Many classification algorithms, including the support vector machine, boosting and logistic regression, can be viewed as minimum contrast methods that minimize a convex surrogate of the 0-1 loss function. We characterize the statistical consequences of using such a surrogate by providing a general quantitative relationship between the risk as assessed using the 0-1 loss and the risk as assessed using any nonnegative surrogate loss function. We show that this relationship gives nontrivial bounds under the weakest possible condition on the loss function--that it satisfy a pointwise form of Fisher consistency for classification. The relationship is based on a variational transformation of the loss function that is easy to compute in many applications. We also present a refined version of this result in the case of low noise. Finally, we present applications of our results to the estimation of convergence rates in the general setting of function classes that are scaled hulls of a finite-dimensional base class.

We argue that K-means and deterministic annealing algorithms for geometric clustering can be derived from the more general Information Bottleneck approach. If we cluster the identities of data points to preserve information about their location, the set of optimal solutions is massively degenerate. But if we treat the equations that define the optimal solution as an iterative algorithm, then a set of "smooth" initial conditions selects solutions with the desired geometrical properties. In addition to conceptual unification, we argue that this approach can be more efficient and robust than classic algorithms.

A general linear response method for deriving improved estimates of correlations in the variational Bayes framework is presented. Three applications are given and it is discussed how to use linear response as a general principle for improving mean field approximations.

In this paper we obtain convergence bounds for the concentration of Bayesian posterior distributions (around the true distribution) using a novel method that simplifies and enhances previous results. Based on the analysis, we also introduce a generalized family of Bayesian posteriors, and show that the convergence behavior of these generalized posteriors is completely determined by the local prior structure around the true distribution. This important and surprising robustness property does not hold for the standard Bayesian posterior in that it may not concentrate when there exist "bad" prior structures even at places far away from the true distribution.

We interpret nonnegative matrix factorization geometrically, as the problem of finding a simplicial cone which contains a cloud of data points and which is contained in the positive orthant. We show that under certain conditions, basically requiring that some of the data are spread across the faces of the positive orthant, there is a unique such simplicial cone. We give examples of synthetic image articulation databases which obey these conditions; these require separated support and factorial sampling. For such databases there is a generative model in terms of'parts' and NMF correctly identifies the'parts'. We show that our theoretical results are predictive of the performance of published NMF code, by running the published algorithms on one of our synthetic image articulation databases.

In the problem of probability forecasting the learner's goal is to output, given a training set and a new object, a suitable probability measure on the possible values of the new object's label. An online algorithm for probability forecasting is said to be well-calibrated if the probabilities it outputs agree with the observed frequencies. We give a natural nonasymptotic formalization of the notion of well-calibratedness, which we then study under the assumption of randomness (the object/label pairs are independent and identically distributed). It turns out that, although no probability forecasting algorithm is automatically well-calibrated in our sense, there exists a wide class of algorithms for "multiprobability forecasting" (such algorithms are allowed to output a set, ideally very narrow, of probability measures) which satisfy this property; we call the algorithms in this class "Venn probability machines". Our experimental results demonstrate that a 1-Nearest Neighbor Venn probability machine performs reasonably well on a standard benchmark data set, and one of our theoretical results asserts that a simple Venn probability machine asymptotically approaches the true conditional probabilities regardless, and without knowledge, of the true probability measure generating the examples.

There exist many different generalization error bounds for classification. Each of these bounds contains an improvement over the others for certain situations. Our goal is to combine these different improvements into a single bound. In particular we combine the PAC-Bayes approach introduced by McAllester [1], which is interesting for averaging classifiers, with the optimal union bound provided by the generic chaining technique developed by Fernique and Talagrand [2]. This combination is quite natural since the generic chaining is based on the notion of majorizing measures, which can be considered as priors on the set of classifiers, and such priors also arise in the PACbayesian setting.

In order to understand AdaBoost's dynamics, especially its ability to maximize margins, we derive an associated simplified nonlinear iterated map and analyze its behavior in low-dimensional cases. We find stable cycles for these cases, which can explicitly be used to solve for Ada-Boost's output. By considering AdaBoost as a dynamical system, we are able to prove Rätsch and Warmuth's conjecture that AdaBoost may fail to converge to a maximal-margin combined classifier when given a'nonoptimal' weak learning algorithm.

We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. We derive upper and lower relative loss bounds for a class of universal learning algorithms involving a switching dynamics over the choice of the experts. On the basis of the performance bounds we provide the optimal a priori discretization for learning the parameter that governs the switching dynamics. We demonstrate the new algorithm in the context of wireless networks.

This paper is concerned with transductive learning. Although transduction appears to be an easier task than induction, there have not been many provably useful algorithms and bounds for transduction. We present explicit error bounds for transduction and derive a general technique for devising bounds within this setting. The technique is applied to derive error bounds for compression schemes such as (transductive) SVMs and for transduction algorithms based on clustering.