We propose a new framework for formulating optimal transport distances between Markov chains. Previously known formulations studied couplings between the entire joint distribution induced by the chains, and derived solutions via a reduction to dynamic programming (DP) in an appropriately defined Markov decision process. This formulation has, however, not led to particularly efficient algorithms so far, since computing the associated DP operators requires fully solving a static optimal transport problem, and these operators need to be applied numerous times during the overall optimization process. In this work, we develop an alternative perspective by considering couplings between a "flattened" version of the joint distributions that we call discounted occupancy couplings, and show that calculating optimal transport distances in the full space of joint distributions can be equivalently formulated as solving a linear program (LP) in this reduced space. This LP formulation allows us to port several algorithmic ideas from other areas of optimal transport theory. In particular, our formulation makes it possible to introduce an appropriate notion of entropy regularization into the optimization problem, which in turn enables us to directly calculate optimal transport distances via a Sinkhorn-like method we call Sinkhorn Value Iteration (SVI). We show both theoretically and empirically that this method converges quickly to an optimal coupling, essentially at the same computational cost of running vanilla Sinkhorn in each pair of states. Along the way, we point out that our optimal transport distance exactly matches the common notion of bisimulation metrics between Markov chains, and thus our results also apply to computing such metrics, and in fact our algorithm turns out to be significantly more efficient than the best known methods developed so far for this purpose.

In real-world applications, the distribution of the data, and our goals, evolve over time. The prevailing theoretical framework for studying machine learning, namely probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, largely ignores time. As a consequence, existing strategies to address the dynamic nature of data and goals exhibit poor real-world performance. This paper develops a theoretical framework called "Prospective Learning" that is tailored for situations when the optimal hypothesis changes over time. In PAC learning, empirical risk minimization (ERM) is known to be consistent.

Since the weak convergence for stochastic processes does not account for the growth of information over time which is represented by the underlying filtration, a slightly erroneous stochastic model in weak topology may cause huge loss in multi-periods decision making problems. To address such discontinuities Aldous introduced the extended weak convergence, which can fully characterise all essential properties, including the filtration, of stochastic processes; however was considered to be hard to find efficient numerical implementations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric called High Rank PCF Distance (HRPCFD) for extended weak convergence based on the high rank path development method from rough path theory, which also defines the characteristic function for measure-valued processes. We then show that such HRPCFD admits many favourable analytic properties which allows us to design an efficient algorithm for training HRPCFD from data and construct the HRPCF-GAN by using HRPCFD as the discriminator for conditional time series generation. Our numerical experiments on both hypothesis testing and generative modelling validate the out-performance of our approach compared with several state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its potential in broad applications of synthetic time series generation and in addressing classic financial and economic challenges, such as optimal stopping or utility maximisation problems.

Observable operator models (OOMs) and related models are one of the most important and powerful tools for modeling and analyzing stochastic systems. They exactly describe dynamics of finite-rank systems and can be efficiently and consistently estimated through spectral learning under the assumption of identically distributed data. In this paper, we investigate the properties of spectral learning without this assumption due to the requirements of analyzing large-time scale systems, and show that the equilibrium dynamics of a system can be extracted from nonequilibrium observation data by imposing an equilibrium constraint. In addition, we propose a binless extension of spectral learning for continuous data. In comparison with the other continuous-valued spectral algorithms, the binless algorithm can achieve consistent estimation of equilibrium dynamics with only linear complexity.

We present a new family of exchangeable stochastic processes, the Functional Neural Processes (FNPs). FNPs model distributions over functions by learning a graph of dependencies on top of latent representations of the points in the given dataset. In doing so, they define a Bayesian model without explicitly positing a prior distribution over latent global parameters; they instead adopt priors over the relational structure of the given dataset, a task that is much simpler. We show how we can learn such models from data, demonstrate that they are scalable to large datasets through mini-batch optimization and describe how we can make predictions for new points via their posterior predictive distribution. We experimentally evaluate FNPs on the tasks of toy regression and image classification and show that, when compared to baselines that employ global latent parameters, they offer both competitive predictions as well as more robust uncertainty estimates.

The Schrödinger Bridge (SB) problem offers a powerful framework for combining optimal transport and diffusion models. A promising recent approach to solve the SB problem is the Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF) procedure, which alternates between Markovian and reciprocal projections of continuous-time stochastic processes. However, the model built by the IMF procedure has a long inference time due to using many steps of numerical solvers for stochastic differential equations. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Discrete-time IMF (D-IMF) procedure in which learning of stochastic processes is replaced by learning just a few transition probabilities in discrete time. Its great advantage is that in practice it can be naturally implemented using the Denoising Diffusion GAN (DD-GAN), an already well-established adversarial generative modeling technique. We show that our D-IMF procedure can provide the same quality of unpaired domain translation as the IMF, using only several generation steps instead of hundreds.

Neural Processes combine the strengths of neural networks and Gaussian processes to achieve both flexible learning and fast prediction in stochastic processes. However, a large class of problems comprises underlying temporal dependency structures in a sequence of stochastic processes that Neural Processes (NP) do not explicitly consider. In this paper, we propose Sequential Neural Processes (SNP) which incorporates a temporal state-transition model of stochastic processes and thus extends its modeling capabilities to dynamic stochastic processes. In applying SNP to dynamic 3D scene modeling, we introduce the Temporal Generative Query Networks. To our knowledge, this is the first 4D model that can deal with the temporal dynamics of 3D scenes. In experiments, we evaluate the proposed methods in dynamic (non-stationary) regression and 4D scene inference and rendering.

We analyze in a closed form the learning dynamics of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for a single layer neural network classifying a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture where each cluster is assigned one of two labels. This problem provides a prototype of a non-convex loss landscape with interpolating regimes and a large generalization gap. We define a particular stochastic process for which SGD can be extended to a continuous-time limit that we call stochastic gradient flow. In the full-batch limit, we recover the standard gradient flow. We apply dynamical mean field theory from statistical physics to track the dynamics of the algorithm in the high-dimensional limit via a self-consistent stochastic process. We explore the performance of the algorithm as a function of control parameters shedding light on how it navigates the loss landscape.

In this paper, a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) model for Baxter permutations (BPs), termed BP process (BPP) is proposed and applied to relational data analysis. The BPs are a well-studied class of permutations, and it has been demonstrated that there is one-to-one correspondence between BPs and several interesting objects including floorplan partitioning (FP), which constitutes a subset of rectangular partitioning (RP). Accordingly, the BPP can be used as an FP model. We combine the BPP with a multi-dimensional extension of the stick-breaking process called the block-breaking process to fill the gap between FP and RP, and obtain a stochastic process on arbitrary RPs. Compared with conventional BNP models for arbitrary RPs, the proposed model is simpler and has a high affinity with Bayesian inference.

We first review the notation introduced in the main body for convenience. S denote a context and target set respectively. Later, as is common in recent meta-learning approaches, we will consider predicting the target set from the context set Garnelo et al. [3, 4]. The measurable sets of Σ are those which can be specified by the values of the function at a countable subset I X of its input locations. Since in practice we only ever observe data at a finite number of points, this is sufficient for our purposes. Hence we may think of these stochastic processes as defined by their finite-dimensional marginals. We now define what it means to condition on observations of the stochastic process P. Let p(y|X) denote the density with respect to Lebesgue measure of the finite marginal of P with index set X (we assume these densities always exist). Strictly speaking, this is non-standard terminology, since P is the law of a stochastic process.