When can Regression-Adjusted Control Variate Help? Rare Events, Sobolev Embedding and Minimax Optimality

This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in reducing variance. We examine a prototype estimation problem that involves simulating the moments of a Sobolev function based on observations obtained from (random) quadrature nodes. Firstly, we establish an information-theoretic lower bound for the problem. We then study a specific quadrature rule that employs a nonparametric regression-adjusted control variate to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo simulation.