AI scientists are sceptical that modern models will lead to AGI

Tech companies have long claimed that simply expanding their current AI models will lead to artificial general intelligence (AGI), which can match or surpass human capabilities. But as the performance of the most recent models has plateaued, AI researchers doubt that today's technology will lead to superintelligent systems. In a survey of 475 AI researchers, about 76 per cent of respondents said it was "unlikely" or "very unlikely" that scaling up current approaches will succeed in achieving AGI. The findings are part of a report by the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, an international scientific society based in Washington DC. This is a notable change in attitude from the "scaling is all you need" optimism that has spurred tech companies since the start of the generative AI boom in 2022.