When Lower-Order Terms Dominate: Adaptive Expert Algorithms for Heavy-Tailed Losses

We consider the problem setting of prediction with expert advice with possibly heavy-tailed losses, i.e., the only assumption on the losses is an upper bound on their second moments, denoted by $\theta$. We develop adaptive algorithms that do not require any prior knowledge about the range or the second moment of the losses. Existing adaptive algorithms have what is typically considered a lower-order term in their regret guarantees. We show that this lower-order term, which is often the maximum of the losses, can actually dominate the regret bound in our setting. Specifically, we show that even with small constant $\theta$, this lower-order term can scale as $\sqrt{KT}$, where $K$ is the number of experts and $T$ is the time horizon. We propose adaptive algorithms with improved regret bounds that avoid the dependence on such a lower-order term and guarantee $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\theta T\log(K)})$ regret in the worst case, and $\mathcal{O}(\theta \log(KT)/\Delta_{\min})$ regret when the losses are sampled i.i.d.