MaNo: Exploiting Matrix Norm for Unsupervised Accuracy Estimation Under Distribution Shifts

Leveraging the model's outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground-truth labels.Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. Our findings motivate our proposed method \method{} that \textbf{(1)} applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and \textbf{(2)} takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that \method{} achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.