How Powerful are Performance Predictors in Neural Architecture Search?

Early methods in the rapidly developing field of neural architecture search (NAS) required fully training thousands of neural networks. To reduce this extreme computational cost, dozens of techniques have since been proposed to predict the final performance of neural architectures. Despite the success of such performance prediction methods, it is not well-understood how different families of techniques compare to one another, due to the lack of an agreed-upon evaluation metric and optimization for different constraints on the initialization time and query time. In this work, we give the first large-scale study of performance predictors by analyzing 31 techniques ranging from learning curve extrapolation, to weight-sharing, to supervised learning, to zero-cost proxies. We test a number of correlation- and rank-based performance measures in a variety of settings, as well as the ability of each technique to speed up predictor-based NAS frameworks.