for given data distributions with a high success rate.

We study the problem of minimising regret in two-armed bandit problems with Gaussian rewards. Our objective is to use this simple setting to illustrate that strategies based on an exploration phase (up to a stopping time) followed by exploitation are necessarily suboptimal. The results hold regardless of whether or not the difference in means between the two arms is known. Besides the main message, we also refine existing deviation inequalities, which allow us to design fully sequential strategies with finite-time regret guarantees that are (a) asymptotically optimal as the horizon grows and (b) order-optimal in the minimax sense. Furthermore we provide empirical evidence that the theory also holds in practice and discuss extensions to non-gaussian and multiple-armed case.

Given a matrix of observed data, Principal Components Analysis (PCA) computes a small number of orthogonal directions that contain most of its variability. Provably accurate solutions for PCA have been in use for a long time. However, to the best of our knowledge, all existing theoretical guarantees for it assume that the data and the corrupting noise are mutually independent, or at least uncorrelated. This is valid in practice often, but not always. In this paper, we study the PCA problem in the setting where the data and noise can be correlated. Such noise is often also referred to as ``data-dependent noise. We obtain a correctness result for the standard eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) based solution to PCA under simple assumptions on the data-noise correlation. We also develop and analyze a generalization of EVD, cluster-EVD, that improves upon EVD in certain regimes.

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates. As opposed to many other methods in survival analysis, our framework does not impose unnecessary constraints in the hazard rate or in the survival function. Furthermore, our model handles left, right and interval censoring mechanisms common in survival analysis. We propose a MCMC algorithm to perform inference and an approximation scheme based on random Fourier features to make computations faster. We report experimental results on synthetic and real data, showing that our model performs better than competing models such as Cox proportional hazards, ANOVA-DDP and random survival forests.