Government
Towards Effective Planning Strategies for Dynamic Opinion Networks
In this study, we investigate the under-explored intervention planning aimed at disseminating accurate information within dynamic opinion networks by leveraging learning strategies. Intervention planning involves identifying key nodes (search) and exerting control (e.g., disseminating accurate/official information through the nodes) to mitigate the influence of misinformation. However, as the network size increases, the problem becomes computationally intractable. To address this, we first introduce a ranking algorithm to identify key nodes for disseminating accurate information, which facilitates the training of neural network (NN) classifiers that provide generalized solutions for the search and planning problems. Second, we mitigate the complexity of label generation--which becomes challenging as the network grows--by developing a reinforcement learning (RL)-based centralized dynamic planning framework.
Aligning LLM Agents by Learning Latent Preference from User Edits
We study interactive learning of LLM-based language agents based on user edits made to the agent's output. In a typical setting such as writing assistants, the user interacts with a language agent to generate a response given a context, and may optionally edit the agent response to personalize it based on their latent preference, in addition to improving the correctness. The edit feedback is naturally generated, making it a suitable candidate for improving the agent's alignment with the user's preference, and for reducing the cost of user edits over time. We propose a learning framework, PRELUDE that infers a description of the user's latent preference based on historic edit data. The inferred user preference descriptions are used to define prompts for generating responses in the future.
Introducing Spectral Attention for Long-Range Dependency in Time Series Forecasting Dongjun Lee 1 HyunGi Kim 2 DoHyun Chung
Sequence modeling faces challenges in capturing long-range dependencies across diverse tasks. Recent linear and transformer-based forecasters have shown superior performance in time series forecasting. However, they are constrained by their inherent inability to effectively address long-range dependencies in time series data, primarily due to using fixed-size inputs for prediction. Furthermore, they typically sacrifice essential temporal correlation among consecutive training samples by shuffling them into mini-batches. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a fast and effective Spectral Attention mechanism, which preserves temporal correlations among samples and facilitates the handling of long-range information while maintaining the base model structure. Spectral Attention preserves longperiod trends through a low-pass filter and facilitates gradient to flow between samples. Spectral Attention can be seamlessly integrated into most sequence models, allowing models with fixed-sized look-back windows to capture longrange dependencies over thousands of steps. Through extensive experiments on 11 real-world time series datasets using 7 recent forecasting models, we consistently demonstrate the efficacy of our Spectral Attention mechanism, achieving state-ofthe-art results.
KG-FIT: Knowledge Graph Fine-Tuning Upon Open-World Knowledge
Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE) techniques are crucial in learning compact representations of entities and relations within a knowledge graph, facilitating efficient reasoning and knowledge discovery. While existing methods typically focus either on training KGE models solely based on graph structure or fine-tuning pre-trained language models with classification data in KG, KG-FIT leverages LLM-guided refinement to construct a semantically coherent hierarchical structure of entity clusters.
IncomeSCM: From tabular dataset to time-series simulator and causal estimation benchmark
Evaluating observational estimators of causal effects demands information that is rarely available: unconfounded interventions and outcomes from the population of interest, created either by randomization or adjustment. As a result, it is customary to fall back on simulators when creating benchmark tasks. Simulators offer great control but are often too simplistic to make challenging tasks, either because they are hand-designed and lack the nuances of real-world data, or because they are fit to observational data without structural constraints. In this work, we propose a general, repeatable strategy for turning observational data into sequential structural causal models and challenging estimation tasks by following two simple principles: 1) fitting real-world data where possible, and 2) creating complexity by composing simple, hand-designed mechanisms. We implement these ideas in a highly configurable software package and apply it to the well-known Adult income data set to construct the IncomeSCM simulator. From this, we devise multiple estimation tasks and sample data sets to compare established estimators of causal effects. The tasks present a suitable challenge, with effect estimates varying greatly in quality between methods, despite similar performance in the modeling of factual outcomes, highlighting the need for dedicated causal estimators and model selection criteria.
Refusal in Language Models Is Mediated by a Single Direction Andy Arditi
Conversational large language models are fine-tuned for both instruction-following and safety, resulting in models that obey benign requests but refuse harmful ones. While this refusal behavior is widespread across chat models, its underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this work, we show that refusal is mediated by a one-dimensional subspace, across 13 popular open-source chat models up to 72B parameters in size. Specifically, for each model, we find a single direction such that erasing this direction from the model's residual stream activations prevents it from refusing harmful instructions, while adding this direction elicits refusal on even harmless instructions. Leveraging this insight, we propose a novel white-box jailbreak method that surgically disables refusal with minimal effect on other capabilities. Finally, we mechanistically analyze how adversarial suffixes suppress propagation of the refusal-mediating direction. Our findings underscore the brittleness of current safety fine-tuning methods. More broadly, our work showcases how an understanding of model internals can be leveraged to develop practical methods for controlling model behavior.
Proximal Causal Inference with Text Data
Recent text-based causal methods attempt to mitigate confounding bias by estimating proxies of confounding variables that are partially or imperfectly measured from unstructured text data. These approaches, however, assume analysts have supervised labels of the confounders given text for a subset of instances, a constraint that is sometimes infeasible due to data privacy or annotation costs. In this work, we address settings in which an important confounding variable is completely unobserved. We propose a new causal inference method that uses two instances of pre-treatment text data, infers two proxies using two zero-shot models on the separate instances, and applies these proxies in the proximal g-formula. We prove, under certain assumptions about the instances of text and accuracy of the zero-shot predictions, that our method of inferring text-based proxies satisfies identification conditions of the proximal g-formula while other seemingly reasonable proposals do not. To address untestable assumptions associated with our method and the proximal g-formula, we further propose an odds ratio falsification heuristic that flags when to proceed with downstream effect estimation using the inferred proxies. We evaluate our method in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings--the latter with real-world clinical notes from MIMIC-III and open large language models for zeroshot prediction--and find that our method produces estimates with low bias. We believe that this text-based design of proxies allows for the use of proximal causal inference in a wider range of scenarios, particularly those for which obtaining suitable proxies from structured data is difficult.
Scan Order in Gibbs Sampling: Models in Which it Matters and Bounds on How Much
Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most statistical guarantees are only for random scan. While it has been conjectured that the mixing times of random scan and systematic scan do not differ by more than a logarithmic factor, we show by counterexample that this is not the case, and we prove that that the mixing times do not differ by more than a polynomial factor under mild conditions. To prove these relative bounds, we introduce a method of augmenting the state space to study systematic scan using conductance.
CaptainCook4D: A Dataset for Understanding Errors in Procedural Activities
Following step-by-step procedures is an essential component of various activities carried out by individuals in their daily lives. These procedures serve as a guiding framework that helps to achieve goals efficiently, whether it is assembling furniture or preparing a recipe. However, the complexity and duration of procedural activities inherently increase the likelihood of making errors. Understanding such procedural activities from a sequence of frames is a challenging task that demands an accurate interpretation of visual information and the ability to reason about the structure of the activity. To this end, we collect a new egocentric 4D dataset CaptainCook4D comprising 384 recordings (94.5 hours) of people performing recipes in real kitchen environments. This dataset consists of two distinct types of activities: one in which participants adhere to the provided recipe instructions and another in which they deviate and induce errors. We provide 5.3K step annotations and 10K finegrained action annotations and benchmark the dataset for the following tasks: error recognition, multi-step localization and procedure learning