How Humans Process Uncertain Knowledge: An Introduction

The questions of how humans process uncertain information is important to the development of knowledge-based systems in term of both knowledge acquisition and knowledge representation. This article reviews three bodies of psychological research that address this question: human perception, human probabilistic and statistical judgement, and human choice behavior. The general conclusion is that human behavior under certainty is often suboptimal and sometimes even fallacious. The requirements for a system designed to reduce the effects of human factors in the processing of uncertain knowledge are introduced.