Understanding Scaling Laws with Statistical and Approximation Theory for Transformer Neural Networks on Intrinsically Low-dimensional Data

When training deep neural networks, a model's generalization error is often observed to follow a power scaling law dependent both on the model size and the data size. Perhaps the best known example of such scaling laws are for transformer-based large language models (**LLMs**), where networks with billions of parameters are trained on trillions of tokens of text. Yet, despite sustained widespread interest, a rigorous understanding of why transformer scaling laws exist is still missing. To answer this question, we establish novel statistical estimation and mathematical approximation theories for transformers when the input data are concentrated on a low-dimensional manifold. Our theory predicts a power law between the generalization error and both the training data size and the network size for transformers, where the power depends on the intrinsic dimension d of the training data.